With a quadrupleheader of NBA action coming to you on ESPN and ABC on Saturday, it's time for our NBA Betting Insiders to break down which teams are likely to exceed, or underperform, their win total lines.
How should bettors handle surprise successes like the Detroit Pistons or Sacramento Kings? What can we expect from cellar-dwellers looking forward to the NBA draft lottery?
Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Andre Snellings, Steve Alexander and Jim McCormick have their picks for which teams they would take the over or under on their season total wins.
Odds by ESPN BET
Over bets to make on the win total
Toronto Raptors OVER 23.5 wins (-140)
Strength of schedule isn't always a predictive path, but it helps that the Raptors' remaining opponents have a current winning percentage of 43.6%. This is the lowest opponent winning percentage for the rest of the season of all 30 NBA teams. Toronto sits 16th in offensive rating over the past 10 games, evidence there is more potential here than your traditional bottom-dweller. Yes, this team has only 12 wins right now, but the path to 24 is not only among the "easiest" in the league, this is a younger team likely to get healthier in the coming weeks. -- McCormick
Detroit Pistons OVER 40.5 wins (-115)
The Pistons have already topped last season's win total and currently sit as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. A big reason for their success is Cade Cunningham, who's the frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award. Detroit has made strides on both ends of the court, and their rest-of-season schedule isn't too tough. This puts them in a great position to close out the season strong. -- Moody
Sacramento Kings OVER 44.5 wins (+105)
This new Kings squad is playing considerably better since the coaching change to Doug Christie, notably on defense. The recent road win in Boston, holding the defending champs to 97 points, was telling. We love Malik Monk averaging 18 PPG and 6 APG as a starter. These Kings should win at least 45 times, pass each of the Los Angeles clubs, and earn a top-six seed, too. -- Karabell
Memphis Grizzlies OVER 51.5 wins (Even)
The Grizzlies are healthy and rolling behind the trifecta of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. They've won six of their past 10 games and sit at 29-15, meaning they need only 23 more wins in the second half to hit the mark. As long as the big three stay healthy, the Grizzlies will be a team that no one will want to face in the playoffs. -- Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 64.5 wins (+115)
The Cavaliers and Thunder are both 36-7, and both have the same line of 64.5 wins. I like both to go over, but if I can only choose one I pick the Thunder. Their 83.7% win percentage has them on pace for 69 wins, and that is with them not having any games with both starting big men Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein available at the same time. They've been winning by being the best small-ball team in the NBA, sort of like how the Warriors were with their "Death Lineup" during their championship heyday. Adding two elite big men to that mix should only make them better, helping push them to 65 wins or beyond. -- Snellings
Under bets to make on the win total
Stephen Curry drains it from downtown
Charlotte Hornets UNDER 23.5 wins (+105)
Brandon Miller is out for the season due to right wrist surgery and I don't see Nick Smith Jr., Josh Green or Cody Martin adequately filling the void. Add in the fact that we've yet to see LaMelo Ball finish out a season, and it's hard to imagine the 11-win Hornets winning 13 more games over the course of this one, despite the surprising rise of center Mark Williams. Charlotte is about to make a serious run at improving their NBA draft lottery odds with the hopes of landing Duke star Cooper Flagg. -- Alexander
New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 25.5 wins (-130)
The Pelicans are on their longest win streak of the season, but this team has been plagued by injuries and constant lineup changes. In what feels like a lost season in a tough Western Conference, trade rumors are swirling in New Orleans. With their focus likely shifting to better positioning in the NBA draft lottery and facing one of the toughest remaining schedules in the league, I'm leaning toward the under here. --Moody
Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 35.5 wins (-135)
It hasn't been much fun watching this 76ers team, riddled with injuries and lineup changes through the first months of the season. The biggest problem, of course, is the absence of the constantly injured Joel Embiid, and there is no telling when -- or if -- he returns to play. Newcomer Paul George has shot poorly so far and has struggled to remain healthy as well. These 76ers can't just flip a switch and win, regardless of personnel, and likely will not approach 40 wins. -- Karabell
Golden State Warriors UNDER 42.5 wins (-105)
The Warriors started the season fast, winning 12 of their first 15 games in a way that, with their personnel and style of play, seemed sustainable. It wasn't. The Dubs have since lost 19 of their past 28 games and fallen out of the top-10 in the Western Conference. There is little reason for optimism based on their on-court play, where it appears opposing teams have figured out how to take Stephen Curry out of games and the rest of the lineup hasn't been good enough to keep them competitive. Add in the advanced age of their two best players in Curry and Draymond Green, and it feels like the Warriors could end up approaching the trade deadline as potential sellers instead of buyers. -- Snellings
Sacramento Kings UNDER 44.5 wins (-135)
To get to 45 wins, the Kings will need to play at a 58% clip the rest of the way. This is the equivalent of playing like a 47 to 48-win team over the final 38 games on their schedule. The team has talent, but also the ninth-toughest remaining opponent schedule, with those teams averaging a 51.1% winning percentage. A tough schedule includes multiple meetings with the Cavaliers, Thunder and Knicks. -- McCormick