Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 240 231 -9 9 698 6 61 490 5 2. Jonathan Taylor , IND 161 224 63 9 682 8 25 160 1 3. De'Von Achane , MIA 159 173 14 9 543 2 47 349 2 4. Javonte Williams , DAL 154 156 2 9 586 7 27 187 1 5. Bijan Robinson , ATL 146 169 23 8 538 2 42 323 1 6. Josh Jacobs , GB 144 157 13 8 608 7 24 152 0 7. Chase Brown , CIN 136 115 -21 9 461 4 36 263 1 8. Kyren Williams , LAR 132 127 -5 8 563 6 20 167 1 9. Cam Skattebo , NYG 121 128 6 8 425 5 27 177 1 10. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 120 146 26 8 479 4 25 175 1 11. Saquon Barkley , PHI 116 128 12 8 537 3 23 155 1 12. Ashton Jeanty , LV 114 116 2 8 534 4 21 132 1 13. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 112 108 -4 8 513 3 22 148 1 14. James Cook , BUF 112 152 40 8 631 5 13 88 0 15. Alvin Kamara , NO 109 83 -26 9 479 1 27 208 1 16. Breece Hall , NYJ 107 111 4 8 499 1 22 174 2 17. Rico Dowdle , CAR 107 132 25 9 559 4 17 113 0 18. Jaylen Warren , PIT 104 99 -5 7 425 4 20 133 0 19. Tony Pollard , TEN 102 89 -13 9 512 3 19 140 0 20. D'Andre Swift , CHI 102 112 10 7 434 4 20 130 0 21. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 101 107 5 9 567 4 11 73 0 22. Derrick Henry , BAL 100 106 5 8 506 6 8 58 0 23. Rachaad White , TB 94 85 -9 8 308 4 20 137 1 24. David Montgomery , DET 91 95 4 8 349 5 14 100 0 25. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 87 97 10 7 451 4 10 67 0 26. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 85 75 -10 8 333 3 14 145 1 27. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 84 77 -7 8 236 2 25 169 1 28. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 82 75 -7 7 360 1 18 126 1 29. Jordan Mason , MIN 82 79 -3 8 425 4 11 69 0 30. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 79 83 5 8 445 3 9 65 0 31. Nick Chubb , HOU 75 63 -12 8 376 3 13 87 0 32. RJ Harvey , DEN 74 96 22 9 208 1 21 153 2 33. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 74 66 -9 7 311 5 6 49 1 34. Kareem Hunt , KC 74 81 7 9 292 5 8 60 1 35. Omarion Hampton , LAC 73 77 4 5 289 2 18 118 0 36. Woody Marks , HOU 73 72 -1 8 288 1 16 131 1 37. Bill Croskey-Merritt , WAS 71 78 7 9 395 2 11 70 0 38. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 69 65 -3 9 287 1 20 130 0 39. Kyle Monangai , CHI 67 60 -7 8 294 3 13 87 0 40. Isiah Pacheco , KC 67 60 -6 8 350 1 14 88 0 41. Kimani Vidal , LAC 65 56 -9 6 262 3 10 68 1 42. Bucky Irving , TB 64 72 8 4 311 1 16 106 0 43. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 52 45 -7 7 223 0 17 110 0 44. Jerome Ford , CLE 52 36 -16 8 89 1 20 134 1 45. Dylan Sampson , CLE 51 44 -7 8 128 0 18 121 1 46. Brashard Smith , KC 50 34 -15 9 122 1 17 103 1 47. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 50 52 3 8 269 2 5 34 0 48. Justice Hill , BAL 46 57 11 8 78 0 21 142 0 49. Zonovan Knight , ARI 46 38 -8 6 153 3 7 48 0 50. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 44 47 2 8 167 2 8 51 0 51. Blake Corum , LAR 44 37 -7 8 232 2 6 48 0 52. Emanuel Wilson , GB 40 33 -7 8 182 1 9 58 0 53. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 54. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 55. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 38 39 0 8 75 0 15 127 0 56. Tyjae Spears , TEN 38 44 6 5 132 1 12 83 0 57. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 37 33 -4 9 162 1 7 43 0 58. Michael Carter , ARI 36 32 -4 4 148 1 9 69 0 59. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 33 45 12 9 73 0 15 96 0 60. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 32 32 0 9 5 1 13 111 1 61. Kendre Miller , NO 31 33 2 7 208 1 4 28 0 62. Aaron Jones , MIN 31 35 4 4 119 0 8 62 1 63. Zavier Scott , MIN 31 28 -3 7 97 0 9 75 1 64. Devin Singletary , NYG 30 21 -9 9 163 0 4 37 1 65. