Professional fighters get to compete only a few times a year, assuming they are in good favor with their promotion and not sidelined by any significant injuries. And those are both big "ifs" in the volatile sport of MMA. That means when fights are lost, otherwise confident competitors have to sit on those defeats for many months to come, potentially longer, before they'll get a chance to redeem themselves and get back to winning ways.
So it's understandable that many fighters choose to get back in the cage as quickly as they can, regardless of how their last fight ended. But should they always be so quick to return, or is the eager fighter his own worst enemy?
This weekend, Frankie Edgar with will return to the Octagon after just 49 days. It's not unheard of to take two UFC bookings in just two months, but it's rare for someone who was knocked out in his last fight to do so. Edgar's layoff will be tied for the second shortest ever for a fighter suffering a knockout loss. That got us curious: How have fighters performed when taking a second fight with a short layoff between?
Layoff times and eager returns
If a fighter competes at least twice in a one-year period, the average layoff between appearances is 168 days since 2013. That's plenty of time for the body, and more importantly the brain, to heal from the traumas that can occur inside the Octagon. But there's a wide spread of layoff times among fighters, depending on circumstances.
For Donald Cerrone, his average layoff is less than 100 days, and even shorter until recently. He's famously taken numerous fights with two months or less between them, and he once fought two fights just 15 days apart. He's praised for this eagerness to compete, and financially he's benefited from more frequent paychecks. But after fighting four times each year from 2014 through 2016, he suffered a harsh TKO loss to Jorge Masvidal and was put in a "time out" by UFC president Dana White. Cerrone had fought Masvidal 49 days after defeating -- but being dropped by -- Matt Brown in a violent matchup, and even White could see the obvious effect of short turnarounds on one of his prized competitors.
And yet in recent history we've seen two high-profile bookings for fighters who took a lot of damage in their most recent fights. Michael Bisping may have lost his belt to Georges St-Pierre by submission at UFC 217, but only after being dropped to the canvas by a clean left hand at close range. That Bisping was concussed by any medical definition was obvious, and so too that he shouldn't return to training and certainly not compete anytime soon. Yet just two weeks after that loss, Bisping was on a flight to Singapore to accept a bout against a much younger and faster slugger, Kelvin Gastelum.
The result of Bisping's second fight in 21 days was a brutal first-round KO defeat, one that he thankfully already has taken six months off from in recovery. The willingness of a fighter with a championship mindset to take on more risk is not unusual. In this case, it's the promotion and Bisping's management team that share most of the blame for the brain damage we all saw coming and was viciously delivered. Prior concussions, especially recent ones, combined with the difficulties of cutting weight create a perfect storm for brain vulnerability.
Win percentage differs
Cerrone and Bisping are both exceptional fighters, but the examples of their most brutal defeats are just that -- arguments from exception. If we look at the rest of the UFC, we can begin to explore short layoffs and how they might impact fighters. This is just data mining what's available, because truly short layoffs, thankfully, are a fairly rare event, and the sample size wouldn't be a huge driver of predictions.
click to enlargeThe results are consistent with expectations: Short turnarounds stack the deck against fighters. The really interesting point is that it's not just those who lost but also those who won and came back too soon. Winning fighters who finish their fight and take minimal damage are most suited to surviving a short layoff, as competing through a full fight to a decision could still result in plenty of damage absorbed. This is important to remember for victorious fighters who may overlook the damage taken on the way to victory. The UFC is more likely to rebook a winning fighter with a short layoff than a losing one, but both groups are susceptible to the risks involved.
Fighters who took more than 90 days off between fights won more often than those who took less than 60. And the worst group, fighters who got finished in their most recent appearance and came back within 60 days, won just 13 percent of their fights, albeit with the smallest sample size. Fighters in these conditions won just two of 16 appearances since 2009.
Edgar will enter Saturday's bout with Cub Swanson at UFC Fight Night 128 in Atlantic City just 49 days after suffering his first and only stoppage defeat at the hands of Brian Ortega. Edgar has lost only to champion- and contender-level talent, and the bout with Swanson will be a litmus test as to Swanson's own chances at a UFC title shot. But Edgar opening as a minus-230 favorite (even bigger than the first meeting) seems to rely on his pedigree and the history of his previous fight with Swanson than the reality of Edgar's health. He still could win, obviously; he outwrestled and submitted Swanson once before. Edgar also has survived knockdowns to finish fights before ... but if you're a fan of Edgar's, do you really want him trying to do this? We should all rather see him compete at full health.