Immediately after Tomi Uskok scored the opening goal against Western Sydney on Saturday night, the Macarthur defender motioned for teammate Craig Noone to tighten up defensively before the Wanderers kicked off.
It may seem a small and insignificant moment but, after the opening four rounds of the A-League Men's season, it seemed fitting. Just as fitting, the Bulls are atop the competition ladder.
Before the season started it was suggested that, if given the choice, ALM teams and coaches would simply prefer not to have the ball. The initial numbers from the opening four rounds of the season are backing that up.
- Visit ESPN's A-League Men's homepage
- ESPN+ viewers' guide: LaLiga, Bundesliga, MLS, FA Cup, more
Let's look at one base statistic. Out of 23 games to start the season, only four teams have won games while holding the majority of possession. Two occurred this weekend, with Newcastle's and Melbourne City's victories over Wellington and Perth Glory respectively. The Jets are a counterpoint to the rest of the league under new coach Arthur Papas, combining high pressing and assertive phases of possession.
"I don't think that it's just because, you know, who's got more possession or who's got less possession is going to win the game. It's what you do with possession," Western United coach John Aloisi reasoned.
"The way the league is going at the moment, it looks like the majority of the teams with less possession are winning. That can easily change."
Yet arguably, that base statistic could be a too simplistic of looking at it, for it ignores the complexion of each match and how a scoreline can impact statistics.
Once you dig a little deeper, the picture becomes clearer. For example, 18 of the 23 matches have seen more shots in the second half than in the first. Energy levels naturally decline over the course of 90 minutes and games gradually tend to be played from penalty area to penalty area, as opposed to within one half.
More space equals more scope for transition, which suits ALM teams, players and coaches who are traditionally not inclined to risk playing the ball in more compressed areas of the pitch. It's for this reason, the first goal so critical.
In 76.1% of games with goals so far this season, the team that has scored first has gone on to win the game. It's from here we can really start to look at game state, and shot quality relative to that, because the league's tactical modus operandi is predominantly sitting off and reacting once hitting the lead.
With all this in mind, it serves as no surprise that in the opening four rounds, there have been 36 more shots from teams in losing positions, than teams in winning positions. The difference from this figure in open play is only marginal, at 32 shots. For the league as a whole, the average xG per shot in open play for all three game states -- winning, level and losing -- is hovering around the 0.10 mark. Isolate individual teams, and the specific problems in possession become apparent.
It's important to note, the league's top three in Macarthur, Melbourne Victory and Western United currently rank 11th, 7th and 5th respectively for xG per shot in the competition, but are 4th, 3rd and 1st for average xG conceded per shot.
Open play xG per shot by game state in the opening four rounds of A-League Men's, 2021-22. pic.twitter.com/LYWgjoYh98
— Ante Jukić (@ajjukic) December 12, 2021
In winning positions though, Melbourne Victory are above the current league average for shot quality in open play, with a xG per shot of 0.1242 when in the ascendancy. Something their 2-1 win against Adelaide United on Saturday underpinned, they are far more comfortable and effective when transitioning in attack. Stay in front of them in possession, and the likes of Jake Brimmer, Joshua Brillante and Leigh Broxham will slow Victory down to a crawl. The U-shape in possession then becomes inevitable.
In this sense, Victory are not dissimilar to their local rivals, Melbourne City. Of the 11 teams to have spent time this season in a losing position, the reigning champions rank 9th for xG per shot in open play at 0.0508. Meanwhile, the impact of game state on differing attacking shot quality for Western Sydney and Sydney FC underpins the struggles they have faced so far. Because, ultimately, problems with balance and composition will reflect in that shot quality.
Open play xG conceded per shot by game state over the same period in A-League Men's, 2021-22. pic.twitter.com/CJxTB4eAV7
— Ante Jukić (@ajjukic) December 12, 2021
Defensively though, it's where Western United and Macarthur have been able to absorb from winning positions, giving up averages of open play xG per shot (0.05) below the current league average (0.09). Especially in contrast to how Macarthur played last season, they are the most visible reflection of how the penny is dropping on a wider scale in the game. Australian teams have long been dysfunctional with the ball, but only now we're starting to recognise it.
Despite the small sample size, it's only a reaffirmation that changing game state impacts the dynamics of a team's possession. This is a highly pronounced aspect of football in Australia. For sure, pragmatism in football is not an exclusively Australian problem, but it is what makes the need for adjustment from Australian coaches and teams to foreign environments and competition so distinct.
Much like discussion surrounding playing quotas for youth players, though, legislating against that pragmatism in approach is counter to the fundamentally subjective nature of football. In a way, there's an existential question that can be transferred to the game -- is it better to choose to be bad or to be conditioned to be good?
This is not about aesthetic, because initial numbers in relation to a vast body of evidence point more towards functionality. Coaches and teams in ALM can either figure it out, or like the opening month suggests, leave it for the too hard basket and we'll just see more of the same statistically.