If you're reading the Blueprint this week, you're a) still alive in your fantasy playoffs; b) a connoisseur of incredibly witty writing; or c) a Google web-search spider attracted by potentially snobby big-word usage. I'll proceed under the assumption that explanation (a) is my largest demographic this week, but just in case: Welcome, spiders!
Here are some tape-review thoughts of three players available in many leagues, who could help you out if you're an underdog in your Week 15 tilt.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns
Obviously, I had to track back to Week 13 for Manziel's tape, and even then, his performance came in the fourth quarter when his team trailed 20-3. My observations:
• I've heard analysts say Manziel's performance was tainted because the Buffalo Bills didn't have all their defensive starters on the field. That's not what I see on tape. Jerry Hughes, Mario Williams, Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, Brandon Spikes ... they're all out there from what I can see.
• That said, the Bills were very much playing back. They were in Cover-2 with safeties Aaron Williams and Da'Norris Searcy 15 yards off the line, and corners Stephon Gilmore and Corey Graham never venturing near bump territory.
• On Manziel's third play, he checked to a deep cross to Josh Gordon. I'm not giving the rookie QB huge marks for this; I can't know what he checked out of, and he wasn't facing anything exotic from the defense, but it worked. Manziel threw a bullet on time, and Gordon was wide open in the embrace of that deep zone. It was Johnny Football's best play.
• Manziel ran a naked bootleg and had Travis Benjamin wide open on a cross, and blew that throw. He had pressure from two defenders, and he did stop running before he threw, but he didn't get his feet into optimal position, not turning his body sufficiently and thus relying on his arm too much. This should've been a 30-yard gain.
• The 24-yard seam-route gain to Jim Dray was a classic bait, and should've been intercepted by Searcy. The safety let Manziel think he had Dray, just waiting for the kid to fall into his trap. Manziel fell for it. But he's got a wing, and Searcy misjudged the ball's velocity. That this was a completion is testament to Manziel having the kind of arm Brian Hoyer doesn't, but he's not going to make a living on decisions like this. Most times, that throw is a pick.
• The touchdown run wasn't a designed play; he gave his routes time to develop, then made a slick move to his left. A normal athlete gets tackled by Searcy before the end zone, but Manziel has exceptional acceleration as a runner, the kind defenders don't expect. This, obviously, represents Manziel's best shot at a big Week 15.
• He did fumble twice on that foolishly overturned call that should've led to a Bills defensive TD. But whatever.
We're talking 10 plays. It's not possible to glean much from 10 plays. He has a big arm. His chemistry with his receivers isn't a finished product. He can really run and doesn't seem jumpy in the pocket. His accuracy is a question mark. I was on record as saying the Browns have been foolish not to play Manziel sooner, mainly because Hoyer is a backup-quality player. Now that the Browns are unlikely to make the playoffs, they'll give Johnny Football his shot. It'll be fun. In a two-QB league, I would absolutely fire him up in my lineup. In standard leagues, I would have to be a pretty huge underdog with a bad depth chart to make that leap.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Moncrief's biggest impediment to helping you in a tight Week 15 spot is Reggie Wayne. When it seemed the Colts might be considering sitting Wayne down because of his triceps injury, Moncrief looked like a possible top-20 WR in Andrew Luck's offense. But Wayne has practiced this week and is expected to play Sunday against the Houston Texans. That probably leaves Moncrief in Hail Mary territory.
But who is this rookie out of Ole Miss? Too many analysts just look at his box scores and imagine what kind of player he is. I dug into each of his 36 targets (and his four rushes) so far this year. What Moncrief is is fast. Indy's strategy has been to get the ball in the rookie's hands with as little risk as possible, and let him make a play.
Often, he's caught passes as the third man out of a trips (three receivers) formation, allowing the other two receivers to bolt out straight while he delays and either runs a wide-open shallow cross or just putters in from the flat. He's also taken advantage of defenses understanding what kind of wheels he has, by running short stops that require some timing with Luck, but don't carry a ton of risk if that timing is off. And of course, he's also gotten some deep targets on straight-up fly patterns.
The Colts have only recently started varying Moncrief's game. It wasn't until Week 13 against Washington that I actually saw him targeted on a post pattern, and it wasn't until last week against the Browns I saw him targeted on a deep cross against tight man coverage. He caught that pass in Cleveland, an important drive-starter that helped set up T.Y. Hilton's game-winning score. (Don't get worked up over the fact that Moncrief scored two long TDs versus Washington. Each came on hellaciously blown coverage.) Trust is growing here, and that's a great thing for a kid with a 6-foot-2, 221-pound frame and his kind of jets. But the training wheels are most decidedly not off, nor is it a fait accompli that Moncrief can automatically become a polished enough route runner to be the flanker Indy will eventually need him to be.
That said, the early returns are promising. Moncrief makes a good potential complement for Hilton because he's fast enough to occasionally "take the top" off a defense and be physical enough to catch it in traffic, while Hilton has the open-field agility (and his own sick burners) to score from anywhere. In 2015, when Wayne is gone, this combo will rock. In Week 15, you can use Moncrief the same way you would a Martavis Bryant: hoping for a big play to pull you even in a fantasy playoff game where you feel you're an underdog.
Marquess Wilson, WR, Chicago Bears
Like Moncrief, Wilson wears uniform No. 10, and is also an intriguing flier for Week 15. In fact, I ranked these two WRs side-by-side at the tail end of my positional top 40. As an athlete, Wilson is a far cry from Moncrief, but because Brandon Marshall is out for the season, Wilson has the potential for more usage Monday night against the New Orleans Saints.
There's also not much regular-season tape for Wilson. He returned from a fractured collarbone only four games ago, and has 14 targets and only five catches. But of course, Marshall was also on the field during most of that action, so we can't punish Wilson for his lack of action. His strength is his height: He absolutely looks at home with the Bears' other behemoth pass-catchers, though his frame is slighter. Against the Dallas Cowboys last Thursday night, Wilson could've made two big plays on deep throws down the left side where a defensive back simply didn't give him proper credit for 4.5 wheels (again, not as fast as Moncrief, but still pretty awesome for a 6-foot-3 dude), but Jay Cutler missed the throws.
Wilson also had two drops on three targets in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so it'll be worth watching whether his hands are an issue. Even with Marshall out, I can't guarantee a passel of targets, though the logician in me says the Saints would be wise to send help Alshon Jeffery's way. Perhaps Josh Morgan gets involved to an annoying degree, but other things being equal, the opportunity for Wilson seems major. Outside of his straight-line speed, athletically he feels like "just another guy," but he does have size enough to score a red zone TD. His future is probably as a slot or complementary player, whereas Moncrief may turn out to be a star. This week, though, Wilson's potential workload gives him an outside shot at fantasy prominence.