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Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games
By Derek Carty
Tuesday's top pitcher streaming option is the San Francisco Giants' Alex Cobb (59% rostered in ESPN leagues). He won't be available in all leagues, but considering that THE BAT X projects only Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as better options overall, he's worth mentioning in case you're in the 41% of leagues where he's out there. His talent is wildly underrated and he gets a premium matchup against the Oakland Athletics with the day's only sub-70 degree weather.
If Cobb is gone, Aaron Civale (24% rostered) facing the Kansas City Royals is your next best option, followed by J.P. France (16%). France has a tough matchup against Texas, but the Rangers aren't as good as their season numbers indicate, and the closed roof in Houston makes this one of just three games under 80 degrees. If you're desperate for starts, Trevor Williams (2%) should be available and has a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies away from Coors. Of course, he's still Trevor Williams.
THE BAT X projects two teams over six runs today: the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox. You're unlikely to find many worthwhile Braves available in your league's free agent pool (Marcell Ozuna, 17%, is the exception), but there are several Red Sox available. It may not seem like a great matchup against Charlie Morton, but the Fenway environment at 80 degrees makes it hard on any pitcher. Jarren Duran (23%), Triston Casas (30%) and Enrique Hernandez (7%) are all terrific streams.
If you're specifically looking for power, the New York Mets project as one of the top teams today. Francisco Alvarez (34%) and Daniel Vogelbach (1%) are great options, and Brett Baty (5%) is worth a look as well. They get a nice park upgrade going into Yankee Stadium on Tuesday.
It may seem curious on the surface, but if you're looking for steals Tuesday, the Miami Marlins should be your first stop. They face Glasnow, who is obviously elite at pitching, but anyone who gets on base against him tends to run wild. Jon Berti (3%) stands the best chance of a steal, of anybody not named Ronald Acuna. Garrett Hampson (sub-1%) would also be an elite choice if he cracks the lineup, while Joey Wendle (1%) and Jean Segura (6%) make for good choices as well.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Bullpen usage watch for Tuesday
By Todd Zola
After a pair of shaky outings, Devin Williams was asked to preserve a 2-2 ninth inning tie and he responded with a 1-2-3 frame, fanning the last two batters he faced. Williams was credited with the win when the Milwaukee Brewers walked it off against Cincinnati Reds closer Alexis Diaz in the bottom of the ninth. Williams threw 14 pitches, which comes on top of 29 tosses needed last Saturday. A combined 43 pitches over three days puts Williams' availability for tonight in jeopardy, although manager Craig Counsell has been known to push the envelope with Williams, using him on three straight days earlier in July. This is an important series, so the club may go to the well again, but regardless, Joel Payamps is a worthwhile pickup since he could garner a hold if he isn't asked to fill in as closer in the middle game of a three-game set between the top two NL Central contenders.
Toronto Blue Jays manager Brandon Hyde probably wanted to avoid using Jordan Romano last night, but when you take a 6-3 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the top of the 11th, you do what's necessary to seal the deal, and that meant calling Romano's number for the fourth time in five days. Romano delivered a nine-pitch save, his 28th of the season. However, now that he has pitched two days in a row and accrued 51 pitches since Friday, it's almost assured Romano will get a night off. Erik Swanson also has been busy lately, but he was not used last night, making him the top choice to pick up as Romano's replacement Tuesday.
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 25%) at Trevor Williams
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF -- 17%) at Nick Pivetta
Jurickson Profar (COL, LF -- 9%) at Williams
Jake Burger (CHW, 3B -- 6%) vs. Hendricks
Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 23%) vs. Charlie Morton
Triston Casas (BOS, 1B -- 32%) vs. Morton
Nolan Jones (COL, RF -- 6%) at Williams
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 94%) at Blake Snell
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B -- 87%) at Burnes
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF -- 60%) at Lopez
Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 51%) vs. Cabrera
Josh Jung (TEX, 3B -- 65%) at J.P. France
Jorge Soler (MIA, LF -- 79%) at Tyler Glasnow
The Bat X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Braves at Pivetta
Red Sox vs. Morton
Chicago Cubs at Kopech
Prop of the Day
Andrew Abbott, Reds: Pitching outs prop is 17.5 (-145/+115).
THE BAT sees Abbott putting up 15.4 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 32.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $44.50.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Abbott in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.
The wind projects to be blowing in from right field at 9.2 mph in this contest, the most favorable of the day for pitchers.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
The Brewers have been the second-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season,
American Family Field ranks as the No. 4 field in MLB for walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the fourth-hottest weather on the slate at 84 degrees.
Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the No. 8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today's game.