Daniel Ricciardo will return to an F1 cockpit at Silverstone on Tuesday in a test for Red Bull. On paper the outing is officially a Pirelli tyre test, but it is clear from conversations with Ricciardo and those close to him and with key figures at Red Bull that there's a lot more riding on it than collecting data for F1's tyre supplier.
Last month Ricciardo told ESPN the "fairytale" end to his F1 career would be a return to Red Bull in the future. As reported previously, sources have told ESPN that the Australian driver, still one of the grid's most popular and marketable, is open to the prospect of a year at the company's second team, AlphaTauri, to prove he is over the two miserable seasons he spent at McLaren in 2021 and 2022.
Tuesday will be Ricciardo's first run in an actual 2023 car since he returned to Red Bull as its third driver (essentially the backup to Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez). It will be the team's first chance to see him back in that environment.
Red Bull boss Christian Horner said it will give the team vital insight.
"It's an important test for Pirelli, but it's also going to be great seeing him back in a Red Bull car and seeing him where he's at, both on pace and mentally, physically and to get his feedback on this car as well," Horner said at Silverstone on Sunday.
"So I think it's a good opportunity for him to get back behind a wheel of a car that's just won the British Grand Prix."
According to a report on F1.com last month, AlphaTauri have made it clear a 2024 seat is available for Ricciardo should he want it. Dutch driver Nyck de Vries is under enormous pressure and would be the obvious candidate to make way.
Various reports have suggested De Vries might not see out the season at AlphaTauri, but Ricciardo seems an unlikely candidate to replace him permanently in the short term. Not only has he found the time away from racing refreshing mentally but Ricciardo also has commercial obligations in 2023 that would be difficult to get out of.
Seeing Ricciardo back at the second team in 2024, when it should have a new name and a closer link to Red Bull, seems very likely. Although that might seem a backwards step for an eight-time race winner and a man considered one of the grid's best drivers, there's an obvious carrot at the end of that option. Perez's Red Bull contract runs until the end of 2024, so a successful season at the company's junior outfit would open a path for him to return in 2025.
It is understood that Ricciardo has dropped any ambitions of racing elsewhere as he does not want to miss out on the opportunity to drive for the team likely to be the grid's leading outfit for the foreseeable future. His decision to leave the team for Renault in 2019 is already one of F1's most debated (and criticised) driver moves.
Anything earlier than 2025 seems unlikely when considering a Red Bull return. Perez's form since finishing second at May's Miami Grand Prix has been appalling, but there is no sign from anything Red Bull has said privately or publicly that the Mexican driver is currently under threat of losing his race seat. Although that could change if the downward spiral continues through the summer months, at Silverstone Horner suggested Perez simply needs one clean weekend at the upcoming Hungarian Grand Prix to wipe the slate clean.
On top of that are the doubts about Ricciardo himself. Bar his shock win at the 2021 Italian Grand Prix, the Ricciardo who drove for McLaren looked like a shell of his former self. Horner has said Ricciardo acts as if he's gotten his "mojo" back since returning to Red Bull colours but the reigning world champions are unlikely to make a move as drastic as replacing Perez with Ricciardo on the basis of some successful Pirelli tyre tests -- there is no guarantee which version of Ricciardo they would be getting.
Then there are the other driver options Red Bull might have available a year from now. The company has made overtures to Lando Norris before, and former Red Bull driver Alex Albon is currently in the form of his life at Williams.
In contrast to Pierre Gasly's failure to perform in 2018, it is clear when talking to key figures at Red Bull that Albon's unsuccessful tenure with the team was something it could have handled better. It is telling that Albon retained a link to Red Bull when he first signed for Williams in 2022, and although that no longer exists, the Thai driver has maintained a good relationship with Horner and Helmut Marko since leaving.
Ricciardo's name might even not be on a shortlist for Red Bull as it stands, which is why a year at AlphaTauri is so essential. Horner said as much after Sunday's race at Silverstone.
When asked about Ricciardo's comments about a dream Red Bull return, Horner replied: "It's not something that we're planning, that's for certain. It was right to give him the opportunity this year to remain within the team and keep him around the sport. I think it would have been a loss to the sport for him just to disappear.
"I didn't recognise the Daniel of the last couple of years, so I'll be very interested to see what kind of job he does on Tuesday."
Ricciardo is playing the long game. It was obvious when he left McLaren that his options were limited, but it is also clear he now feels confident he is on the right path to a return, however long it might take.