Last week, my colleague Jim McCormick wrote about the "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" phenomenon, when it comes to roster management versus free agency. His point, analogizing fantasy basketball to the Philadelphia 76ers, was that you lose a lot of opportunity cost when you give an injured player a draft slot instead of taking a chance on a potentially not-as-well-known guy that could prove to be very productive in their new situation. Along those same lines, I received a user question today and found myself giving similar advice. Here is the question that I received:
"I'm in a 10 team league. H2H most categories. 1 IR spot is held by Rudy Gobert. I have Isaiah Thomas on the bench. I feel like I am risking matchups by not having any production from that spot. Someone offered Elfrid Payton straight up for IT. Thoughts?"
So, this guy just had to add Gobert to his injured slot, which moved Thomas to his bench. He's been offered Payton straight up for Thomas, and wanted my advice. Based on the 2017 ESPN Player Rater for eight-category roto, Thomas ranked ninth overall in 2017 while Payton ranked 21st among point guards alone, and 58th overall. Plus, Thomas was recently spotted doing contact work with George Sibel, which is a positive sign in his recovery. Based on these two things, it could be argued that at this point one should hang onto Thomas.
However, my advice was more along the "bird in the hand" route, as I advised that I'd lean towards trading for Payton. In this particular example, there are just a lot of unknowns for Thomas ... when will he return to the court? How close to 100 percent will he be when he returns? What will his statistical footprint look like for the Cleveland Cavaliers, playing next to LeBron James, as opposed to what it was for the Boston Celtics when he was clearly "the Man"? And in a 10-team league, can one afford to leave a roster spot empty when the competition has impact players in that slot? These unknowns lead me to lean towards going with the safer, available option in Payton as opposed to waiting on the unknown Thomas.
But it could be argued that this approach is better across the board, when making deals. In another example, Gregg Popovich keeps saying that Kawhi Leonard is returning "sooner rather than later", but no date has been given for "sooner". Last year, Leonard ranked seventh in the Player Rater. This year, there are a lot of "lesser" names that currently rank in the top 20, including Victor Oladipo (11th), Kristaps Porzingis (12th), Paul George (13th), Kyrie Irving (14th), Draymond Green (15th), Bradley Beal (16th), Marc Gasol (17th), Robert Covington (18th) and Devin Booker (19th), that I typically wouldn't consider to be on Leonard's level if he were healthy ... but that I would have to seriously consider if someone offered them to me for injured Leonard with an open-ended return date.
I might not trade Leonard for every one of those options, but I'd at least consider and likely counter. Why? Because at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how pretty the player's name is that's sitting on your bench ... as long as he's sitting there, he's not helping your team at all.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
There are three teams that get the short end of the stick with only two games: the Atlanta Hawks, the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors. The Hornets are the hardest hit of the three, as both games are on the road against tough defenses, giving them a rating of only 1 this week. On the other side of the coin, there are 10 teams with four game slates, giving you plenty of options to look for fill-in candidates from. The Warriors especially stand out as the only team to merit a 10 ranking based on matchups this week, but the Clippers quietly ranked a solid eight based on matchups, and they've also got more players that are likely to be available on the free agency wires that could contribute with the volatility in their backcourt. They could be a good place to look for weekly stream options.
Matchup metrics
Last week in this space, Hoops Stats was pointed out as a resource for fantasy sports matchup information. Another such resource, and one that I'm most familiar with in my background, is Rotowire, which breaks down the average production allowed by every team in the NBA. This type of information works hand-in-hand with the ratings of our weekly Forecaster, and in fact helps inform those rankings.
Let's take the example of the Clippers next week, as mentioned above. In our system, they rank an '8' for the week due to a combination of having four games, and playing teams with overall weak defenses like the Lakers, Timberwolves, Mavericks and even the Jazz without Gobert. A closer look, broken down by position, indicates that the Lakers, Mavericks and Timberwolves all rank among the 10 worst defenses against point guards while the Jazz rank as the best defense at that position. Those four teams have all been more middle-of-the-pack against shooting guards, though, with all four ranking between the 13th and 22nd at the position. That type of information could help you decide between Lou Williams and Austin Rivers, for example, as potential stream options.