Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 335 329 -6 13 989 9 83 656 5 2. De'Von Achane , MIA 220 254 34 12 829 4 57 416 3 3. Bijan Robinson , ATL 219 255 36 12 869 5 55 414 1 4. Jonathan Taylor , IND 218 298 80 12 977 10 34 220 1 5. Javonte Williams , DAL 200 195 -5 12 837 8 33 228 2 6. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 195 271 76 12 748 5 47 341 2 7. Ashton Jeanty , LV 189 178 -11 12 773 5 45 289 2 8. Chase Brown , CIN 188 167 -21 12 699 4 51 368 1 9. Josh Jacobs , GB 184 191 7 11 805 9 31 199 0 10. Kyren Williams , LAR 175 185 10 12 775 8 25 206 1 11. James Cook , BUF 174 223 49 12 948 6 25 174 0 12. Saquon Barkley , PHI 173 169 -4 12 831 4 35 253 2 13. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 171 169 -2 12 781 6 31 209 1 14. Derrick Henry , BAL 162 177 15 12 772 10 14 102 0 15. Rico Dowdle , CAR 162 183 21 13 817 4 30 198 1 16. Breece Hall , NYJ 154 168 14 12 775 3 29 226 2 17. D'Andre Swift , CHI 152 158 6 11 692 6 30 203 0 18. Jaylen Warren , PIT 147 144 -3 11 646 6 27 175 1 19. TreVeyon Henderson , NE 136 148 13 13 551 3 32 211 1 20. Kenneth Gainwell , PIT 132 134 2 12 339 3 42 271 1 21. Quinshon Judkins , CLE 131 146 15 11 748 6 14 95 0 22. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 130 135 5 12 682 5 19 126 0 23. Tony Pollard , TEN 130 108 -22 12 641 3 27 196 0 24. Alvin Kamara , NO 129 101 -29 11 582 2 32 235 1 25. Woody Marks , HOU 128 109 -19 12 566 4 21 161 2 26. Rachaad White , TB 128 115 -13 12 437 4 30 209 1 27. David Montgomery , DET 126 130 4 12 493 6 20 140 0 28. Kareem Hunt , KC 124 123 -1 12 533 7 14 99 1 29. Cam Skattebo , NYG 121 128 6 8 425 5 27 177 1 30. RJ Harvey , DEN 112 129 17 12 324 3 30 207 2 31. J.K. Dobbins , DEN 110 116 6 10 636 4 12 79 0 32. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 110 110 0 11 476 1 27 177 2 33. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 108 88 -20 10 411 5 18 174 1 34. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 107 107 1 11 504 7 7 62 1 35. Kyle Monangai , CHI 106 109 3 12 517 5 15 112 0 36. Kimani Vidal , LAC 105 98 -8 9 496 5 14 89 1 37. Bam Knight , ARI 103 87 -16 10 308 5 19 142 1 38. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 98 92 -6 11 486 1 25 173 0 39. Jordan Mason , MIN 96 103 8 12 527 4 13 79 0 40. Nick Chubb , HOU 95 83 -12 12 471 4 15 113 0 41. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 87 99 12 12 412 5 9 58 0 42. Jacory Croskey-Merritt , WAS 85 88 2 12 492 3 12 75 0 43. Devin Singletary , NYG 80 73 -7 13 351 4 10 74 1 44. Aaron Jones , MIN 79 75 -4 8 283 1 24 176 1 45. Blake Corum , LAR 77 60 -17 12 373 4 8 57 0 46. Bucky Irving , TB 75 88 13 5 384 1 17 117 0 47. Emanuel Wilson , GB 73 76 2 12 350 3 13 78 0 48. Omarion Hampton , LAC 73 77 4 5 289 2 18 118 0 49. Bhayshul Tuten , JAC 72 73 1 12 308 4 11 73 0 50. Isiah Pacheco , KC 71 66 -5 9 365 1 16 99 0 51. Michael Carter , ARI 71 61 -10 8 215 1 22 158 1 52. Tyjae Spears , TEN 67 67 0 8 172 1 26 171 1 53. Dylan Sampson , CLE 64 66 1 12 187 0 22 147 1 54. Brashard Smith , KC 63 44 -19 12 127 1 22 144 1 55. Sean Tucker , TB 60 69 9 12 284 3 8 55 0 56. Jerome Ford , CLE 59 41 -19 12 104 1 23 158 1 57. Brian Robinson Jr. , SF 53 54 1 13 295 1 7 56 1 58. Justice Hill , BAL 53 65 13 10 81 1 23 154 0 59. Ollie Gordon II , MIA 52 44 -8 12 211 3 7 43 0 60. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 52 58 5 10 278 4 1 14 0 61. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 50 59 9 12 143 1 19 125 0 62. Ty Johnson , BUF 49 54 5 12 104 1 17 126 1 63. