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UFC 207 Cheat Sheet: Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt

It's been a wild year in mixed martial arts -- and it's almost fitting the UFC would close it out with the return of Ronda Rousey. You might say 2016 left us with more questions than answers about this sport. Heading into UFC 207 this Friday, the same can be said about Rousey: More questions than answers. How will she look after more than a year off, in her first appearance since the loss to Holly Holm? And even if she's at her peak, will it be enough to topple defending champion Amanda Nunes?

Questions surround the entire main card at UFC 207. Can Dominick Cruz put a cap on one of the greatest comeback years in the sport's history against Cody Garbrandt? And will TJ Dillashaw or John Lineker be waiting in the wings for the winner?

ESPN.com is here to tell you everything you need to know heading into the final pay-per-view event of the year, with its newest edition of UFC Cheat Sheets.

Dominick Cruz (22-1) vs. Cody Garbrandt (10-0), bantamweight championship

Odds as of Dec. 26: Cruz -190; Garbrandt +170


After comeback year, Cruz eyes "matchups" moving forward

It hasn't received as much attention as some of the year's other storylines, but the successful return of Dominick Cruz was one of the best things that happened in 2016.

For those of us who didn't live it, it's almost easy to forget everything Cruz went through in the previous four years. Just one appearance during that stretch, due to injuries. The UFC stripped him of his bantamweight title to keep the division moving.

Many of us began talking about Cruz's greatness in past tense. "Such a shame what's happened to him. Really hope he's able to return to form -- but one fight in four years ...."

In the space of one year, that's all changed. Cruz has re-established himself as the best bantamweight in the history of the division, and dropped a lot of promotional zingers along the way.

And at this stage of his career, Cruz says he's focused on new matchups. His satisfaction lies in neutralizing different styles, or in his words, "killing every martial art you have." It's part of the reason he says Garbrandt was attractive to him as an opponent. He's new.

"If you really look at the sport, excitement is what it's all about right now, period," Cruz said. "People want excitement. They're not out here to see rankings. Rankings are all hogwash anyway. Any of these guys can be the next best bantamweight if they get a shot. The entire reason the line is there for them to climb is to show that once they reach the top, they might have a chance to stay there.

"Cody is exciting. He's emotional. He talks. But is his style build to be a world champion for years on end? That remains to be seen. I've proven that I have the style to stay on top for a long time and adapt to any style thrown at me. Cody provides a different style I haven't seen yet. That's what people want to see."

Prior to accepting the title defense against Garbrandt, Cruz had campaigned for a super fight against current featherweight champion Jose Aldo. He said he's not necessarily campaigning for that fight anymore, but again: His interest comes down to matchups. Preferably ones he hasn't yet conquered.

"I've done things at 135 pounds nobody else has done," Cruz said. "Super fights are what's going on right now. That's what people are tuning into. I'm looking for fights that break the mold, that fans want to see -- and fans don't like rematches. The proof is in the pudding."


Athlete vs. fighter

When sizing up Cruz, Garbrandt sees a competitor and an athlete. But a "fighter?" Maybe. Depending on your definition of the word.

"He has skill in fighting, but Dominick is an athlete. He's not a fighter," Garbrandt said. "He goes into a fight to get a win. I go in to destroy my opponent and get a finish.

"I know the UFC is trying to sell this as a sport to its audience, but it's not a sport to me. I'm not in there to win a ribbon or a trophy. I'm there to be as violent as I can."

Garbrandt, fighting out of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, is an improbable title contender in some ways. It's taken just five fights -- less than two years -- for him to go from a young, unproven newcomer to one right hand away from gold.

He's endeared himself to fans and UFC brass with stories of a rough upbringing in Ohio and a highlight reel full of first-round knockouts. The former feeds the latter, according to Garbrandt, and represents one of his biggest advantages in a professional like Cruz, who has far more experience in five-round championship fights.

"Some of the street fights I've had -- Dom has never been stabbed and been in a fight for his life," Garbrandt said. "So, for him to say he doesn't know how I'm going to be in the fourth and fifth rounds of a fight, that's desperation on his part. If he's man enough to take me into those positions, I'm going to survive because I'm a fighter."

In the buildup to the fight, Cruz has referenced a knockout loss Garbrandt suffered in 2012, when he was still an amateur. Cruz has suffered well-documented injuries, but he's never been knocked out. To Garbrandt, that type of trash talk goes to show where Cruz's mind is, as he prepares to face a proven finisher.

"You talk about what you fear the most," Garbrandt said. "It's in his mind. So, saying it about me is a way of pushing his fears onto me. I've been knocking everyone out and he's fearful of it happening to him."


Key stats

  • Cruz: 7 wins by knockout, 1 win by submission

  • Cruz: 13-fight win streak dating to 2008 (lost only fight of career to Urijah Faber)

  • Cruz: 1 of 8 champions to win a UFC title on 2-plus occasions

  • Cruz: 72.1 percent significant strike defense in UFC fights according to FightMetric (highest among active UFC fighters, 4th all-time)

  • Cruz: Averages 4.6 takedowns per UFC fight according to FightMetric

  • Garbrandt: 7 of 9 knockout wins in the first round

  • Garbrandt: Outlanded opponents 157-103 in significant strikes according to FightMetric

  • Garbrandt: Trains at Team Alpha Male (teammate Faber and former teammate TJ Dillashaw both lost to Cruz)


Breakdown:

Everything we've come to know about Garbrandt tells us he's in a hurry.

His finishes are quick (seven first-round knockouts) and his rise to title contention has followed suit. After he knocked out fellow prospect Thomas Almeida in May, Garbrandt asked individual media members why he wasn't ranked higher as he passed media row. The 25-year-old is not known for patience.

Well, he's got his wish now. At 135 pounds, there is no challenge greater than Cruz in a five-round fight. Garbrandt's skill, speed, power -- all of it jumps off the page. But when you look at the caliber of opponents he's faced, there's nothing on there that comes close to Cruz.

Cruz is one of the toughest men to hit in the sport, and that might prove especially true against a power hitter like Garbrandt. Garbrandt loads up a little but he gets away with doing so because he's exceptionally fast. Cruz's feints and footwork should do a lot in terms of getting Garbrandt to hesitate, but his hand speed could be the equalizer.

An interesting piece of this is that Garbrandt flat out admits he prefers fighting with emotion, which is something Cruz will certainly look to exploit. Get the emotional, heavy-handed boxer to over commit on his punches and you'll find opportunity to plant him on his back. And we haven't seen much of Garbrandt off his back yet.

Prediction: Cruz via decision.


You make the call: