Skittles sales are about to rise in Oakland. Marshawn Lynch is joining the Raiders, replacing Latavius Murray atop the team's tailback depth chart. Lynch will add the early-down component to a running back unit that also includes intriguing second-year scatbacks Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington.
Lynch turns 31 this month and hasn't played football since last January, which raises obvious questions about his effectiveness. Of course, it's hard to imagine anything less than high-end production from one of the league's best backs over the past decade.
If Lynch's age and time off haven't caught up to him, he'll undoubtedly be a key component to Oakland's offense. Assuming he's able to handle 14-16 carries per game, a reasonable 16-game projection would be as follows: 248 carries for 1,083 yards, 33 receptions for 267 yards and 10 total touchdowns. Those of you in fantasy leagues should view Lynch as a mid-pack RB2 option.
Lynch racked up 6,347 yards and 57 touchdowns on 1,457 carries (4.4 yards per carry) with Seattle in six seasons. And during his nine seasons in the league, only Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and Chris Johnson exceeded Lynch's 9,112 rushing yards, and only Peterson ran for more than his 74 touchdowns. Always a stud near the goal line, Lynch paces the NFL with 100 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line over the past decade. And yes, that includes the 2016 season.
Lynch is one of the league's toughest runners and sports a 5-foot-11, 215-pound frame, so it's a hardly a surprise that he's been so dominant at shaking off defenders. Lynch ranked either first or second overall in forced missed tackles each season, spanning from 2011-14, according to our friends at Pro Football Focus. He ranked 15th in the category during an injury-plagued 2015 season that limited him to seven games.
During his final three seasons in Seattle, Lynch averaged 2.20 yards after contact per attempt, which tops the NFL among backs with at least 310 carries since 2013. Interestingly, this is also an area where Richard and Washington had a ton of success last season. The two backs ranked first and second, respectively, among 53 backs who carried the ball at least 80 times.
Lynch's post-contact production adds to a running game already set up for success, thanks to arguably the league's best offensive line. Tackles Donald Penn and Austin Howard, guards Kelechi Osemele and Gabe Jackson and center Rodney Hudson all return from last season's standout unit. Stud blocking tight end Lee Smith will also return after missing all but four games with a broken leg last season. Oakland's tailbacks averaged 4.66 yards per carry last season (sixth best), 2.55 of which was generated prior to initial contact (12th). Seattle ranked 24th, 21th and 23rd in yards before contact per attempt during Lynch's final three seasons with the team.
The Raiders' breakout 2016 season should not have been a surprise. This is a good team, especially offensively. In addition to the aforementioned stacked line, Oakland sports a terrific wide receiver duo in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, an upgraded tight end unit with Jared Cook joining Smith and Clive Walford, and of course, one of the game's top young quarterbacks in Derek Carr.
A rejuvenated Lynch is icing on the cake for an offense that already ranked eighth in the NFL in touchdowns per game (2.8) last season. Oakland has some holes to fill defensively, but this is a franchise that absolutely can make a Super Bowl run.