Since 1990, only eight teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4. A year ago, however, the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans both did it after incredible runs.
The Chiefs won 10 of their last 11 games to grab a wild-card spot. The Texans won the AFC South by winning eight of their last 11.
Which of the 14 teams currently under .500 this season are most likely to get hot and go on a run? Based on recent history, a profile can be designed. Some of it is based on schedule. Some of it is based on how the team is constructed. And some of it is having key players at certain positions. Here are the categories:
Environment: To make the playoffs after a slow start, teams need to either be in a conference that is down or in a division that could be won with seven to nine victories. Two qualifiers fit this category. In 2002, the Tennessee Titans won 10 of 11 games and the New York Jets won eight of 11 after starting 1-4. Indianapolis and Pittsburgh were the only AFC teams that won more than 10 games that season. A couple AFC teams are poised to go on a similar run this season. Nine of the 16 teams have losing records. The New England Patriots are the only one-loss team.
Schedule: As long as their remaining opponents don't have a combined winning percentage of .530 or more, teams have a chance. Teams that start slow have issues, and it's hard to imagine them making a big run going against winning teams they couldn't beat in the first seven weeks.
Reliable quarterback play: You don't necessarily need a future Hall of Famer at quarterback to get hot, but it sure helps. Brett Favre led the Packers' run from 1-4 to 10-6 in 2004. Steve McNair of the Titans and Chad Pennington of the Jets did it in 2002. Instability at quarterback is a disqualifier.
Win in your division: The Chiefs and Texans went 5-1 in their divisions last season.
Score some points: If the offense can consistently supply 21 or more points per game, a team can rise from the bottom.
Play good defense: Last season, 11 of the 12 playoff teams surrendered 20.2 or fewer points per game. Defense keeps teams in games. Last season, the Chiefs gave up 28.6 points per game in their first five contests. By the end of the season, they were allowing 17.9 points per game.
Here's how I rank the 14 teams with losing records, in order of how likely they are to go on a run and make the playoffs:
1. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
Though the Bengals haven't played particularly well -- in part because of a tough early schedule -- they check all of the boxes for a team that could get hot. Quarterback Andy Dalton has been efficient. The defense is giving up 23.1 points per game but has the talent to go under 20. The teams left on their schedule have a combined winning percentage of .492. The Bengals' only AFC North loss was in Pittsburgh, and they get the Steelers at home on Dec. 18. The offense -- scoring just 20 points per game so far -- has the potential to get to 24. And the return of tight end Tyler Eifert, who missed six games due to injury, should improve Cincinnati's passing offense and red zone production.