On June 18, the Houston Astros lost 2-0 to the lowly Chicago White Sox, dropping them to 33-40, 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. They were a little beaten up and certainly searching for answers. Their odds of winning the division via FanGraphs were at 10.8%. Meanwhile, despite a lackluster offense, Seattle was rolling, reliant largely on a stellar rotation.
Even with more than half the season remaining, a 10-game lead appeared safe. After all, only seven teams in the division era since 1969 had blown as big an advantage.
It took the Astros just 24 days to catch the Mariners -- the fastest a team has ever gained that much ground. After a month spent mostly neck and neck, Houston has now won 11 of its past 13 games; Seattle went 1-5 last week. Suddenly, the Astros have stretched their division lead to a comfortable four games. Since June 18, they've gone 35-17. The Mariners have gone 21-32.
How did we get here? Buster Olney and David Schoenfield break down some of the key moments and numbers that swung this race in Houston's favor. Let's start with what's gone right for the Astros, followed by what's gone wrong for the Mariners.