Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe and ESPN NBA Insider Bradford Doolittle.
Kemba Walker has averaged 40.6 FG% and 33.8 3-FG% for his career, but after 13 games this season, those numbers are up to 47.0 FG% and 41.3 3-FG%. In turn, he is averaging 24.7 PPG -- way up from 20.9 PPG last season. What do you think his FG% and PPG will be at season's end and what do you think of his overall fantasy value?
Joe Kaiser: You can trace Walker's improved 3-point shooting back to the summer of 2015, when he dedicated the offseason to shedding the label of poor perimeter shooter. The hard work paid off immediately, as he notched career highs from the field (42.7 percent) and 3-point range (37.1 percent) last season while also making a career-best 2.2 3-PPG.
I bring this up as a reminder that Walker's improved shooting isn't a new thing; it started before last season, held up over 81 games, and is merely carrying over into this season. In fact, all indications are that his jumper is better than ever. While I don't expect him to shoot this well all season, I do believe he'll reach 45 FG% and 40 3-FG% for the first time in his career. Achieving that would make him a top-20 fantasy player, when you consider how well he's also contributing with rebounds (4.3 RPG), assists (5.5 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG).
Kyle Soppe: Walker is playing a bit over his head right now, but not by as much as you might think. The Hornets have picked up the pace a touch, as they are averaging nearly two more possessions per game than they did a year ago. With more possessions and the assumed growth, it stands to reason that Walker's fantasy value is on the rise.
He has adjusted his game to be more friendly in terms of analytics, as nearly 74 percent of his field goal attempts this season are coming from closer than eight feet or further than 24, allowing him to maximize his TS%. A career-high six free throws per game should help stabilize his scoring, even if his FG% drop, and that makes him a threat to sustain top-15 production (and maybe top-10) for the entirety of the season.
I'll say he splits the difference between his current 47 FG% and his career 40.6 FG% and sets a new career-high in points per game. Give me 22.5 points on 43.8 percent shooting from the field.
Bradford Doolittle: There is not much in Walker's early-season performance that strikes me as unsustainable. He's the best player on a good team and, at 26, is just hitting his stride. The 3-point percentage may be a little high, but it's an area of improvement he's focused on the last couple of offseasons, and this year's accuracy builds upon the gains he made in 2015-16. It's legit. He's become nearly automatic when left alone in catch-and-shoot situations, and when he's running the pick-and-roll, teams have generally come over the top of picks set for him, whereas they use to duck under and dare him to shoot. The way defenses play a guy is a strong indicator of how the league sees a player's skill set at a given time.
The Hornets have played well for the most part, though they've slipped a little of late. But with Walker on the floor, the offense has averaged around 112 points per 100 possessions, an elite figure. So there is no reason for Walker's role to change or for Steve Clifford to shuffle the players around him. I see Walker averaging a little over 24 points this year and shooting about 46 percent. He's solidly in the second tier of stars in the league and is one of the top-six or -seven point guards. He's productive, efficient -- no, really -- and well-rounded. He doesn't put up elite assist numbers but is on the next level down. He is also a good source of steals and gets a lot of rebounds for a player his size.