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Read below for points-league rankings and reaction.
Points-league rankings and reaction
Points-based fantasy basketball is my first fantasy sports love. The first fantasy game that I ever played was points-based NBA, with weightings that emphasized non-scoring categories more, and this produced results that were extremely intuitive to me as an NBA fan.
This was in 2000, my first year in grad school and toward the end of my last season as a competitive athlete. I was ripe to get back into watching the NBA on a heavy basis, and that fantasy basketball league turned my interest into an obsession. I ordered the NBA League Pass and did my best to watch every game in the NBA, and I shot up the rankings in that national points-based league. It was outstanding fun.
Partially because of that background, points-based fantasy NBA is still my favorite way to play fantasy sports. It allows me to build a team in my favorite sport that has players valued similarly to expected real-life value and get all of the excitement and nuance of a busy NBA schedule with enough redundancy to allow skill to trump luck in most situations (outside of injury). Add weekly transactions, in fact, and points-based fantasy basketball shares a lot of the positives that draw people to fantasy football.
When preparing for points-based fantasy basketball, it's all about volume and usage. Rotisserie-style games can be strongly influenced by specialists in relatively sparse categories such as steals, blocks or 3-pointers or can be affected in a usually negative way if an otherwise great player struggles in a shooting percentage. But in points leagues, it's about heavy volume in as many ways as possible.
In addition, all fantasy projections depend strongly upon health and availability. It doesn't matter how great a player is if he is too injured to be on the court when you need him. Although we can't predict the future, some players have enough injury history to shape how we view them in either a positive or a negative direction.
This is my first day taking over these rankings, continuing the great work done by Jim McCormick. Expect to see some changes in the rankings that reflect where my projections differ from Jim's. This is in conjunction with the norm: pointing out players who move in the rankings because of recent events. Below you'll find the rankings, but first, here is a look at some big movers in this week's rankings.
Point guard
Kyle Lowry takes a huge jump in the rankings this week because he is finally starting to play closer to the level that we expected coming into the season. After averaging only 11.9 points and 6.6 assists in his first nine games, Lowry has awakened to average 18.1 points and 7.9 assists in his past seven outings. This isn't quite the almost 22 PPG and 7 APG that he averaged the past two seasons, but it's at least on the street.
Mike Conley has been working through a sore Achilles all season but now is shut down indefinitely with the injury and won't even be re-evaluated for almost two weeks. The uncertainty about the length of his absence -- and whether the injury will continue ability to affect his play -- makes him a big slider this week.
I'm a believer in Lonzo Ball. He has traditional rookie ups-and-downs, but his ups are incredibly high, and even his lows are usually livable. He's locked in as the man for the Los Angeles Lakers, so even if he has growing pains, his upside is huge, real and likely to be realized on some level before the season ends.
Shooting guard
James Harden shoots up to No. 2 on the list and is in strong consideration for the top spot. He jumps over the Pelicans' bigs (Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins) on the strength of his proven ability to operate with an absurd volume for an entire season and his history of health. Harden entered this season having missed only two total games in his past three seasons, a history of reliability that is easy to build upon. Chris Paul could influence Harden's numbers slightly, but in Houston, everything still runs through The Beard.
D'Angelo Russell had to have his knee scoped, and his return is unknown at this point.
Eric Gordon drops with Paul's return because unlike Harden, he is not at the focal point of every offensive possession. Paul's presence sends Gordon back to the bench and eats into his minutes and shots.
Small forward
Kawhi Leonard sneaks up a few spots because a report came out last week that coach Gregg Popovich said Leonard will return "sooner rather than later."
Tim Hardaway Jr., like Lowry, makes a big jump because he has turned it around after an awful start and is playing like the high-volume scorer we expected after his big offseason deal.
Over the past 15 days, Robert Covington is 34th in the league in fantasy points scored. The Philadelphia 76ers are extremely fantasy friendly, with several members on this list, which helps Covington and also Dario Saric move up this week.
Power forward
Speaking of the 76ers, Ben Simmons does everything and does it at a very high level. He is one of the top producers in the league thus far this season, as a legit triple-double threat every game.
Blake Griffin is a good scorer, but he isn't scoring in a dominant way. Meanwhile, DeAndre Jordan kills the glass and keeps Griffin from having a strong secondary category. Add Griffin's history of injury and questions about whether he can last a full season with his added responsibilities this season, and Griffin slides a bit in the rankings.
The good news that Leonard might be returning relatively soon means that LaMarcus Aldridge is that much closer to becoming a second option again, which slides him a bit in the rankings.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns is another player who makes a huge leap near the top of the rankings. He has two things going for him, in addition to his high level of play: his yearly split trends and his health. As a rookie, Towns averaged 15.6 points and 9.5 rebounds through his first 41 games, then increased to 21.1 points and 11.4 rebounds in the last 41. As a sophomore, Towns averaged 21.8 points and 11.9 rebounds through his first 41 games, then exploded for 28.4 points and 12.7 boards in the second half of the season. Also, Towns has not missed a game in his NBA career. Put that together, and he's likely to be both available and much more productive moving forward than he has been to date.
Alex Len and Tyson Chandler swap places in the rankings because the Suns are going young, Len has more upside as a scorer, and it just makes sense for Len (and to some extent the recently acquired Greg Monroe) to get the Suns' center minutes moving forward.