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 46 43 -3 12 112 0 16 146 0 64. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 44 44 1 13 5 1 17 149 1 65. Samaje Perine , CIN 41 39 -2 10 203 1 8 60 0 66. Devin Neal , NO 41 34 -6 8 139 0 15 103 0 67. Emari Demercado , ARI 40 43 3 9 145 1 10 65 1 68. Tyler Badie , DEN 40 25 -14 11 9 0 20 143 1 69. James Conner , ARI 39 33 -6 3 132 1 7 51 1 70. Trey Benson , ARI 39 35 -4 4 130 1 13 82 0 71. Zavier Scott , MIN 33 31 -2 11 109 0 10 81 1 72. Ray Davis , BUF 32 28 -4 12 137 1 5 42 0 73. Kendre Miller , NO 31 33 2 7 208 1 4 28 0 74. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 28 34 6 8 114 1 8 45 0 75. Raheem Mostert , LV 25 25 0 9 98 0 8 54 0 76. Miles Sanders , DAL 24 27 3 4 87 1 7 45 0 77. Chris Brooks , GB 23 20 -3 12 47 0 9 68 0 78. Antonio Gibson , NE 20 23 3 5 98 1 2 19 0 79. Jaret Patterson , LAC 20 19 -1 4 120 1 0 0 0 80. LeQuint Allen , JAC 19 18 -1 12 58 0 7 45 0 81. Trevor Etienne , CAR 18 12 -7 13 88 1 2 16 0 82. Hunter Luepke , DAL 18 22 4 12 12 0 7 52 1 83. Austin Ekeler , WAS 18 13 -4 2 68 0 5 44 0 84. Braelon Allen , NYJ 17 15 -2 4 76 0 2 17 0 85. Ameer Abdullah , IND 17 18 1 8 34 1 5 33 0 86. Terrell Jennings , NE 16 15 -1 7 79 1 1 6 0 87. Will Shipley , PHI 15 13 -2 10 49 0 5 40 0 88. George Holani , SEA 15 21 6 11 96 0 2 13 0 89. Kaleb Johnson , PIT 15 8 -7 8 101 0 2 10 0 90. DJ Giddens , IND 14 7 -7 7 69 1 1 10 0 91. Tank Bigsby , JAC 3 1 -1 1 22 0 0 0 0 91. Tank Bigsby , PHI 11 17 7 11 83 0 1 5 0 92. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 13 12 0 3 58 0 3 15 0 93. Jaydon Blue , DAL 12 8 -4 4 98 0 1 5 0 94. Zamir White , LV 12 7 -4 4 46 0 4 25 0 95. Alec Ingold , MIA 11 10 -1 12 8 0 5 47 0 96. Hassan Haskins , LAC 11 8 -2 7 50 0 3 23 0 97. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 10 8 -2 12 15 0 5 34 0 98. Najee Harris , LAC 10 12 1 3 54 0 3 18 0 99. Jaylen Wright , MIA 10 8 -3 5 77 0 1 6 0 100. Julius Chestnut , TEN 9 4 -5 12 35 1 1 15 0 101. Andrew Beck , NYJ 9 13 3 12 0 0 4 28 0 102. Adam Prentice , DEN 9 10 1 12 20 0 4 29 0 103. Tyler Goodson , IND 9 4 -5 7 21 0 2 14 1 104. Malik Davis , DAL 9 16 7 6 57 1 0 0 0 105. AJ Dillon , PHI 9 8 -1 6 50 0 2 13 0 106. Dylan Laube , LV 8 5 -3 12 25 0 3 22 0 107. Raheim Sanders , CLE 8 6 -2 1 8 1 0 0 0 108. British Brooks , HOU 8 2 -6 10 9 1 0 0 0 109. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 6 4 -2 2 32 0 2 9 0 110. Dameon Pierce , HOU 6 3 -3 4 41 0 1 6 0 111. Tahj Brooks , CIN 5 3 -2 11 40 0 0 5 0 112. Rasheen Ali , BAL 5 5 0 10 24 0 1 6 0 113. D'Ernest Johnson , ARI 1 0 -1 1 5 0 0 0 0 113. D'Ernest Johnson , NE 4 1 -3 3 15 0 0 0 0 114. Cam Akers , MIN 4 7 3 3 20 0 1 6 0 115. Nathan Carter , ATL 4 4 0 5 39 0 0 0 0 116. Brittain Brown , CHI 4 10 6 2 21 0 1 7 0 117. Trayveon Williams , LAC 3 1 -2 3 13 0 1 5 0 118. Elijah Mitchell , KC 3 0 -3 1 0 0 1 9 0 119. Evan Hull , NO 3 2 -1 1 24 0 0 0 0 120. Amar Johnson , LAC 2 1 -1 2 10 0 1 5 0 121. Josh Williams , TB 2 1 -1 3 20 0 0 0 0 122. Jacardia Wright , SEA 2 2 0 1 20 0 0 0 0 123. Craig Reynolds , DET 2 0 -1 7 14 0 0 0 0 124. Owen Wright , TB 2 1 -1 3 15 0 0 0 0 125. Reggie Gilliam , BUF 1 1 0 12 0 0 1 5 0 126. Jacob Saylors , DET 1 1 0 11 8 0 0 0 0 127. C.J. Ham , MIN 1 2 0 6 0 0 1 6 0 128. Myles Gaskin , SEA 1 1 -1 1 11 0 0 0 0 129. Roschon Johnson , CHI 1 2 1 7 9 0 0 0 0 130. Nyheim Hines , LAC 1 0 -1 3 6 0 0 0 0 131. Kendall Milton , CIN 1 0 -1 1 8 0 0 0 0 132. DeeJay Dallas , CAR 1 0 -1 3 5 0 0 0 0
