The Alabama Crimson Tide are in unfamiliar territory. Following last week's loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, the Tide dropped eight spots in the AP rankings to No. 15 and currently would likely be on the outside looking in at the expanded College Football Playoff. Jalen Milroe's Heisman hopes also took a hit, as he fell from 12-1 to 40-1 to take the award.
However, Alabama is -115 to eventually make the playoff field and is among the top nine in terms of odds to win the national championship (20-1).
Meanwhile, the Missouri Tigers were able to slip past Auburn last weekend to improve to 6-1 on the season, but they still dropped two spots in the rankings to fall just outside the top 20. They are +380 underdogs to reach the CFP.
No. 15 Alabama heads into Saturday's matchup as a 16.5-point favorite over the No. 21 Tigers. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Alabama -16.5
Moneyline: Alabama -800, Missouri +500
Over/under: 51.5 (Over -105/Under-115)
First-half spread: Alabama -9.5 (-115), Missouri +9.5 (-105)
First-half moneyline: Alabama -650, Missouri +400
First-half total points: 26.5 (Over -125/Under +102)
Pamela Maldonado's pick: No. 21 Missouri at No. 15 Alabama (-16.5)
The line for the Alabama versus Missouri game has seen some movement, opening at Alabama -14 and pushing to -16.5 after Missouri quarterback Brady Cook's status moved from questionable to doubtful. This matchup is significantly impacted by injuries to key players, which could favor Alabama's chances of covering the spread as double-digit favorites.
Brady Cook has been a vital part of Missouri's offense, ranking sixth in the SEC in passing yards before his recent ankle injury against Auburn. Despite his injury, Cook led the comeback, showcasing his importance to the team. With his status now doubtful for the game against Alabama, Missouri will rely on backup quarterback Drew Pyne. Pyne's performance has been less effective compared to Cook, as evidenced by his struggles during Cook's absence against Auburn where he completed only 47.6% of his passes. The ground game will also be impacted as Cook was the team's third-leading rusher.
Nate Noel, Missouri's leading rusher, has been a significant contributor to their ground game, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and amassing 503 rushing yards this season. He will also be out this weekend and that will place additional pressure on backup running backs like Marcus Carroll, who has been less productive with 4.9 yards per carry compared to Noel. That said, Carroll is the team's leading rushing scorer.
Alabama had its own challenges with consistency this season but remains a strong opponent at home, boasting a 4-0 straight-up record at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The absence of Missouri's key offensive players could make it easier for Alabama to control the game defensively and exploit Missouri's weakened offense.
Despite Alabama's recent struggles against the spread (3-4 ATS overall) and failing to cover as double-digit favorites (2-3 ATS) in recent games, the weakened state of Missouri's offense might provide Alabama with a better opportunity to bounce back after facing some of the best defensive fronts in the country.
The injuries to Cook and Noel significantly hinder Missouri's offensive capabilities, which was already struggling (64th in net EPA per play). Now Missouri's defense will face more pressure to keep Alabama's high-powered offense in check and this situation can lead to defensive fatigue, especially if they are on the field for extended periods due to quick offensive turnovers or three-and-outs.
The defense might need to adopt a more aggressive approach to compensate for the offensive deficiencies, such as attempting more high-risk plays like blitzes or trying to force turnovers. While this can sometimes yield positive results, it also increases the risk of big plays by Alabama if these strategies fail.
Even a strong Mizzou defensive unit, fourth in defensive success, can be compromised when forced to compensate for an ineffective offense over an entire game. It's Alabama or pass.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Alabama is 15-1 SU and 7-9 ATS after a loss since 2010 (three straight ATS losses), with the under hitting 12 times.
Alabama is 11-6-1 ATS at home since 2022, tied for 10th in FBS over that span.
Missouri is 5-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, fifth-best in FBS over that span.
Missouri is the only SEC team winless ATS in conference play (0-3) this season and is 3-1 ATS in all other games.
Alabama is 0-3 ATS in its last three games, The Tide haven't lost four straight ATS since Sept.-Oct. 2007.
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