Each week, ESPN.com writer and MMA Live Extra analyst Brett Okamoto provides his take on the hottest topics in the world of mixed martial arts.
This week, Okamoto squares off with television analyst and former UFC middleweight contender Brian Stann to debate the latest news and trends. Stann, a decorated U.S. Marine and former WEC light heavyweight champion, retired in 2013 at the age of 33.
1. Who will finish 2016 as the UFC's women's bantamweight champion?
Brian Stann: I think it's Holly Holm. Holding on to a championship belt for a year in this sport is extremely difficult, but I believe it will be Holly. I remember when she first started dabbling in MMA at [Jackson-Wink MMA Academy], she would just give rounds to other women in the gym because Jackson's always had a strong female team. But she was a high-level athlete, and more than that, she's extremely tough. She likes to challenge guys in altitude sprints, wind sprints -- and they'll turn her down because she's that tough. I moved coach Mike Winkeljohn one time -- we were moving furniture. Moving someone isn't fun, but Holly was there enjoying it. She's just a different character. There was a moment when I think she felt she was in the twilight of her fighting career, but now that she's done so well and come in to some really good money, I think she's rejuvenated and really anxious to see what else she can do with it.
Brett Okamoto: Right now, my gut says Holm. I find it hard to pick against her. She has a real opponent on her hands in Miesha Tate on March 5, but I favor Holm to win that. If she fights only twice in 2016 (which I think is pretty likely), you're looking at Tate next month and then the Ronda Rousey rematch in the second half. I don't know, maybe by the time the rematch comes, I'll be writing up an article predicting a Rousey win. But sitting here today, right now, with Rousey still mostly quiet since the loss and focusing on movie projects -- while Holm prepares to meet Tate in what's sure to be one of the biggest cards of the year -- it doesn't feel like Holm is going to surrender her spot at the top quietly. How can we doubt her again?
2. Jon Jones was cited for three traffic violations late last month, but it will not affect his probation from last year's hit-and-run case. Is this newsworthy?
Stann: I think it's very fortunate for him this happened. There are two situations in life where people make really big mistakes. One is when you're under a great amount of pressure -- you panic, make a mistake. The other is more dangerous -- it's when you're comfortable. That's when you take things for granted and get lazy. Jon has been in a focused state of mind to rebuild his brand, his body, reclaim his title and he has been very motivated. Now that he has had several months of success, that doesn't mean he can get lazy. I think this is a good reminder of how quickly the world can turn on him. He has a worldwide brand and he's the greatest fighter of all time, but there's so much more he can still do. He could have an incredible action movie career. There's a lot on the table for him. I remember Jon the first week he stepped into [Greg] Jackson's gym. I remember that guy, and that guy cared and wanted to achieve greatness and live up to his potential.
Okamoto: Unfortunately, it is news. Due to his own actions, Jones has placed himself under a microscope when it comes to stuff like this. The New Mexico district attorney's office (granted, only for a few hours) was "examining" Jones' citations to see if it warranted a violation of his plea agreement for his felony charge. As you might expect, getting caught speeding without a valid driver's license (which is what Jones did) isn't grounds for violating one's probation and being thrown in jail -- but man, is it too much to ask for Jones to just follow every law right now, considering what has happened to him? I mean, think how fortunate he is to come out of last year's mess relatively scot-free. He lost the UFC title and a lot of money, but he's back on April 23 -- less than one full year from the time of the crash he caused and fled from. Look, a court ruled on his case and issued punishment. He went through the system and, of course, these traffic violations are no biggie. Nobody's perfect -- but Jon, given the circumstances, could you try to be perfect as it pertains to obeying the law? Maybe buy back some good faith?
3. Who is the most dangerous threat to UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler?
Stann: Two people: Demian Maia and Stephen Thompson. The more dangerous one is Stephen Thompson. Him beating Patrick Cote and Jake Ellenberger is one thing. Jumping up and running through Johny Hendricks is another. Robbie Lawler is more of a stationary striker, who doesn't have exceptional footwork. If you're a guy who is willing to engage with Thompson and not immediately apply pressure and close distance, you're going to pay a dear price. I think Maia has shown his improved wrestling and once he gets you to the ground, there's really no return. But Thompson just has a style of striking that I think we're going to see more people evolve to. Robbie doesn't mind getting hit, in fact I think he kind of likes it, and that's dangerous in a Thompson fight.
