The NBA season begins Oct. 27! We're rolling out our Insider forecasts, two teams at a time, from now until opening night. Check out our analysis, projections and more!
No. 1: Cleveland
After falling two wins short last season, the Cavs added backup point guard Mo Williams (career 38 percent from 3) and 3-and-D vet Richard Jefferson to deepen an already explosive offense that ranked fourth at 107.7 points per 100 possessions. LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving have a projected 41.4 WARP (tops among any trio in the NBA, even with Irving sidelined to start the season with a fractured kneecap). They lead an offense that projects to be almost two points per game better in 2015-16. If all three are healthy this spring, Cleveland's 51-year title drought will end. -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 2: Chicago
Great news! Chicago returns an NBA-high 99 percent of its minutes from a 50-win team. To cash in on the considerable potential, new coach Fred Hoiberg's task is to find the delicate balance between speeding up the offense (21st in pace) and maintaining the well-established defense (five straight seasons in the top 10). But the Bulls have an effective age of 30.1 (sixth oldest), so Hoiberg doesn't have the luxury of time. -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 3: Atlanta
Fresh off a franchise-best 60 wins, the Hawks lost DeMarre Carroll (39.5 percent from 3). Replacing his perimeter skills on both ends won't be easy. No East team moved the ball and spaced the floor better than the Hawks (tops in the East in 3-point percentage and total assists). New center Tiago Splitter, though a good fix for the team's rebounding woes (22nd in defensive, 30th in offensive), has neither range nor passing skills. -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 4: Miami
This starry starting lineup, which remarkably didn't play a single minute together in 2014-15 due to myriad injuries, returns with explosive potential (projected sixth-ranked offense). If coach Erik Spoelstra improves his 19th-ranked defense (82 games of Hassan Whiteside, whose elite 97 defensive rating topped all centers last season, should help), a return to the Eastern Conference finals is possible. -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 5: Washington
In response to a second straight Eastern semis loss, the Wizards added fan favorite Jared Dudley. Indeed, success will hinge on internal development, but this team rides a conventional framework -- having bigs Nene and Marcin Gortat clog the middle -- that stunts its growth. The big question: Was the 3-point barrage in the playoffs (9.4 per game, versus 6.1 during the season) an aberration or a sea change? -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 6: Toronto
After two straight first-round losses, Toronto looks to be past its peak. The acquisitions of DeMarre Carroll and backup point guard Cory Joseph don't address the team's two biggest issues from 2014-15: interior D (50.1 percent allowed on 2s last season, 28th in the NBA) and shooting (Toronto projects to have the NBA's 15th-best effective field-goal percentage). If the Raptors were in the West, we'd be punching their lottery ticket. -- Amin Elhassan
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No. 7: Milwaukee
Milwaukee's shocking 26-game jump last season was driven by the trio of Michael Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose length let the Bucks employ a hyperaggressive D that produced the highest forced-turnover rate of the past three seasons. The next step? The offense (projected 24th). The Bucks were seventh in assist rate but need to cut down on their 29th-ranked turnover rate. -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 8: Boston
The glass-half-empty folks groan that Boston still doesn't have a star to build around while Danny Ainge's chest of draft picks collects dust. But boy genius Brad Stevens is cooking up something interesting: Boston's players 6-9 or taller made 208 3s last season (sixth), and the sneaky-good adds of real plus-minus darling Amir Johnson (projected 3.9) and former 20-and-10 man David Lee make the Celts sleepers in the East. -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 9: Indiana
Credit the Pacers for trying. As Indiana aims for its own pace-and-space style (gone is the plodding frontcourt once owned by Roy Hibbert and David West), it's uncertain whether the team has the shooters to make it work. Paul George (SCHOENE: 18.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists per game) is the only member of the rotation projected to finish in the 75th percentile or better in 3-point percentage. Dust off Larry Legend! -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 10: Charlotte
The good news: A renovated roster featuring Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin and rookie Frank Kaminsky -- all three project to at least 11 points per 36 minutes -- should give punch to an offense that ranked 28th and shot an NBA-worst 31.8 percent from 3 in 2014-15. The (really) bad news: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's injury drops a stifling D once projected 10th best all the way to 20th. -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 11: Detroit
