The original focus of this piece was intended to look at the managerial tendencies, with a fantasy slant, of the six skippers referenced below. And, it still will.
However, the first month of the 2018 season has been extraordinary, for more than just what has happened on the diamond. Through April 24, there have been a record 28 postponements because of rain, snow and even ice falling on the Rogers Centre roof in one instance. Another 28 have played with a game-time temperature below 40 degrees, with several more plummeting into the 30s as the game progressed. Mother Nature has been in the headlines more than any manager or player. Well, except Shohei Ohtani.
Conventional wisdom is pitchers have the advantage over hitters in cooler temperatures. Some of it is science as baseballs don't carry as well in cold air. On paper, this should suppress homers, hence runs. Pitchers can stay looser in the cold, heading to the warm clubhouse if desired between innings while position players try to stay loose doing jumping jacks between pitches on the field then shiver on the bench. Plus, since hitters are such creatures of habit, wearing extra layers, not to mention ski masks probably inhibits their level of concentration.
Since 2000, there have been three seasons with a comparable number of cold-temperature games played in the first month of the campaign. Let's compare the stats of the frigid affairs to those played in more temperate conditions for each, using a similar number of overall games to what has transpired so far this year.
2003
This season tracks perfectly with temperature, as the ERA increases with temperature. Homers are lowest in the coolest conditions and highest in the warmest.
2007
Hmm, 2007 doesn't support the cold-weather narrative as well as 2003. ERA is the second lowest, but homers are the second most.
2013
Uh oh, 2013 is counterintuitive, at least in terms of ERA. Science still comes through as long balls were lower in the cold, but more runs were scored on a per game basis in the coldest contests.
The elephant in the room is sample size. Not only are the number of games limited, they're biased. Each season, the quality of the teams enduring the cold, or benefiting from the warmth are different. Dome and retractable roof clubs are counted with the 70-plus, contributing to the bias.
The above doesn't disprove the notion pitchers have the advantage during inclement conditions. Maybe the ERA in the 17 games below 40 degrees in 2013 would have been higher had they been played in more temperate conditions. The larger sample of contests played in the 40s exhibited the lowest ERA.
Big-picture wise, there's ample data to suggest temperatures influence outcomes, especially homers. However, in small samples, there could be outliers so individual results should be analyzed on a team-by-team basis.
With that in mind, here's the current season's table, though April 23.
2018
Note the number of cold games is at least 50 percent greater this season, amplifying just how historically poor the conditions have been. As expected, home runs are way down in those contests, though run-scoring matches the warmest conditions.
Here's the data per team, through April 24, including runs per game.
With that as a backdrop, let's examine some teams most influenced by Mother Nature.
Fewest games played
Twins (18)
Cubs, White Sox, Tigers (20)
Indians, Royals, Mets, Rays (21)
Counting stats for players on these clubs are obviously lacking. If you invested in Brian Dozier, Kris Bryant, Nicholas Castellanos, Francisco Lindor, etc., you could be lagging in the standings. What's done is done for head-to-head leagues. However, take solace in picking up extra games down the line when postponements are made up.
For those in rotisserie scoring leagues, don't sweat early season standings. Focus on keeping a healthy roster, you'll eventually catch up. Regardless of format, keep in mind not every player will participate in every make-up game, especially during doubleheaders. Even with the added off days this season, some teams will now be forced to play long stretches of games, sending a regular to the bench more often than if a regularly scheduled off day were still available.
It might not seem like much, but three or four extra games can influence season-long outcomes. Dealing away a player on the Athletics or Rangers for a comparable one from the above teams could seem like a wash, but the extra games give you a potential edge.
Most cold-weather games
Detroit Tigers -- The men from Motown have played the most contests under 40 and under 50 degrees at game time. The biggest takeaway from the cold-weather data is home runs are tempered in the cold, so don't sweat only one homer from Castellanos. In fact, be encouraged he has slugged six doubles with a pair of triples. Most interesting is Castellanos' already increasing fly ball rate continues to climb while his hard-hit rate is an astounding 52 percent. That will regress, but for his career, Castellanos carries a well above-average hard-hit clip so expect his lofted balls to begin clearing the fences as the mercury rises.
