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          Fantasy baseball Friday advice: Turn to David Peterson

          Mets LHP David Peterson has the platoon edge on the rival Phillies on Friday. Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 20, 2024, 03:58 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Prepping for a 'wild' weekend

          There are always exceptions, but the rule of thumb when setting fantasy baseball lineups is favoring players from teams with something on the line. Teams competing for postseason participation are more likely to play their regulars and adhere to their normal pitching deployment.

          Most squads playing out the string will respect the playoff chase and approach meetings with involved teams as such. Otherwise, pitching and hitting for the also-rans change on a whim, often leaving fantasy managers with a goose egg in their active lineup at the most inopportune time.

          Heading into Thursday's action, only the Milwaukee Brewers have clinched their division. However, the other five leaders seemingly have their respective top spots locked up, though there is still some jostling for seeding.

          On the other hand, both wild cards are still hotly contested. Barring a complete collapse, the Baltimore Orioles appeared assured of an American League spot with the San Diego Padres in the Senior Circuit's driver's seat. Four clubs are left competing for two spots in the American League, and three teams are aiming for two berths in the National League.

          The series with the deepest playoff implications begins next Tuesday with the Atlanta Braves hosting the New York Mets for a three-game set. Through Wednesday, the Mets and Padres are tied for the last two National League wild cards, with the Braves two games back.

          There are a few intriguing weekend matchups, beginning Friday night. The Boston Red Sox are still mathematically alive, so they'll use their best against the Twins. The Orioles would like to hold on to the top American League wild-card spot when they face the Detroit Tigers, who are trying to pass the Twins and/or Kansas City Royals for a postseason invite.

          In the National League, there are two series involving teams in playoff contention. The Mets meet the Philadelphia Phillies with the Mets hoping to fortify their postseason chances and the Phillies trying to fend off the Los Angeles Dodgers for the top overall seed. In the other, the Brewers still have a wild-card round bye in their sights while the Diamondbacks attempt to solidify their wild-card standing.

          When applicable, playoff implications will be factored into the remaining daily notes. Keep in mind that as teams claim a postseason berth, they will likely use a lesser lineup the following day, unless significant seeding is still on the line.

          What you may have missed on Thursday

          • New York Yankees OF Juan Soto hurt his left knee sliding into the concrete at the base of the outfield wall last night. Soto made the catch in foul territory and stayed in the game, but the knee was sore afterwards, so he's slated for precautionary X-rays today. His availability for tonight's road contest with the Oakland Athletics is uncertain.

          • The Toronto Blue Jays placed SS Bo Bichette on the 10-day IL after imaging revealed he has a broken right middle finger. Last night, Ernie Clement filled in at shortstop. Clement and Leo Jimenez will cover the position for the rest of the season.

          • Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman threw five scoreless innings but had to leave last night's game despite allowing no hits. Gausman was experiencing lower back tightness and was unable to continue. After the game, Gausman was optimistic that he'd be able to make his next start, slated for Tuesday.

          • Seattle Mariners OF Victor Robles was scratched for the second straight game due to lingering soreness in his right hand. Robles had been penciled in to lead off as the DH. He remains day-to-day.

          • Atlanta Braves 2B Ozzie Albies will be activated from the 10-day IL in advance of tonight's road date with the Miami Marlins. The club is currently two games behind both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently hold the last two NL wild card spots. Normally a switch-hitter, Albies will hit exclusively right-handed for the time being since he still experiences soreness while swinging left-handed.

          Everything else you need to know for Friday

          • The Chicago Cubs are home this weekend, which means the Friday slate begins with a Wrigley Field matinee. The Washington Nationals visit the Windy City for a series between a pair of teams playing for pride. Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon (21.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) isn't the docket's top streaming option, but he makes the cut. Taillon has been solid in September, recording a 1.42 ERA and .89 WHIP over three starts, spanning 19 frames. He fanned only 15 in that span, but he punched out six in each of his past two outings. That said, the Nationals don't strike out much, but over the past month they've sported the fifth-lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill. Taillon can help with ratios with a chance at notching a win.

          • Friday's top-ranked streaming candidate is Mets LHP David Peterson (30.2% rostered) facing the Phillies, so both teams will give maximum effort. The Phillies snapped out of their second-half rut, but Peterson enjoys the platoon edge on Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, two of the Phillies' most productive hitters, and the game is in Citi Field, the best pitching venue in the league. Last time out, Peterson tossed 7⅔ innings in Citizens Bank Park, limiting the Phillies to one run on four hits, ringing up six. Pitching into the eighth inning again is unlikely, but Peterson should provide another solid outing.

          • Next up is an intriguing matchup with the Tigers giving the ball to LHP Brant Hurter in their road tilt with the Orioles. Hurter is one of the primary reasons for the Tigers' second-half surge, as the southpaw has registered a crisp 2.56 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in eight outings, mostly serving as the bulk reliever, which will likely be his role Friday. Hurter has just one start, but he has tossed at least five frames six times, including last time out when he logged 5⅔ frames against the Orioles, albeit in Comerica Park. That said, as a left-hander, Hurter benefits from the deep left-field wall, along with facing an Orioles lineup with the eighth-lowest wOBA facing lefties over the last month.

          • It may not be the first, but it's one of the few instances that Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander's 49.5% rostership is beneath the 50% threshold generally used to pinpoint streaming options. The Astros haven't clinched the American League West, so they'll still be giving it their all when they take on the Los Angeles Angels at home. However, Verlander has yet to find a groove, posting an 8.34 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over five starts since coming off the IL in August. The righty lost the first four of those outings before logging a win his last time out, coincidentally over the Angels. Verlander isn't likely to rack up a bunch of punchouts, but he should keep a weak Angels lineup in check and has a chance for his second straight win.

          • Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom (42.6% rostered) is another infrequent visitor to this space. Unlike Verlander, deGrom isn't trying to get sharp for the playoffs, but he'd like to finish the season strong and then focus the offseason on a solid 2025 season. In his 2024 debut last week, deGrom threw only 61 pitches, but they encompassed 3⅔ scoreless stanzas, where he punched out four Seattle Mariners. Therein lies deGrom's Friday appeal, as he has another start against the team with the league's highest strikeout rate. The Mariners are on the fringe of the playoff chase, but it's due to their pitching. There is a decent chance deGrom reaches five frames in the rematch.

          • Betting tip of the day: Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller has compiled at least six strikeouts in three straight outings and in four of his last five starts. Tonight, the Pirates visit the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have the fourth-highest strikeout rate with a right-hander on the hill. This is an ideal opportunity for a ladder bet, where winning the safer wager pays for the higher odds -- the riskier half. It's fine to eschew the ladder and only back Keller to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-105). I'm adding Keller to also go over 6.5 strikeouts (+190).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday