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          Fantasy baseball Wednesday advice: Go with Nestor Cortes vs. Seattle

          Nestor Cortes is in a groove and faces a Mariners offense with a penchant for the strikeout. Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
          • Mike Sheets
          Sep 18, 2024, 02:00 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Cortes riding hot streak

          The New York Yankees are hoping to wrap up the AL East title soon, as they currently sit three games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles with 12 games remaining. Nestor Cortes is one of the key arms contributing to that final push. After hitting a rough patch in July (6.93 ERA), Cortes has arguably been the team's top starter during the past month. The left-hander has delivered a 1.85 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across his past six games (five starts), allowing more than one run in only one of those outings.

          In his latest start against the Boston Red Sox, Cortes struck out a season-high nine batters. While that's noteworthy, what's even more interesting is his increased velocity in that outing. He averaged a season-high 93.2 mph on his four-seamer, which produced a season-best 12 whiffs.

          We'll have to wait and see whether that velocity carries over into his next start, but it's an intriguing development regardless, especially with a favorable matchup against the Seattle Mariners on tap.

          The Mariners are the most strikeout-heavy team in baseball, fanning 27.1% of the time this season. They have also been below average versus left-handed pitching, posting a 95 wRC+ and a 26% strikeout rate, the second-highest mark in the American League. Available in 52% of ESPN leagues, Cortes is one of the top streaming options of the day.

          What you may have missed on Tuesday

          By Todd Zola

          • Toronto Blue Jays OF Daulton Varsho was placed on the 10-day IL with a shoulder strain. The club announced that Varsho will undergo season-ending surgery on his rotator cuff. He's been playing with the injury, but as soon as it was revealed to be a rotator cuff issue, the decision was made to have the procedure as soon as possible, giving Varsho ample time to hopefully be ready for spring training. In other Blue Jays news, SS Bo Bichette returned from the IL last night, knocking a pair of hits in the 13-8 road loss to the Texas Rangers. Bichette was out with a calf issue since just after the All-Star break.

          • The Cleveland Guardians finally placed OF Steven Kwan on the 10-day IL as he continues to experience back discomfort. Kwan hasn't played since last Thursday. Myles Straw was summoned from Triple-A Columbus in the corresponding move.

          • The San Francisco Giants will be without 3B Matt Chapman today and tomorrow as he's on the paternity list. The club expects Chapman to be back in time to play in Friday's road interleague affair with the Kansas City Royals.

          • The Tampa Bay Rays announced that SP Jeffrey Springs and RP Pete Fairbanks are both done for the season. Springs is experiencing elbow soreness and since he spent most of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, he'll finish with seven starts spanning 33 innings with a 3.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, compiling 37 strikeouts and 11 walks. The club doesn't believe the soreness to be serious and expects Springs to be fine for next season. Fairbanks is sidelined with a lat strain and is progressing well in his recovery but won't be ready to return this season. When healthy, he served as the Rays primary closer, notching 23 saves in 45 1/3 frames.

          • Detroit Tigers 2B Colt Keith hurt his shoulder diving for a ball in the fifth inning last night. He was able to stay in the game but left in the eighth inning when it was too painful to throw. Keith is slated for testing today at which point his status could be clarified. If Keith is forced to miss action, Zack McKinstry and Raul Ibanez will handle the keystone.

          • Victor Robles left last night's contest in the third inning with hand soreness resulting from being hit by a pitch leading off the bottom of the first inning. Robles was serving as DH and was replaced by C Mitch Garver.

          • Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve fouled a ball off his foot in the ninth inning last night, but it was ruled a fair ball, and he was thrown out. A few minutes later, he was tossed from the game after showing his bare foot to the home plate umpire. Altuve was limping, so it's uncertain if he would have stayed in the 3-3 tie. More should be known about his status today.

          Everything else you need to know for Wednesday

          • Despite flirting with multiple no-hitters this season and holding a 1.50 ERA over his past seven starts, Bowden Francis remains available in half of ESPN leagues. Amazingly, he has surrendered exactly one hit in four of those seven outings. Bowden's stuff doesn't necessarily translate into a pitcher this good, but it's tough to argue with his results. On Wednesday, consider him a quality streamer against the Texas Rangers, who rank bottom five in MLB over the past month with an 82 wRC+.

          • Spencer Schwellenbach (37% rostered in ESPN leagues) also finds himself in a favorable spot, facing a Cincinnati Reds offense that sports an 88 wRC+ and 24.8% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. The 24-year-old right-hander owns a 2.88 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.1 K/9 over his past 12 starts, allowing more than three earned runs just once during that stretch. If your roster has room for only one streamer Wednesday, a case can be made for Schwellenbach deserving that spot.

          • A pair of lefties -- the Washington Nationals' DJ Herz (7% rostered) and the New York Mets' Jose Quintana (10%) -- will square off at Citi Field on Wednesday night, and both carry streaming appeal. Herz has been remarkably consistent, holding a 2.76 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over his past 10 starts, while limiting his opponents to two or fewer earned runs in nine of those turns. Meanwhile, Quintana has given up just one earned run over his past four starts combined. Of the two, Quintana gets the more favorable matchup, as the Nationals rank 24th in baseball with an 89 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

          • Eduardo Rodriguez, who has posted a 5.50 ERA over seven starts this year, was already a hurler we wanted to get some exposure against, but a start at Coors Field only amplifies the opportunity. Brenton Doyle (49%), Ezequiel Tovar (26%), Michael Toglia (9%), and Brendan Rodgers (5%) all have the platoon edge against E-Rod, and Ryan McMahon (43%), who has actually hit better against southpaws this year, is also a viable option.

          • Sheets' Betting Tip of the Day: Cody Bradford was roughed by the Diamondbacks in his last start, but I'm willing to give him a mulligan against the best-hitting team in baseball since the All-Star break (133 wRC+). Before that rough outing, the left-hander had recorded at least 18 outs in five consecutive starts, posting a 2.53 ERA during that stretch. I'm taking over 15.5 total outs recorded (-130) against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been well below average (88 wRC+) against left-handed pitching this season.

          • Zola's Betting Tip of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting the finishing touches on a solid bounce back season. He's in a favorable spot tonight with the platoon edge on Texas Rangers LHP Cody Bradford. Another productive evening is in store. Back Guerrero with over 2.5 Totals Hits + Runs + RBIs (+140).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday

          THE BAT X's best stacks for Wednesday