Minnesota Twins -- Keeping in mind the Twins were the home team for the series with the Indians in Puerto Rico, Minnesota has played only six games at Target Field. Home-field advantage is talked about more in other sports, but it's significant in baseball as well.
On the average, a hitter's and a pitcher's skill are 5 percent superior for home tilts. So, not only have the aforementioned Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and their mates endured some frigid conditions, they've played fewer games, especially at home. Kepler is especially intriguing since he's off to a hot start, despite the stop-and-go schedule played thus far. Acquiring Kepler via trade or as a free agent (available in just under half of ESPN leagues) could pay dividends.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Apparently, the memo concerning weather affecting play failed to make it to the Steel City as the Pirates have surprised everyone with their strong start at the plate, even though 14 or their 22 games started with a game-time temperature below 50 degrees.
The pitchers really haven't taken advantage of the conditions, sporting a middling 4.27 ERA to date. The bats have done the job, averaging an impressive 4.7 runs a game, notwithstanding a bottom 10 home run rate. Some of the low power output is the homer-suppressing nature of PNC Park, but some is weather. It hasn't affected Gregory Polanco, but Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell and Colin Moran can in part blame the cold air for their paucity of pop. Acquiring someone from that trio shouldn't cost much, yet could yield profit as the Midwest warms.
Manager tendencies
It was an unusual offseason as four of the six hires were on teams with playoff aspirations. The trends to look from new field bosses are how they manage the bullpen and the running game, along with general tendencies for platoons and resting regulars.
Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox -- When you have Craig Kimbrel at your disposal, managing the late innings is straightforward. Though, in the occasions where Kimbrel isn't available, Joe Kelly has been asked to handle the ninth.
During spring training, Cora said he expected 20/20 seasons from four players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Nunez and Xander Bogaerts. If asked to guess the players without knowing, Betts and Benintendi would have been no-brainers. Expecting 20 homers from Nunez is a stretch so guessing Jackie Bradley Jr. would have been justifiable.
Bogaerts is the intriguing one, more so for steals than homers. While the extent wasn't known, it was clear Bogaerts was playing hurt most of last season, never fully recovering from being hit on the wrist in May. His batted-ball profile has always been misleading since his outstanding plate coverage results in some weakly hit balls the opposite way, many landing safely. In 2016, Bogaerts was beginning to display the ability to turn on a mistake, sending it onto, or over the Green Monster. His hurt wrist sapped his ability to do this much of 2017.
Before hurting his ankle just nine games into the season, Bogaerts reminded us of his fledgling power, slugging .711 with a healed wrist. Suddenly, swatting 20 homers seemed plausible, and it still does as the 25-year-old shortstop is expected back in the lineup by the end of April. It remains to be seen if he'll run, but a 41-for-51 success rate for his career affords Cora the go-ahead to give Bogaerts the green light.
In large part because Cora must find playing time for everyone, he has been giving more days off to the outfielders than the previous staff. A rejuvenated Hanley Ramirez is the root cause, but based on some of Cora's comments in the spring, his philosophy is to give more frequent rest to everyone. This affects Betts the most as he rarely sat under John Farrell. The hope, from a real and fantasy sense is a fresher player produces better numbers, mitigating the production lost from more at-bats. Keep this in mind when Dustin Pedroia returns as Cora will be forced to divvy up time in his infield as well.
Aaron Boone, New York Yankees -- Like Cora, Boone has it easy in the ninth with Aroldis Chapman. What we still don't know is how long his leash is as Chapman has curiously faltered a few times, even with his electric stuff. Based on usage patterns and effectiveness, David Robertson appears next in line, followed by Tommy Kahnle and Dellin Betances, though Kahnle is on the disabled list dealing with a sore shoulder and biceps tendinitis.
With a lineup of mashers, Boone isn't likely to risk outs on the base paths. Thus far, the men in pinstripes are mid-pack with 10 steals. The curious thing is the most any single player has is two, with Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner each bagging a pair. It's early, but one explanation is Boone isn't dismissing the running game, but rather picking and choosing his spots. This bodes well for Gregorius and Judge, among others.
