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Your guide to Sunday's ALDS games: Win or go home for Red Sox and Yankees

Carlos Carrasco starts Game 3 for the Indians, who are looking for an ALDS sweep over the Yankees. Evan Habeeb/USA TODAY Sports

The Astros have shown why they led the majors in runs, pounding the Red Sox by twin scores of 8-2. The Yankees, meanwhile, suffered one of the worst playoff defeats in franchise history. Can they mentally recover after the day off?

The most important thing of the day: With the Astros and Indians both winning the first two games at home, the odds of the Red Sox and Yankees getting a rematch of those 2003 and 2004 ALCS classics are slim. The AL could have two division series sweeps for the second straight season.

If you're going to watch only one game, tune in for: Indians-Yankees. If only to follow along on Twitter to witness the angst of Yankees fans, who were ready to fire Joe Girardi midseries after the Game 2 disaster.

ALDS Game 3: Astros at Red Sox (Astros lead 2-0)

Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00) vs. Doug Fister (5-9, 4.88), 2:30 ET (FS1)

The stakes: The Red Sox entered the season with a super-rotation of Chris Sale, David Price and 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, so, of course, with their season on the line, they turn to a starter they claimed on waivers in June. Fister had a good stretch of games in late August and early September but allowed 17 runs in 16.2 innings over his final four starts. He's been clutch in the postseason before (2.60 ERA over 55 innings), but John Farrell will no doubt have Price ready in long relief.

If the Astros win: They sweep the Red Sox for their first series win since advancing to the World Series in 2005.

If the Red Sox win: They stay alive for another day with a likely matchup of Porcello versus Charlie Morton in Game 4. If you win that one, you can get back to Sale in Game 5, and you'll take your chances with him. Red Sox fans will remember 2003, when they lost the first two games of the ALDS to the A's before winning the final three.

One key stat to know: Jose Altuve is 5-for-7 in the first two games, and the Red Sox issued two intentional passes to him in Game 2 to pitch to cleanup hitter Carlos Correa. This may be the wrong time to tell Red Sox fans that Altuve hit .381 on the road with 15 of his 24 home runs.

The matchup that matters most: Red Sox lefty hitters vs. Peacock. He had a big platoon split this season with an OPS 258 points higher against lefties (.759 versus .501). You get the feeling Rafael Devers may have to pop one to give Boston a chance.

The prediction: In the year of the home run, the Red Sox seem to lack the firepower to compete with Houston's lineup. Peacock did a good job preventing home runs as well (10 in 132 IP). Can the Red Sox scratch and claw enough runs? Nope. Astros win 7-3.

ALDS Game 3: Indians at Yankees (Indians lead 2-0)

Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74), 7:30 ET (Fox Sports)

The stakes: Home teams that win the first two games of a best-of-five series are 38-6 in taking the series, so it's not impossible for the Yankees to pull off a comeback. But after Game 2's soul-breaking defeat in which they blew an 8-3 lead, it will take a minor miracle to beat a team three times in a row that has won 35 of its past 39 games and hasn't lost three in a row since Aug. 1.

If the Yankees win: Do they need to win the series to save Joe Girardi's job? He doesn't have a contract for 2018, and he was blamed for the Game 2 collapse, mostly for his failure to challenge the call on the Lonnie Chisenhall HBP, when replays showed the ball was a foul tip that would have ended the inning. Francisco Lindor followed with the grand slam that got the Indians back in the game -- as Girardi left in Chad Green with Aroldis Chapman warming up. Anyway, the Mets are looking for a manager. Could the crosstown rivals make a run at Girardi?

If the Indians win: They move on to the ALCS for the second straight year and sixth time in franchise history. Given Edwin Encarnacion's ankle sprain suffered in Game 2, it would also mean more rest for him before -- hopefully -- being ready for the next round.

One key stat to know: Sure, all pitchers need to get ahead in the count, but this is especially true for Tanaka. Among qualified starters, he had the second-worst wOBA allowed in hitter's counts as they hit .392/.491/.845 against him.

The matchup that matters most: Carrasco vs. Aaron Judge. Batters hit .130 against Carrasco's slider. Judge hit .153 against sliders. But batters hit .341 and slugged .604 against Carrasco's fastball. Judge slugged .711 against fastballs.

The prediction: The Indians are too good. Carrasco throws six innings, and the Indians hit a couple of early home runs off Tanaka before Girardi can go to his bullpen. Indians close it out 4-2.