The annual game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Navy Midshipmen has always been symbolic but this year it appears significant to the College Football Playoff picture. The Fighting Irish (6-1), ranked No. 12 in the Week 9 AP Top 25 Poll likely can't afford another loss if they want to make the postseason, meanwhile the No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are undefeated looking to secure its first 7-0 start since 1978.
The game, which kicks at Noon (ABC/ESPN+) from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey opened with Notre Dame as double digit favorites. The line moved to as high as Notre Dame -13.5 with the total at 51.5 as of Thursday.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Notre Dame -13.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -550, Navy +380
Over/under: 52.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Notre Dame -6.5 (-135), Navy +6.5 (+105)
First-half moneyline: Notre Dame -375, Navy +260
First-half total points: O/U 26.5 points (Over -115/Under -105)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: No. 24 Navy +13.5 vs. No. 12 Notre Dame
Navy's rushing attack has been exceptionally strong, diverse and difficult to defend. The Midshipmen have eight players with at least 10 carries this season, and five have accumulated over 150 yards. Quarterback Blake Horvath has been a dual-threat phenom, rushing for 621 yards and averaging 7.9 yards per carry (second only to Boise State's Ashton Jeanty) while scoring 10 rushing touchdowns, tied for third among quarterbacks. Navy has scored at least 34 points in every game this season behind its potent run game.
An underrated aspect contributing to Navy's offensive success is its significant advantage in net field position (+6.2, ranked 12th), a crucial factor in the matchup with Notre Dame . Navy consistently starts drives in better positions due to effective special teams play and defensive stops. Strong performances in punting, kickoffs and returns allow Navy to begin offensive drives with favorable field position, while also pinning opponents deep. Additionally, Navy's defense forces turnovers (second in turnover margin) and makes critical stops, further shifting field position in its favor.
Simply put, better starting field position increases scoring opportunities by shortening the distance to the end zone. By consistently starting drives in advantageous positions, Navy can apply pressure on Notre Dame's defense, potentially leading to mistakes or breakdowns on the Irish side. Superior field position allows Navy to control the game's tempo, manage the clock effectively and dictate the flow of play.
Notre Dame's defensive ranks 121st in starting field position, meaning opponents often begin drives in advantageous positions. This mismatch gives Navy a strategic edge. Navy's ground game will be like an unstoppable tide. With a field-position edge and Horvath leading the charge, don't be shocked if the Midshipmen pull off the upset. Taking the points is smart, but an outright win (+380) is also definitely in play.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Navy has gone over the total in six straight games, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS (Indiana 6; Miami leads with 10)
Navy is one of two teams to go over in every game this season (Miami).
Navy has covered by an average of 14.2 PPG this season, the second-highest cover margin in FBS (Indiana, +16.6)
Notre Dame is 11-2 ATS against ranked teams since 2022, best in FBS (min. 5 games)
Navy is 12-4-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2021, third-best in FBS.