It's Monday and the weekend's action is in the book, so it's time to react with fire or cool the jets on some NBL takes.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
The South East Melbourne Phoenix will miss the Play-In altogether
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
On last week's episode of The Jump, we were asked to make a "bold prediction". My bold prediction was that Mitch Creek could win the MVP. The reason for this actually being bold was that, time and time again, we have learned that the Phoenix can't be trusted. Whether it's consistency of output or health, there is always a setback with this club right when you think they have steadied. Contingent on the health of Creek, I expect the Phoenix to still land in the top six, but let's face it, nothing would surprise at this point with this highly-talented roster. The rollercoaster continues.
Peter Hooley: Headline.
I was tempted to make this a storyline, because the concerns are real for the Phoenix right now. The only reason I kept it a headline is because the teams around the Phoenix are playing very inconsistently and in the end it might save them a spot in the six. However, with Mitch Creek set to miss a few games, it doesn't look great for them after what we saw last weekend. They lost by a combined 56 points across Round 11 and the most concerning part of that was the fact they gave up 100 points to the Hawks. Yes, Illawarra are a different team of late and are playing with a whole lot of energy, but defensively South East Melbourne looked lost and just couldn't get any stops. Every team has to deal with injuries in a season that impacts them on the offensive end, but the good ones still find a way to get enough defensive stops to be competitive until they're healthy. Big tests coming up for the Phoenix.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
Look, I don't think the Phoenix are going to go into any round from here on out and lose by a combined 56 points; that feels like an anomaly. However, with the circumstances around where they're at right now -- losing an import, Creek's injury, and the roster construction from this off-season not really fixing their depth or shooting issues -- I'm not sure they go into any game against a non-Adelaide team as the favourite to win it. Again, the circumstances aren't favouring them, because they've had to face the Hawks after they'd turned things around, and will again next month. Same for their matchup in New Zealand at the end of January. As currently constructed, they can't guard, and don't have the offensive firepower to get enough points on the board. They're maybe the second worst team in the league right now -- form wise -- and have a tough remaining schedule, so making the six is going to be a hell of a challenge.
Illawarra are a more challenging opponent than New Zealand down the stretch
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
I still believe the Hawks are coming from too far back to reach the Play-In Tournament this season, though, the preseason hype around the Illawarra roster was on par with the Breakers and as of right now, the Hawks are the healthier bunch. Remarkably, Illawarra are conceding 19.2 fewer points per 100 possessions under Justin Tatum than they were Jacob Jackomas.
The exciting part? Illawarra face the No. 2 offence (Tasmania) and No. 3 offence (Sydney) in the next two games. Let's see what the rejuvenated Hawks are all about.
Peter Hooley: Headline.
I'm on board this Hawks train under Justin Tatum. They have been fun to watch, no doubt, but I feel New Zealand have more talent coming back and will therefore make a real run at the top six if they continue to play like they did Friday. When Will McDowell-White returns, along with Zylan Cheatham, this team could cause some real problems if they can just keep ticking off win-by-win. Anthony Lamb and Parker Jackson-Cartwright are two of the best players in the entire competition and it's hard to even imagine how strong this team could be when everyone is healthy, because we just haven't seen it in NBL24.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
I echo my friends with the appreciation for the Hawks being able to turn things around and look like a competitive, functional basketball team, but it feels like there's more stability with the Breakers. Mody Maor is more proven as a head coach, so you put some stock in that, but it really comes down to the talent the Breakers can put on the floor. Once Cheatham and McDowell-White are back, they go into any given game with maybe the best three players every single time; combine that with them trending in the right direction defensively, and this team could very well reach the potential we knew they had all along.
Will Magnay needs to start for Tasmania from now
Kane Pitman: Headline.
For the last three years, any real conversation around the true ceiling of the JackJumpers ultimately included some variation of a healthy Will Magnay being a major piece. Right now, the big man is playing around 17 minutes per night and it's unclear how far that total will ramp up on the road to the postseason. From a statistical perspective, Tasmania are having success with both Magnay (+23.0 per 100 possessions) and Marcus Lee (+15.2 per 100 possessions) on the floor this season, giving them the luxury of playing the long game down the stretch of the season. In a perfect world, Magnay will get to 25 minutes and starting by the playoffs. Fingers crossed for good health, but there's no need to rush right now. While the minutes are on the low end, it might be easier to come off the bench and be available in the fourth quarter.
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
It's time. Tasmania have turned things around defensively since Will Magnay returned to the lineup and prior to last round starting, everyone had them as the team most likely to challenge Melbourne United. Whilst that probably hasn't changed after the two losses on the weekend, it probably highlighted and sped up the process for Magnay to now be the JackJumpers guy going forward. Marcus Lee is still vital to this team's success, but Magnay either needs more minutes (if his conditioning allows it) or to start the game. What both bigs do defensively, Magnay takes to another level as an offensive pick-and-roll threat and it opens up a lot more scoring opportunities for their elite guards.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
We know how impressive the JackJumpers have looked since Magnay returned to the lineup, and I think it's clear he's their most effective two-way big. The reason I'd like to see him start, is actually to unlock Marcus Lee. We saw during his time with Melbourne just how much his energy and dynamism can lift a team, and him being a spark plug off the bench may be the best way to squeeze that out of him; his production has dipped of late, so this may allow him to be a spark plug when the team needs it. Of course, the Magnay-being-really-good part of this is also real. We always talk about it not really mattering who starts, but Magnay's rim protection and second shot creation is among the best in the league, so setting the tone early with his imposition in the paint could be really effective.