Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN NBA writer Ohm Youngmisuk and ESPN Fantasy's Greg Rosenstein and Kyle Soppe.
Derrick Favors is set to return Wednesday from the knee injury that hampered him (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 46.9 FG%) early this season and then cost him the past month of game action. Just 25 years old, the 2010 No. 3 overall pick has seven seasons under his belt but has yet to truly break out as a fantasy star. Do you think his numbers the past two seasons (about 16 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG) represent his ceiling? Or will he give fantasy owners more in the near or distant future?
Ohm Youngmisuk: The 6-foot-10 Favors has always carried a ton of potential. And he will have nights when he displays that potential, like the 35 and 13 he dropped against Indiana last season. But he isn't consistent enough to average a double-double, and the Jazz are Gordon Hayward's team. Not to mention that Rudy Gobert has really come on, especially of late. Entering Wednesday, Gobert had four straight double-doubles while remaining every bit the Stifle Tower with 16 blocks during that span.
Rodney Hood, when healthy, is averaging 15.7 points this season. And when George Hill gets healthy again, the point guard should pick up where he left off and be another consistent scoring option for the Jazz. This all means Favors will have his breakout-type nights but will also have a ceiling that is capped due to the emerging talent around him.
Greg Rosenstein: News that Favors is set to return from his bruised left knee injury is music to the ears of fantasy basketball owners. He is an effective low-post scorer (69.1 percent in his career on shots within three feet of the hoop), who is capable of a double-double performance each night. His numbers are down in a multitude of categories in 2016-17, but if history is an indicator, those should improve, as he gets back to full health and carves out a role in the Jazz offense. How much of an increase is the question -- and I don't see it being significant.
Favors has played only 11 games thus far, but that's enough of a sample size to be a bit wary about any breakout occurring. His numbers per 100 possessions are encouraging -- 22.8 points and 14.3 rebounds per game -- but in coach Quinn Snyder's extremely slow-paced system, he won't get to that level often. Utah's offense is the second slowest in the NBA at only 93.7 possessions a game, limiting the fantasy opportunity for talented players such as Favors.
Also keep in mind that Favors isn't the go-to threat he once was. Hill is more shoot-first than pass-first as their new starting point guard, and the Jazz, overall, boast a lot of different scoring options with Hayward, Gobert and an on-the-rise talent in Hood. Look for Favors' overall production to increase and be an asset to fantasy owners but not to the level we may have hoped.
Kyle Soppe: Favors is just 25 years old, so it may seem a bit extreme to say that we've already seen his production ceiling, but I think that's pretty accurate. Yes, he has room for growth, but what signs do we have of it coming? His past two season were nearly clones of each other, and his per-minute numbers in the early going this season weren't much different.
What I fear here is that there is more risk than reward for fantasy owners. His average shot distance continues to rise, and until he becomes a 3-point threat, that is statistically a bad sign. His "big man" stats have only so much upside with the presence of Gobert, while his offensive numbers can be only so good with Hayward's usage and Utah's painfully slow pace. Favors is a talented player, and while fantasy owners will certainly welcome him back tonight, I don't think you're looking at a ton of upside here. That said, we pretty much know what he is and there is value in that.