As the calendar flips to 2025 and the NBA season heat up, so too do the races for the league's biggest awards. The competition is fierce and even slight changes can swing the betting odds dramatically.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are the favorites for MVP, but is this going to be a two-man race or do others like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama or Jayson Tatum have a chance to sneak into the picture?
Here's the latest on that and every other major NBA award race.
Regular-season MVP
Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-150)
In the hunt: Nikola Jokic (+130)
Longer shots of interest: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+2000), Jayson Tatum (+4000), Victor Wembanyama (+10,000)
For the first time in a year-and-a-half, Gilgeous-Alexander has surpassed Jokic as the favorite to win MVP. SGA is having an amazing season, flirting with career-highs across the board, good for third in the NBA in both scoring (31.3 PPG) and steals (2.0 SPG) and the lead in some of the composite box score stats like win shares (Basketball-reference; 7.7 win shares, ahead of second place Jokic's 7.1) and Value Over Replacement Player (basketball-reference; 4.3 VORP, tied for first with Jokic).
Gilgeous-Alexander is also on a career-best pace in measured impact; the Thunder are outscoring their opponents by a whopping 17.1 points per 100 possessions with SGA on the court, and the team is 16.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Both of those marks lead the Thunder by a significant margin, and are among the best in the NBA. In a real sense, these +/- stats help measure just how valuable SGA has been, as the clear most valuable player on arguably the best team in the league.
Jokic, though, has been even more valuable with even more impressive stats than SGA. While the Nuggets are outscoring their opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court, the team falls off a cliff when he sits, being outscored by more than 14 points per 100 possessions without him for an on/off +/- of 25.3 points per 100. Absurd stuff. Jokic is also top-3 in the league in scoring (31.5 PPG, second), rebounds (13.0 RPG, third) and assists (9.7 APG, second) and his composite box score metrics are, on the whole, better than SGA's as well.
The difference between them is team success, where SGA's Thunder are the top seed in the Western Conference with the best scoring margin (+12.1 PPG) in the NBA, while Jokic's Nuggets fluctuate between the fourth and seventh seed in the West and are struggling to remain a top-10 team in the league. Jokic's level of individual play is probably still a bit better than SGA's, but in order to overtake him in the MVP race Jokic will need his Nuggets to start winning more.
The other players mentioned here have some similarities but ultimately trail in a major way in one of those two areas. Antetokounmpo, the NBA's leading scorer, and Wembanyama, the league leader in blocked shots, each have statistical footprints that can battle Jokic for best in the league. However, both of their teams are struggling to get over .500, and both players will remain MVP long shots unless and until their teams rise dramatically in the rankings.
Tatum is the best player on the defending champions, and the Celtics are in the mix for the best record this season as well, but his statistical impact just can't compare. Realistically, it is hard to imagine a path for Tatum to actually win the MVP against this level of competition. If Giannis and Wemby's teams went on hot streaks that got them near the top of the league, though, they would become viable candidates that could actually win... but only if their teams start winning. A lot.
Until then, it's a two-man race between SGA and Jokic. SGA has the lead by a small margin, but conversely, that might mean there is more future value in Jokic right now. He is the reigning MVP and still has a reasonable chance to average a triple-double for the season, and right now you can get him at plus-money, a relative rarity.
Rookie of the Year
Leader: Zach Edey (+115)
In the hunt: Alexandre Sarr (+300), Yves Missi (+650), Jaylen Wells (+750)
Long shots of interest: Stephon Castle (+3000), Dalton Knecht (+4000)
This has been one of the most volatile races in the league, and it will likely continue to be moving forward. There is no clear favorite, because no rookie has really stood out from his peers. Jared McCain was on his way to doing so before his knee injury, and his absence opens the door for everyone else.
Edey was the preseason favorite before his own injuries, and he has the occasional big game -- like dropping 21 and 16 on the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 26 -- but on the whole he is consistently solid but unspectacular.
Sarr, the No. 2 overall pick, has had stretches of defensive brilliance and has scored in double figures in 12 straight games as an every-night starter for the Wizards.
Missi is another strong shot blocker, and likely a better rebounder than Sarr if not quite the scorer.