Stan's grand plan begins. Out are non-shooting cloggers Josh Smith and Greg Monroe. In are stretch 4s Ilyasova and Morris (a Ryan Anderson, if you will). Oh, and that Drummond guy (projected 14.1/13.4)? Kinda Dwight-like! Though SCHOENE predicts this season's offense to be 17th and its 3-point shooting tied for 27th, the Stan Van Gundy blueprint is well in place. -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 12: Brooklyn
Two years ago, Brooklyn traded three future first-round picks to field an All-Star lineup that won ... one series. Tepid talent remains, and coach Lionel Hollins' approach is, um, retro, to say the least. The Nets project as the NBA's third-worst offense; last season they were 25th in assist percentage and 28th in total passes per game. Brooklyn's future, just like its offense, is ugly. -- Bradford Doolittle
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No. 13: Orlando
Last season's offense (27th) won't bounce back unless Victor Oladipo (projected 34 percent from 3) can find a reliable stroke next to Elfrid Payton, who hit just 11 total 3s. Magic coach Scott Skiles is notoriously tough on rookies, so to no one's surprise, walking highlight Mario Hezonja projects to see just 12 minutes per game. Skiles will help this 24th-ranked D, but another season in the cellar is in order. -- Tom Haberstroh
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No. 14: New York
Uh, it's not going so well for Phil Jackson's Knicks. In a franchise-worst season, New York ranked 28th in D and 29th in O. And that's no typo. Free-agent acquisitions Arron Afflalo (projected 35.2 percent from 3) and Robin Lopez (team-high 2.6 defensive RPM) will help, and Carmelo Anthony projects to return to his usual self (23.7 PPG/7.3 RPG/ 2.8 APG). But with limited scoring elsewhere and no first-rounder in 2016, Phil's triangle is more Bermuda than Chicago. -- Brad Doolittle
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No. 15: Philadelphia
Trust the process! Philly ranked 13th on defense last season behind DPOY contender Nerlens Noel, whose 4.2 defensive win shares were the best for a rookie since Tim Duncan in '99. Now the hope is for rookie Jahlil Okafor (projected 17.1 PPG and 11.1 RPG per 36 minutes) to make a similar impact on offense. More good news: Coach Brett Brown, formerly of the Spurs, has some experience with twin towers. -- Brad Doolittle
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No. 1: Golden State
How to top a franchise-best 67 wins and the first title in 40 years? Well, returning the top nine players in minutes played certainly helps, and the Warriors should land in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency for the second straight season. But there's a reason they project to seven fewer W's: SCHOENE predicts the Spurs, Clippers and Rockets will have top-10 defenses. It also predicts a drop in the Warriors' effective field-goal percentage (an NBA-high 54 percent last year) and declines in points per game and 3-point percentage for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. They'll still be great -- but great might not be good enough. -- Amin Elhassan
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No. 2: San Antonio
Even when the Spurs lose, they win. After a first-round exit from the playoffs, they landed free agent forward LaMarcus Aldridge, the NBA's most active midrange shooter. Yes, it's a decidedly anti-Spurs skill, but he drops a solid 41 percent from there, giving space to an offense RPM predicts to score 107.2 points per 100 possessions (fifth best). After five titles and 18 straight playoff appearances, this could be the Spurs' best roster. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 3: Houston
Drives and 3s: The Rockets' recipe for success. But what they really need is the healthy Dwight Howard who dominated in the playoffs (16.4 points, 14.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game). Because while Houston attempted the most 3-pointers in the NBA the past two seasons, it shot worse than league average both years (35.8 and 34.8 percent, respectively). Improvement in those areas will determine whether it truly belongs in the West's top tier. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 4: Los Angeles
The Clippers' biggest downfall was being forced to give big minutes to the likes of Austin Rivers (10.3 PER) and Glen Davis (10.8). Guh. The talented Lance Stephenson and veteran Paul Pierce, both plus defenders (projected +0.8 and +1.3 defensive RPM, respectively), will help a unit that ranked just 15th last season. But with a roster with an average effective age of 30.3 (NBA's fourth oldest), time is increasingly of the essence. -- Amin Elhassan
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No. 5: Oklahoma City
