Fantasy basketball: What to expect from Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins on new teams

After months of speculation and buildup, the Miami Heat finally found a trade partner for Jimmy Butler, sending the six-time All-Star to Golden State in a trade package that included Andrew Wiggins heading back to Miami.

How will this impact the fantasy hoops landscape and, more specifically, how will it change the production of Butler and Wiggins on their new teams? Let's explore.

Expect more from Butler with the Warriors

This deal was similar to the one we projected in this space as the best-case scenario for Butler. The Warriors were maybe the only team in the NBA with playoffs aspirations, a veteran lineup and the space for Butler to maximize his production within the confines of his new team.

The Warriors' new starting lineup will likely include Butler, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Buddy Hield. The Warriors have struggled all season with teams tilting their defense to take Curry out of the offense because there weren't any other offense creators on the team. Green has been the main floor general for a decade, but without the second scoring threat that Klay Thompson had once represented, opposing defenses could just throw the house at Curry and dare Green to score.

Butler should thrive against these unbalanced defenses. He can create shots for both himself and his teammates off the dribble. And with Hield as the floor spacer and the big men either role players or finishers, there should be enough available shots for Butler to replicate even his max-usage seasons in Miami.

This season Butler has averaged 13.2 FGA, but his max with the Heat was 14.5 FGA in 2021-22. In the three seasons surrounding, Butler averaged 21.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 6.0 APG and 1.8 SPG. Health permitting, those numbers are all in play for Butler with the Warriors.

I'd conservatively estimate Butler as a top-50 fantasy hoops play when healthy with the Warriors, and I don't think his presence notably changes the fantasy outlook of any of his teammates. If anything, Butler's presence could make life a bit easier on Curry, allowing him to do a bit more scoring himself when defenses can't stack against him.

Less scoring for Wiggins in Miami

The Heat have gotten used to playing without Butler, but in the trade package they got some players that could be viable in their rotation. Primarily Wiggins, who may project as their new starting small forward in place of Haywood Highsmith. Wiggins isn't the high-volume scorer he used to be, but -- still only 29 -- he remains an upper-teens scorer on average that is averaging 13.7 FGA... almost the same as Butler.

But unlike Butler, Wiggins won't have any seniority with the Heat and will therefore have to defer to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo in the scoring hierarchy. Instead of the 17.8 PPG he was putting up with the Warriors this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Wiggins as more of a 15-16 PPG guy in Miami.

I don't expect Herro's or Adebayo's value to change very much with Wiggins in the mix, but it could spell the end of the hope that Jaime Jaquez Jr. would return to the form he flashed as a rookie and break out in the second half of the season. Wiggins was tied for 91st in the NBA in fantasy points per game with the Warriors; with the Heat, he may slide to just outside the top 100 and therefore a fringe flex play in standard leagues. -- Snellings

Betting impact

After adding Butler, the odds for the Warriors moved from +4400 to +3300 to win the NBA Championship, +3000 to +2000 to win the Western Conference, and +1800 to +1200 to win the Pacific Division.

Butler should provide a boost to a Warriors team that started the season with a 12-3 record. However, Golden State now finds itself with a 25-24 record entering Wednesday night, having won just 13 of its last 34 games. The only team in league history to start 12-3 or better and miss the playoffs was the Detroit Pistons back in the 1970-71 season.

Butler brings immense playoff experience; he is one of only 20 active players who have played in at least 100 playoff games. The Warriors now have three of them -- Butler (119), Stephen Curry (147) and Draymond Green (157). This wealth of experience will be invaluable in the playoffs, but the trio's health should be a priority, as all three will be at least 35 years old come playoff time.

Butler is an immediate upgrade for the Warriors on the wing and has led a team to the Finals twice in his career. He gives Golden State a better shot at a playoff spot. And with Butler signing a two-year extension with the the Warriors, it appears he's motivated to play winning basketball again. After all, Butler is called "Playoff Jimmy" for a reason. He's one of only 10 players to average more points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

The bottom line: Butler makes the Warriors better, but the Western Conference is loaded with contenders like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets. However, Butler has wanted to leave the Heat for a team with legitimate title aspirations, and now he has that with the Warriors. It's worth betting a few units on them in case they catch lightning in a bottle. -- Moody