When it comes to these kinds of exercises, it's important to lay out some guiding principles. What does it mean to say a player is one of the 10 best in the game? Best right now, at this second? Best this season to date? Best in terms of building a franchise over the long haul? Or best when it comes to what you expect to happen the rest of the season?
Here's how I frame the question: If we were drafting teams from scratch with the sole goal of winning this year's World Series, who would the first 10 selections be? This lessens the impact of age; otherwise you might take a lesser player who has greater upside. But there is still a hint of projectability as you puzzle over what might happen in the short window of one baseball season.
There are a number of factors to consider, and when mashing together the metrics to pare down my list, I weighed these basic ones to varying degrees: recent performance, track record, career phase, range of skills and a kind of catch-all factor regarding certainty. The scarcity of specific kinds of talent plays into all of this as well.
Let's get to it.
Honorable mentions: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies; Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles; Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians; Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros; Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
10. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: This came up during ESPN's recent Sunday Night Baseball telecast featuring the Red Sox and Astros. Given the seemingly unprecedented group of elite young shortstops in the game, if you had to pick one, whom would it be? It's a tough call, but I'm going with Seager. Since the beginning of 2016, Seager's .382 wOBA as a shortstop easily outdistances everyone else at the position. His league-average defense is not a negative; if his glove is good enough to keep his bat at the position, it's good enough, period.
9. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs: Besides being one of the most explosive and consistent power hitters in baseball, Bryant is a fine baserunner and a very good fielder who can hold his own at all four corner positions. But let's face it: It's all about that power bat for Bryant. Since his approach continues to improve -- fewer strikeouts, more walks -- he's less prone to slumps.
Bryant is having a bit of a BABIP issue right now, and when that straightens out, we'll be looking at another MVP-caliber campaign.
8. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals: Because the only player to see a lower percentage of pitches in the strike zone since the beginning of last season is David Ortiz, who is now retired, it's not a stretch to say Harper is the most feared hitter in baseball. (Well, pending a little bit more of a track record for Aaron Judge.) The only thing for me that keeps Harper from crowding Mike Trout at the top of the list is the question of certainty, which is a another way to describe some combination of consistency and durability. His OPS the past four seasons are .768, 1.109, .814 and 1.030.
His upside is as great as that of any player we've seen, and I have little doubt the valleys will eventually disappear.
7. Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox: After leading the majors in defensive runs saved in 2016, he's right back on top of the leaderboard this season, perhaps establishing himself as the game's most dominant defender. Since the beginning of last season, Betts has saved 12 more runs than any other player; Kevin Kiermaier, Nolan Arenado and the rest of the lot of great fielders has been lapped by Betts. He's also a superb hitter, and at 24, he just keeps getting better.
6. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt is dominant, consistent and durable, and even though he's a first baseman, he's terrific in every phase of the game, including on the basepaths. Goldschmidt is on top of his game right now, and while I didn't want to get too lost in recent performance, his track record suggests he's simply a great player at his peak. If we were drafting based on multi-season criteria, I probably wouldn't have Goldschmidt this high. But he's got to be on a list of 10 players best equipped to help a team win the 2017 World Series.
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: If we're just focusing on winning this season, we don't have to worry about the question of how much longer Posey should be a full-time catcher. We can just focus on his Gold Glove-caliber work behind the plate and his year-in, year-out elite production with the bat. He also has been good for at least 146 games in each of the past five seasons because of his ability to mix in starts at first base.
4. Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: Sale has finally found the spotlight in Boston and has been perhaps baseball's most valuable player so far in the 2017 season. He ranks third in pitcher WAR since the beginning of the 2013 season, behind Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, so he's another unique blend of dominance and consistency. He has finished sixth or better in AL Cy Young balloting in each of the past five seasons. Now that he's starring on a contending team in a big market, you have to like his chances to take home the prize this time around.
3. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals: My metrics actually placed Scherzer ahead of Kershaw, an outcome my heart just couldn't agree with. Still, coming up third is pretty good, no? It feels like Scherzer is as underappreciated as a guy with a $210 million contract can be. Beginning with his 2013 Cy Young campaign in Detroit, Scherzer has been a remarkable combination of dominance and consistency. And Kershaw aside, I'm not sure there is another pitcher I'd want on a day when he has his best stuff.
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: When adjusted for context, Kershaw might be on a best-of-all-time path. I'd also submit that, in this era of generally decreasing reliance on starting pitching, those handful of throwback types who provide comparable production to that of the best position players are as precious as they've ever been. I'm obviously not dinging Kershaw for his postseason record, as some might. In fact, the reason I would take Kershaw and the other elite starters in my top 10 so high is because of their ability to light the way for my team come October.
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: Whether you're looking backward or projecting forward, Trout is the easy answer. Even by the guiding definition I used to compile this list -- the players most likely to help me win this year's World Series -- I would take Trout, even if I knew he was on the disabled list as these picks were being made and it was uncertain exactly when he would be back on the field. That's just how much more impact Trout provides: His all-around brilliance outshines any other player in baseball.