Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe and DFS expert Renee Miller.
Preseason breakout candidate Nikola Jokic has taken flight over his past six games, averaging 17.0 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 3.3 APG and 1.0 BPG. That production is similar to what we've seen from Paul Millsap this season: 17.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.0 BPG. Now Millsap has the edge in SPG (1.7, 0.6) and 3-PPG (1.0, 0.3), but Jokic has the edge in season percentages (54.3 FG%, 45.9 FG%; 82.5 FT%, 74.0 FT%). Is it fair to compare Jokic to Millsap in the short and/or long term?
Joe Kaiser: I don't think it's fair -- not yet -- and the reason is because of age, minutes and consistency. As long as Millsap is healthy, he's a player we can expect to play right around 33 minutes a night just about every game of the season. His statistical averages may be a tick down from previous years, but they are still very solid and check off a lot of different categories. He has proved himself as an All-Star caliber player in the NBA for the past seven seasons.
On the flip side, Jokic is only 21, and his minutes fluctuate from week to week, depending on how he's viewed at that particular time by Denver Nuggets coach Michael Malone; just a few weeks ago, plenty of people were asking me if he was someone they had to own or if he was droppable. Also, we mentioned that Millsap is averaging 33 minutes per game this season, and that's a number that Jokic has reached only once in 22 games. While Jokic's 23.9 MPG could rise in the coming weeks and months if he continues to produce, there's just as good a chance that his minutes dwindle if he goes into another slump.
Kyle Soppe: I think so. We were all high on Jokic coming into the season, and he hasn't disappointed, but my answer here has more to do with not liking what I've seen from Millsap.
With Al Horford taking his talents to Boston this summer, the hope was that Millsap (much like Horford) would thrive in his new high-usage role, but what I've seen is a player willing to settle. With Dwight Howard clogging the paint, Millsap's average distance of shot is up 13.2 percent over his career high that he set last season, and considering that he has failed to show us a consistent jumper, I see no reason to think that his FG% improves in a major way.
Jokic, on the other hand, has shown an increase in aggressiveness and efficiency in his four games since returning from a wrist injury that sidelined him for a week (he's shooting 67.5 percent from the field and has taken at least 10 shots in three straight), something that I think earns him playing time as the season progresses. I like this comparison very much and Jokic could be even more involved in this offense if/when Danilo Gallinari misses time.
Renee Miller: I don't think there's a fantasy player out there who wouldn't love to compare Jokic to Millsap. We've been rooting for Jokic since last season!
However, the facts that coach Malone hasn't really stabilized the Nuggets' frontcourt rotation this season and Jokic missed time with a wrist injury put a damper on the raw statistics. But the real death blow to the comparison is minutes per game. Millsap, in his 11th season, averages 33.0 minutes per game, while Jokic is at just 23.9 MPG. Fantasy value is about opportunity and ability, so even though Jokic's player efficiency rating (21.1, 37th in the league), assist ratio (21.8) and 60.8 true shooting percentage are great, he won't rise to the next level until he sees more time on the court.
One of the most frustrating things about fantasy is that coaches care more about winning than about stats, and as good as Jokic has been in the past four games, the Nuggets have lost three of four.
The last aspect of the comparison is competition. Millsap essentially has none, with Mike Muscala firmly ensconced in a limited bench role, while Denver is also giving almost equal minutes to Kenneth Faried (22.4) and Darrell Arthur (14.6) at the 4. Denver is still working a lot of things out, and it's often the case that a very talented basketball player's fantasy value suffers during that process.
I'm hopeful given what we've seen from Jokic this season that a long-term comparison to one of the best all-around power forwards in the game sticks with him.