Wells is starting for the Grizzlies, and is a better scorer than the big men ahead of him on this list. He has three games of 20-plus points, including dropping a career-high 30 on the Kings last week.
Castle was my RoY favorite on NBA draft night, and he briefly became the favorite again after McCain's injury. Since then, he moved back to the bench for the Spurs, with Devin Vassell and Chris Paul handling primary perimeter duties, which has hurt his upside. His season averages are still competitive with those ahead of him, though, and if he regains starter minutes in the short term I'd say Castle is the highest value in this group as a potential winner with long shot odds.
Knecht doesn't have the consistent role for the Lakers to seriously challenge, but we saw earlier in the year that if he gets starter minutes he is an offensive explosion waiting to happen. Between Nov. 16 and 29 he had four games of 20 or more points, including a 37-point detonation with nine 3-pointers. That keeps him at least in the discussion, even if as a long shot.
Sixth Man of the Year
Leader: Payton Pritchard (-250)
In the hunt: De'Andre Hunter (+350)
Long shots of interest: Amen Thompson (+1200)
The Sixth Man race is typically volatile as well. Last season, the leader in the race changed on a monthly basis before Naz Reid came from nowhere at the end to win it. This season, Pritchard has been the odds-on favorite for the last month-plus after his 3-point barrage to start the season. Pritchard is still worthy of consideration, but he has cooled enough from his hot start that his averages of 15.2 PPG and 3.6 3PG should not be enough for him to be such a heavy favorite.
This is particularly true because Hunter has been scorching since the end of November. In his past 18 games, he is averaging 21.1 PPG and 3.1 3PG himself to close the gap with Pritchard. With the difference in juice, Hunter is the much better value pick right now.
There are many other sixth men that could work their way back into this race. I focus on Thompson here, because he's playing a major role on a Rockets team that has surprised many as one of the best teams in the West this season. Thompson has massive upside; the No. 3 overall pick in last season's NBA draft has two 20-10 double-doubles in his past three games, and three double-doubles in his past five. He could make a legit run at this award.
Most Improved Player
Leader: Cade Cunningham (+200)
In the hunt: Jalen Johnson (+425), Tyler Herro (+425)
Long shots of interest: Evan Mobley (+1000), Norman Powell (+1000), Victor Wembanyama (+1400), Dyson Daniels (+1600), Jalen Williams (+2000)
While Herro and Johnson are both having excellent seasons, Cunningham has the inside track on this award because he's a different caliber of player. While Johnson and Herro have All-Star upside, Cunningham is showing he has All-NBA upside.
After all the injuries of his early career, his glow-up this season with excellent individual stats as well as improved team success for the Pistons makes it difficult for any of the others to overcome. Even though he has the shortest odds, Cunningham is still getting 2-to-1 odds against his win, so I have him as the best futures value in this category.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-350)
Long shots of interest: Evan Mobley (+1200), Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1200), Rudy Gobert (+3000)
This is the least competitive of the races. Wembanyama was the odds-on favorite entering the season, and as he continues to increase his lead in blocks per game he is only widening his lead for this award.
Any of Mobley, 2023 DPoY Jackson or 4-time and reigning DPoY Gobert would make worthy winners in most seasons. But unless Wemby suffers injury or major slippage, he is so far in the lead that it's hard to imagine anyone else challenging him this season.
Coach of the Year
Leader: Kenny Atkinson (-275)
Long shots of interest: Jamahl Mosley (+900), Taylor Jenkins (+1200), Ime Udoka (+1400), Mark Daigneault (+3300)
Atkinson is the runaway leader in this race because he has the Cavaliers turning in the best record in the NBA, a fairly shocking result. Daigneault's Thunder are right behind the Cavs in the standings, but the Thunder were the top seed in the West last season and Daigneault won last season's CoY award as a result. With that in mind, their strong play this season isn't enough to boost Daigneault the way the Cavs' results are elevating Atkinson.
Mosley might be the best value on the board, because he has kept the Magic in the hunt for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs despite the Magic being racked by injuries. If the Magic make a run when Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner return to the lineup, Mosley could give Atkinson the biggest challenge for this award.
Udoka also offers strong value, because it's so surprising that the Rockets are sitting near the top of the West. If he keeps them there, and the Cavaliers slide at all, Udoka could close the gap on Atkinson as well.