Okamoto: I'm trying not to be swayed just because he happens to be the most recent welterweight we've seen, but I think I agree with Stann. It's Thompson. Either Thompson or Carlos Condit. If Condit gets an immediate rematch, I like his chances. He seemed to have the right game plan against Lawler and if given a second opportunity, I think he could execute it even better. Lawler is a phenomenal mixed martial artist but it's no secret -- he's not dominating the division. His title fights could not be any closer. He's a monster in the fifth round, maybe the best in the world at rising to the occasion of a fifth round in a back-and-forth war when both guys are hurt. Stylistically, I do think he'd make for a pretty easy target for Thompson's versatile, rangy striking though. Yeah, I think Thompson is his toughest fight.
4. Does last weekend's UFC victory for future CM Punk opponent Mickey Gall (2-0) have you more excited about Punk's eventual fight? Less excited? No effect?
[Note: CM Punk announced Wednesday he will have back surgery, further delaying his UFC debut.]
Stann: More interested. I said this on the broadcast, that for a 1-0 fighter, [Gall] is ahead of where he should be. When I spoke to him last week, I believed him when he told me this is about more than just CM Punk. CM Punk was a way for him to make a name for himself, in an industry where you do need to be part entertainer. He's taking advantage of an opportunity but I think he has talent. He might be able to back up what he said and finish Punk in the first round. I haven't seen Punk fight but this is a tough sport and he's 37. I give him a ton of credit for taking a massive brand that he has worked extremely hard to build and putting it all on the line to fight. I believe he truly is doing this for spiritual reasons, but I am more intrigued in the fight because I believe Mickey Gall might have staying power.
Okamoto: Has to be more, right? Even if you're not into the CM Punk experience (sounds like a 3D interactive movie at a theme park), if you watched Gall last weekend, I don't think you'd be less excited to see him fight Punk after how good he looked. If you read my weekend reaction piece, you know I didn't consider Michael Jackson to be a high level of competition. He was brought in as a sacrificial lamb and played that part beautifully. He didn't have aspirations to continue fighting in the UFC. Gall did and it showed. What I like about this is that it's now clear the UFC didn't just go out and find some can for Punk to kick around and look good against. He wants to fight? A real fight? Then let's not fake it. Have him fight someone at his level, but legit. Someone who has a good chance of beating him up and showing how brutal this sport can be. I think the UFC found someone capable of doing that in Gall. Now we'll see how Punk does.
5. Demetrious Johnson will seek his eighth flyweight title defense against Henry Cejudo at UFC 197 on April 23. Where does Cejudo rank among title challengers Johnson has fought?
Stann: I'm going to take some flak for this, but I think he is the toughest. I'm very close with the gentleman who was the team leader of the 2008 U.S. Olympic wrestling team, the year Cejudo won the gold. [Cejudo] didn't place in the 2007 world championships and then won the gold in 2008. This is a guy who ups his game when the lights are shining. He's not accustomed to losing. When guys fight Johnson, he's so far ahead of them they eventually think, "Just let me go the distance." Cejudo, every time he gets off the stool. he'll be looking for an answer to win. Also add to that, retaining the title is tough when you've been so dominant. Johnson is a high character guy, but that motivation, hunger, chip on your shoulder -- it's a tough thing to maintain. He has defended the title an awful lot. It gets harder and harder to get up for a fight.
Okamoto: Can't co-sign with Stann on this one. Joseph Benavidez has proven beyond any doubt he's the No. 2 flyweight in the world. As impressive as Cejudo has been, he doesn't have the IQ or experience to be considered a tougher test than Benavidez. So far, with Cejudo, he has showcased all of the individual components of an elite mixed martial artist, but he's still putting everything together. What does a fighter need to beat Demetrious Johnson? Other than a perfectly placed shot (puncher's chance), I think that fighter needs polish. If there's one thing we've witnessed a million times during Johnson's title run, it's that he identifies opponents' weaknesses and then spends 25 minutes exploiting them. Cejudo is great and I'm not writing off his chances, but he's not the biggest threat Johnson has faced.