Heading into the season, the Yankees were concerned about their infield, sans shortstop, knowing they had reinforcements along the way. Veterans Brandon Drury, Neil Walker and Adam Lind were brought in. How quickly Boone turned to the rookies was something to monitor. With Greg Bird on the shelf, Boone called upon Tyler Austin to share first base with Walker, then an injury to Brandon Drury instigated the recall of Miguel Andujar. Gleyber Torres' blistering start at Triple-A forced the brass' hand, with Boone installing the prized prospect at the keystone. Injuries played a large part in accelerating the transition from veterans to rookies, though Boone's trust in Austin suggests he'll give Andujar and Torres every opportunity to stick for good.
Dave Martinez, Washington Nationals -- Martinez's bullpen deployment wasn't as cut and dried. Sure, Sean Doolittle ended the season as closer, but he's a southpaw and right-hander Ryan Madson has closing experience. However, in February, Martinez said Doolittle was the closer with Madson the primary setup man. That's the way it's been so far, though Madson has earned a pair of saves when Doolittle was unavailable. Reading between the lines, while some managers might have asked their closer to pitch, Martinez elected to trust his setup man to do the job. Madson is in a bit of a rut, but assuming he rights the ship, he's viable in deeper leagues or as a roster fill-in for daily leagues on slates with a lot of off days.
Pop quiz, what team leads the majors in stolen bases? Yes, the Nationals are the runaway leader with 27 through April 24, six ahead of the White Sox. Trea Turner was expected to run, and he is with nine steals, tied for the team lead with Michael Taylor. Even if Turner drops to the two-hole when Adam Eaton returns, Martinez has seen enough to let him keep running. While it seems obvious Martinez should let his speedsters run, it's still comforting to have it witnessed in the box score.
Mickey Callaway, New York Mets -- Callaway is the final manager brought onto a team with postseason objectives. He already has made one tough decision, sending Matt Harvey to the bullpen, opening a rotation spot for the returning Jason Vargas. Even though Callaway hasn't dialed back Noah Syndergaard's velocity as some though he would, Thor has yet to pitch more than six innings, keeping his workload in check, coming off a season where he threw just 30 1/3 innings. In contrast, Jacob deGrom has worked at least seven innings in his past two starts, showing Callaway isn't afraid to ride his aces in an era where many managers pull pitchers earlier than ever.
The Mets only have eight steals, but that's more a reflection of their personnel than it is Callaway. In fact, seeing two early steals from Todd Frazier is a good thing. From a fantasy perspective, for Frazier to be an asset, he needs to run to offset his low batting average. He's not a burner, but it's nice to know his typical low double-digit swipes is in play.
Ron Gardenhire, Detroit Tigers -- Hiring the grizzled veteran might seem odd for a rebuilding organization, but the Tigers hope they're retooling, not starting over. Plus, Gardenhire knows the division intimately. As alluded to earlier, the Tigers spotty schedule has made it difficult to get a handle on much as they've played only 20 games, mostly in trying conditions.
However, that didn't prevent Gardenhire and the front office from losing patience with the sluggish start from Mike Mahtook. Many considered Mahtook to be a nice target in deeper leagues, anticipating he plays the full season so management can get a read on his future with the club. Chances are, he'll be back, but the message is don't expect the Tigers to give players a longer leash, just because they don't expect to challenge for a playoff berth. This extends to Leonys Martin, JaCoby Jones and Dixon Machado, as well as pitcher Matthew Boyd.
Gabe Kapler, Philadelphia Philles -- Hopefully, you didn't give up on Kapler when he made a pitching change without anyone warming up, not to mention lifting Aaron Nola prematurely on Opening Day. There have been other gaffes, but currently, the Phillies are fighting again, winning 14 of 22 through April 24. Obviously, the jury is still out, but at minimum, Kapler has his team playing hard. He's faced with the same challenges as Cora with respect to finding playing time for a logjammed infield and outfield.
The Phillies are fourth in stolen bases, distributing 16 among four players, led by five from Cesar Hernandez and three each from Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery. Hernandez's early running is encouraging as while he has averaged 17 steals the past three seasons, he has yet to eclipse 20. The bags from Hoskins and Kingery suggest they won't be held back, Kapler is letting them demonstrate their skills.
While it can be argued he had no alternative, it's still nice to see Kapler didn't lose trust in Hector Neris after his closer cost him his first victory in that Nola game. Since that fateful opener, Neris has tossed 8 1/3 innings with a 1.08 ERA and four saves.