Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 25, 2023, 03:05 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Derek Carty

Tuesday's top pitcher streaming option is the San Francisco Giants' Alex Cobb (59% rostered in ESPN leagues). He won't be available in all leagues, but considering that THE BAT X projects only Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as better options overall, he's worth mentioning in case you're in the 41% of leagues where he's out there. His talent is wildly underrated and he gets a premium matchup against the Oakland Athletics with the day's only sub-70 degree weather.
If Cobb is gone, Aaron Civale (24% rostered) facing the Kansas City Royals is your next best option, followed by J.P. France (16%). France has a tough matchup against Texas, but the Rangers aren't as good as their season numbers indicate, and the closed roof in Houston makes this one of just three games under 80 degrees. If you're desperate for starts, Trevor Williams (2%) should be available and has a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies away from Coors. Of course, he's still Trevor Williams.
THE BAT X projects two teams over six runs today: the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox. You're unlikely to find many worthwhile Braves available in your league's free agent pool (Marcell Ozuna, 17%, is the exception), but there are several Red Sox available. It may not seem like a great matchup against Charlie Morton, but the Fenway environment at 80 degrees makes it hard on any pitcher. Jarren Duran (23%), Triston Casas (30%) and Enrique Hernandez (7%) are all terrific streams.
If you're specifically looking for power, the New York Mets project as one of the top teams today. Francisco Alvarez (34%) and Daniel Vogelbach (1%) are great options, and Brett Baty (5%) is worth a look as well. They get a nice park upgrade going into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday.
It may seem curious on the surface, but if you're looking for steals Tuesday, the Miami Marlins should be your first stop. They face Glasnow, who is obviously elite at pitching, but anyone who gets on base against him tends to run wild. Jon Berti (3%) stands the best chance of a steal, of anybody not named Ronald Acuna. Garrett Hampson (sub-1%) would also be an elite choice if he cracks the lineup, while Joey Wendle (1%) and Jean Segura (6%) make for good choices as well.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.6	Corbin Burnes	R	CIN	99.8%	-155	8	52%	6.0	2.3	7.0
13.5	Tyler Glasnow	R	MIA	91.4%	-205	7.5	57%	5.6	1.9	6.5
13.4	Justin Verlander	R	@NYY	97.9%	-125	8.5	55%	6.0	2.1	5.9
13.4	Andrew Abbott	L	@MIL	73.1%	130	8	48%	6.1	2.5	6.9
12.7	Blake Snell	L	PIT	96.0%	-285	8	61%	5.6	2.0	6.6
11.9	Julio Urias	L	TOR	92.7%	-145	9	54%	5.6	2.0	5.2
11.7	J.P. France	R	TEX	17.7%	--	--	69%	5.9	2.5	5.6
11.0	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	LAA	79.4%	-125	8.5	53%	5.7	2.5	5.7
10.8	Chris Bassitt	R	@LAD	88.8%	122	9	46%	5.8	2.4	5.5
10.6	Pablo Lopez	R	SEA	95.8%	-120	8	48%	5.7	2.7	6.3
10.2	Alex Cobb	R	OAK	63.6%	-260	8.5	60%	5.5	2.3	5.2
10.0	Ken Waldichuk	L	@SF	0.5%	210	8.5	40%	5.0	1.9	5.1
9.9	Kyle Hendricks	R	@CWS	13.6%	-115	9	49%	5.7	2.6	4.7
9.8	Merrill Kelly	R	STL	88.9%	-135	9	53%	5.7	2.8	5.7
9.8	Domingo German	R	NYM	26.1%	105	8.5	45%	5.1	2.2	5.2
9.5	Kyle Gibson	R	@PHI	21.3%	105	9.5	52%	5.7	2.8	5.3
9.4	Edward Cabrera	R	@TB	14.5%	170	7.5	43%	4.7	2.0	5.6
9.4	George Kirby	R	@MIN	94.0%	100	8	52%	5.4	2.7	5.5
9.2	Taijuan Walker	R	BAL	42.4%	-125	9.5	48%	5.4	2.6	5.0
8.9	Michael Kopech	R	CHC	23.5%	-105	9	51%	4.9	2.2	4.8
8.8	Griffin Canning	R	@DET	13.2%	105	8.5	47%	5.3	2.7	5.5
8.6	Charlie Morton	R	@BOS	92.3%	--	--	53%	5.4	3.0	6.0
8.5	Aaron Civale	R	KC	32.4%	-205	8.5	59%	5.0	2.6	4.9
7.8	Steven Matz	L	@ARI	2.4%	115	9	47%	5.0	2.6	4.9
7.1	Rich Hill	L	@SD	4.7%	228	8	39%	5.0	2.5	4.4
5.7	Trevor Williams	R	COL	2.7%	-145	9.5	43%	4.8	3.0	4.3
5.1	Austin Gomber	L	@WSH	3.7%	122	9.5	57%	4.9	3.3	4.1
3.8	Zack Greinke	R	@CLE	3.1%	170	8.5	41%	5.0	3.3	3.2
	TBD		@HOU	0.0%	--	--	78%	0.0	0.0	0.0
	TBD		ATL	0.0%	--	--	78%	0.0	0.0	0.0

Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

After a pair of shaky outings, Devin Williams was asked to preserve a 2-2 ninth inning tie and he responded with a 1-2-3 frame, fanning the last two batters he faced. Williams was credited with the win when the Milwaukee Brewers walked it off against Cincinnati Reds closer Alexis Diaz in the bottom of the ninth. Williams threw 14 pitches, which comes on top of 29 tosses needed last Saturday. A combined 43 pitches over three days puts Williams' availability for tonight in jeopardy, although manager Craig Counsell has been known to push the envelope with Williams, using him on three straight days earlier in July. This is an important series, so the club may go to the well again, but regardless, Joel Payamps is a worthwhile pickup since he could garner a hold if he isn't asked to fill in as closer in the middle game of a three-game set between the top two NL Central contenders.
Toronto Blue Jays manager Brandon Hyde probably wanted to avoid using Jordan Romano last night, but when you take a 6-3 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the top of the 11th, you do what's necessary to seal the deal, and that meant calling Romano's number for the fourth time in five days. Romano delivered a nine-pitch save, his 28th of the season. However, now that he has pitched two days in a row and accrued 51 pitches since Friday, it's almost assured Romano will get a night off. Erik Swanson also has been busy lately, but he was not used last night, making him the top choice to pick up as Romano's replacement Tuesday.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	7/24	P3	Rest	Strk
Devin Williams	MIL	95.2%	14	43	0	1
Jordan Romano	TOR	91.5%	9	30	0	2

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 25%) at Trevor Williams
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 46%) at Michael Kopech
Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B -- 21%) vs. Ken Waldichuk
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 17%) at Nick Pivetta
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 18%) vs. Kyle Hendricks
Jurickson Profar (COL, LF -- 9%) at Williams
Jake Burger (CHW, 3B -- 6%) vs. Hendricks
Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 23%) vs. Charlie Morton
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 32%) vs. Morton
Nolan Jones (COL, RF -- 6%) at Williams

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 91%) at Corbin Burnes
Josh Lowe (TB, RF -- 51%) vs. Edward Cabrera
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 94%) at Blake Snell
Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 69%) at Pablo Lopez
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 87%) at Burnes
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF -- 60%) at Lopez
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 51%) vs. Cabrera
Josh Jung (TEX, 3B -- 65%) at J.P. France
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B -- 64%) vs. Rich Hill
Jorge Soler (MIA, LF -- 79%) at Tyler Glasnow

The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Braves at Pivetta
Red Sox vs. Morton
Chicago Cubs at Kopech

Prop of the Day

Andrew Abbott, Reds: Pitching outs prop is 17.5 (-145/+115).

PREDICTION:

THE BAT sees Abbott putting up 15.4 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 32.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $44.50.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Abbott in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.
The wind projects to be blowing in from right field at 9.2 mph in this contest, the most favorable of the day for pitchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Brewers have been the second-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season,
American Family Field ranks as the No. 4 field in MLB for walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the fourth-hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.
Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the No. 8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.