The Thunder's biggest task this season? Convincing Kevin Durant that he can win in OKC. Sure, Durant (projected 24.4/6.7/4.4) and Russell Westbrook form the top duo in projected WARP this season (combined 31.6), but we've heard that before. It's the supporting cast that's never been quite good enough. And signing RPM laggard Enes Kanter (340th last season) won't move the needle. It's do-or-die time in OKC. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 6: Memphis
In a league that's gone perimeter, the Grizzlies pound it inside. Memphis led the league with 47.1 paint points per game and projects to make the second-fewest 3s. And with the NBA's oldest roster at an average effective age of 31.5, how long, oh lord, can the Grizz survive on grit 'n' grind? Even with underrated acquisitions Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright (combined 12.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game), this team is on the decline. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 7: New Orleans
Two-way superstar Anthony Davis, impossibly only 22, led the NBA in PER (30.9) and blocks (2.9) last season and has improved in basically every statistical category over his first three years. How will the Pels continue their rise? Simple: Get AD the ball more. To do that, new coach Alvin Gentry needs to up his team's 27th-ranked pace of play (93.7 possessions per game), giving Davis more looks to work his unbelievably efficient game. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 8: Dallas
Despite failing to sign DeAndre Jordan, the Mavericks look surprisingly decent. Deron Williams (16th point guard in RPM) and Wesley Matthews (seventh among shooting guards) both rate well, but health will be a big determining factor this season. Matthews and Chandler Parsons are coming off surgeries, and old reliable Dirk Nowitzki is 37. Fit or not, this is a playoff-contending team. But nothing more. And perhaps less. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 9: Utah
This is the NBA's third-youngest team (24.9), and even without second-year point guard Dante Exum, out with a torn ACL, SCHOENE projects the Jazz to finish in the top half in defense and offense. After the All-Star break last season, a giant frontcourt featuring 6-10 Derrick Favors and 7-1 Rudy Gobert led Utah to a 19-10 record and the NBA's best D. Behold! Your sleeper team in the West. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 10: Phoenix
Talk about best-laid plans. In their attempt to lure LaMarcus Aldridge, the Suns signed Tyson Chandler to anchor a D that allowed 103.3 ppg (26th in the NBA) in 2014-15. The issue is that Chandler finished 118th in opponent field goal percentage at the rim. And, of course, Aldridge signed with San Antonio, leaving the Suns where no team wants to be: not good enough to contend but not bad enough to rebuild. -- Amin Elhassan
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No. 11: Portland
Portland is rebuilding after losing four starters this summer. Thankfully, the hardest part, finding a corner-stone, is done. Lillard, 25, projects to have the fifth-best WARP among point guards this season (11.3). And the Trail Blazers should have $32 million to spend next offseason. A rebuild is tough to take after a 51-win season, but at least Portland is positioned to make it a short one. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 12: Sacramento
In owner Vivek Ranadive's world, Sacramento, a team that hasn't eclipsed 30 wins since 2007-08, is ready now. In this world, new point guard Rajon Rondo (projected RPM of -4.7), shooting guard Marco Belinelli and small forward Caron Butler propel this team to the West's upper echelon. The reality? This season's team is only marginally better -- typical theater for the NBA's most dysfunctional franchise. -- Amin Elhassan
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No. 13: Denver
The trade of Ty Lawson signaled the merciful end of Denver's long stay in NBA purgatory (nine first-round exits in 12 years). Oh, it'll get ugly -- a projected 29th-ranked offense and 24th-ranked D -- but young talent remains, and help is on the way. Jusuf Nurkic (projected 15.2/12.1 per 36 minutes) and No. 7 pick Mudiay await as many as four first-round picks in 2016. -- Kevin Pelton
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No. 14: Los Angeles
Give the Lakers some credit: Trading for Roy Hibbert (42.6 percent opponent field goal percentage at the rim) will help their 29th-ranked D; D'Angelo Russell's statistical rookie-year comp is Kyrie Irving; and a healthy Julius Randle looks like their power forward of the future. Good news for the looming post-Kobe era, right? Not so much. The Lakers have improved just enough to send their 2016 top-three-protected pick to Philly.-- Amin Elhassan
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No. 15: Minnesota
Minnesota has two cornerstones in ROY Andrew Wiggins and 2015 No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns. Now if the Timberwolves just didn't have so many bricks. They shot just 46.1 percent on 2s and 33.2 percent on 3s while taking an NBA-low 17.9 percent of shots beyond the arc. This season they project to make the fewest 3s again. As is often the case with this franchise, the offense again looks stone cold. -- Kevin Pelton
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