The entire landscape of the UFC's strawweight division would look different today had the outcome of a December 2014 fight between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha been slightly different.
Jedrzejczyk narrowly edged Gadelha via split decision in that first fight. Had the decision gone in favor of Gadelha, there would not have been an uproar -- it was that close. Jedrzejczyk's perfect record remained intact and she went on to win the 115-pound championship in dominant fashion three months later. That loss in 2014 remains the only blemish on Gadelha's professional record.
A rematch between the two will headline The Ultimate Fighter 23 finale on Friday at MGM Grand Garden Arena. Let's take a closer look at that main event. Don't agree with the pick? Let MMA analyst Brett Okamoto know on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-0) vs. Claudia Gadelha (13-1)
Strawweight championship
Odds: Jedrzejczyk -130; Gadelha +110
You could even go one step further than my contention from earlier and say, "the entire landscape of the UFC's strawweight division would look different today, had one punch been different in December 2014." For my money, Jedrzejczyk was on her way to losing the first round of that initial matchup, until she landed a right uppercut that dropped Gadelha in the final 10 seconds. If that punch doesn't land, Gadelha wins the round and most likely the fight.
The current reality of the UFC's female divisions is that size plays a major factor. The promotion only offers divisions of 115 and 135 pounds, which means there are plenty of women essentially fighting outside of their "ideal" weight class. In her two most impressive title performances, Jedrzejczyk, who could easily fight at 125 pounds, teed off on undersized opponents in Carla Esparza and Jessica Penne. Gadelha is Jedrzejczyk's equal when it comes to size, which is certainly a plus.
The best way to beat Jedrzejczyk is, has been and probably will forever be to take her down. She's an absolute hacksaw on the feet. Her hand speed shines at every range, but particularly at a distance. She beats up opponents with the jab, and her leg kicks have visibly wounded several UFC opponents. In tight, she has great balance and very dangerous elbows from the clinch. When it comes to striking, she is the closest thing to a full package in the division -- arguably maybe the closest of any female fighter, period.
She does rely on the fence to prevent takedowns from time to time, however, and this is a potential weakness against Gadelha. In addition to having well-timed takedowns out in the open, Gadelha chain wrestles along the fence well and was able to drag Jedrzejczyk to the floor seven times in 15 minutes in their first fight. It takes a lot of energy to use this strategy against Jedrzejczyk, and Gadelha will be at risk of eating elbows and knees in doing so, but expect to see it throughout.
As is usually the case any time two young, elite fighters square off in a close bout, it appears both Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha improved as a direct result of their previous split decision. Jedrzejczyk's takedown defense and defensive wrestling in general has received high praise during her time as a champion, and Gadelha, although it was only one fight, looked exceptionally crisp (and relaxed) on her feet in her last outing against Jessica Aguilar. A product of Nova Uniao, Gadelha has a naturally powerful left hook, but she showcased an improved jab as well. Her boxing is not on the level of Jedrzejczyk's, but it's good enough that opponents have to respect it, and it at least opens more opportunities to work her wrestling.
Prediction: Gadelha evens the rivalry (and wins a title) via decision, 48-47.