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 30 32 2 9 170 0 5 33 0 66. Samaje Perine , CIN 29 34 5 9 151 0 6 48 0 67. Sean Tucker , TB 29 23 -5 8 101 2 3 22 0 68. Tyler Badie , DEN 28 20 -8 8 9 0 14 103 0 69. Ty Johnson , BUF 27 20 -7 8 78 1 7 54 1 70. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 25 30 6 7 154 2 0 0 0 71. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 72. Ray Davis , BUF 23 15 -8 8 95 1 3 30 0 73. Emari Demercado , ARI 22 25 3 7 100 0 4 26 0 74. Antonio Gibson , NE 20 23 3 5 98 1 2 19 0 75. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 76. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 77. Trevor Etienne , CAR 16 10 -6 9 83 1 1 11 0 78. Chris Brooks , GB 15 13 -2 8 10 0 7 50 0 79. DJ Giddens , IND 14 7 -7 7 69 1 1 10 0 80. Ameer Abdullah , IND 14 16 2 5 34 1 3 23 0 81. LeQuint Allen , JAC 13 13 -1 8 25 0 6 39 0 82. Raheem Mostert , LV 13 14 1 5 72 0 3 16 0 83. Jaydon Blue , DAL 12 8 -4 4 98 0 1 5 0 84. Zamir White , LV 12 7 -4 4 46 0 4 25 0 85. Hunter Luepke , DAL 11 13 2 9 9 0 4 28 1 86. Hassan Haskins , LAC 11 8 -2 7 50 0 3 23 0 87. Terrell Jennings , NE 11 15 4 4 64 0 1 6 0 88. Alec Ingold , MIA 11 9 -2 9 4 0 5 47 0 89. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 90. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 10 6 -4 5 64 0 2 10 0 91. Devin Neal , NO 9 7 -2 5 27 0 3 21 0 92. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 9 9 0 4 51 0 2 10 0 93. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 93. Tank Bigsby , PHI 6 12 6 7 45 0 1 5 0 94. Will Shipley , PHI 9 6 -3 6 30 0 3 20 0 95. George Holani , SEA 9 11 2 8 53 0 2 13 0 96. AJ Dillon , PHI 9 8 -1 6 50 0 2 13 0 97. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 9 7 -2 8 15 0 4 28 0 98. Julius Chestnut , TEN 9 4 -5 9 31 1 1 15 0 99. Tyler Goodson , IND 9 4 -5 4 16 0 2 14 1 100. Dylan Laube , LV 8 5 -3 8 25 0 3 22 0 101. Andrew Beck , NYJ 8 11 3 8 0 0 3 23 0 102. Jaret Patterson , LAC 8 7 -1 2 71 0 0 0 0 103. Raheim Sanders , CLE 8 6 -2 1 8 1 0 0 0 104. British Brooks , HOU 8 2 -6 6 9 1 0 0 0 105. Dameon Pierce , HOU 6 3 -3 3 41 0 1 6 0 106. Jaylen Wright , MIA 6 4 -2 2 39 0 1 6 0 107. Cam Akers , MIN 4 7 3 3 20 0 1 6 0 108. Nathan Carter , ATL 4 4 0 3 39 0 0 0 0 109. Brittain Brown , CHI 4 10 6 1 21 0 1 7 0 110. Adam Prentice , DEN 3 3 0 9 17 0 1 5 0 111. Tahj Brooks , CIN 3 2 -1 9 26 0 0 0 0 112. Josh Williams , TB 2 1 -1 2 20 0 0 0 0 113. Jacardia Wright , SEA 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 0 0 114. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 2 0 -2 1 5 0 1 6 0 115. Craig Reynolds , DET 2 0 -1 6 14 0 0 0 0 116. Malik Davis , DAL 1 1 -1 3 14 0 0 0 0 117. C.J. Ham , MIN 1 2 0 2 0 0 1 6 0 118. Jacob Saylors , DET 1 1 0 8 8 0 0 0 0 119. Rasheen Ali , BAL 1 1 -1 8 5 0 0 0 0 120. Roschon Johnson , CHI 1 2 1 5 9 0 0 0 0 121. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 1 1 -1 1 10 0 0 0 0 122. Nyheim Hines , LAC 1 0 -1 3 6 0 0 0 0 123. DeeJay Dallas , CAR 1 0 -1 2 5 0 0 0 0 124. D'Ernest Johnson , ARI 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 124. D'Ernest Johnson , NE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 125. Ulysses Bentley IV , IND 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 126. Velus Jones Jr. , NO 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 127. Kene Nwangwu , NYJ 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 128. Isaac Guerendo , SF 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 129. Avery Williams , NYJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 130. Ty Chandler , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 131. Trey Sermon , PIT 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 132. Khalil Herbert , NYJ 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
