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Why don't the Falcons use Bijan more? It's complicated

Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Bijan Robinson, often wearing black, steps out onto the field for his pregame warmups. He starts by running forward, first with jogs, then with sprints.

Then the Atlanta Falcons running back graduates to cutting, looking like he's floating down the field with a bouncy house floor underneath him instead of grass or artificial turf. It's tantalizing watching him move, both in warmups and in games, which has made him one of the most intriguing players in the NFL.

It's left fans wanting more of Robinson, especially as Atlanta has struggled, dropping five of the last seven games. Meanwhile coach Arthur Smith has been in his own quandary with his star rookie -- how much to use him without wearing him out.

"That is the balance. It's a long game," Smith said. "You have 17 [games] and you want to play more. We have an opportunity to that, even as frustrated as you can feel on Monday or after a game like that.

"So yeah, that's the evolution of it. Now's the time."

Some of the questions about Robinson's usage, though, could be fallacy, accentuated by a lack of end zone/red zone usage.

"I know he expects us to have a lot in the game plan," Robinson told ESPN last month. "He puts me in different situations, whether it's in motion or it's a decoy route or a route, so there's a lot I know he wants to do with me.

"I don't really worry about it too much. I just need to make sure that I'm in condition and prepared to handle whatever he asks of me that week."

Robinson's 417 offensive snaps this year are fourth among NFL running backs -- one of six with over 400 snaps -- and playing 65.1% of Atlanta's offensive snaps ranks eighth.

Robinson has 714 scrimmage yards on 131 touches -- both ranked No. 16 entering Week 10. His 517 rushing yards are ninth and his 16 rushes of 10-plus yards are third, tied with San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey, trailing only Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson (19) and Miami's Raheem Mostert (19). Of the top 10 rushers, only Mostert (5.6 yards per carry) is averaging more than Robinson's five yards per rush.

Add in Robinson's receiving work -- his 210 routes run make him one of two running backs, along with Tampa Bay's Rachaad White, with over 200 run routes -- and Atlanta asks a lot. He moves all over the field -- 48 snaps in the slot are the most in the league for a running back, seven more than McCaffrey and 42 snaps as an outside receiver are the most among backs, 11 ahead of Philadelphia's D'Andre Swift.

Some of this turns Robinson into an attention-grabber, helping get other players open -- a plan which could pay longer-term dividends and free Robinson up more as the season progresses. Yet his 14.2% target share is fourth on Atlanta behind Drake London (19.1%), Kyle Pitts (18.1%) and Jonnu Smith (15.3%). Combined, they account for two-thirds of the Falcons' targets. Robinson is fourth among running backs in target share behind McCaffrey (17.2%), Jacobs (15.3%) and Alvin Kamara (15.1%).

All this with a player who was primarily a runner at Texas.

"It's definitely an adjustment," Robinson said. "Because that's a new craft that I'm doing, too."

Keep in mind, these numbers are skewed because Robinson barely played against Tampa Bay due to illness.

Minus that game, Robinson is averaging 16.25 touches a game, No. 13 in the league. Just one rookie is averaging more than Robinson -- Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs at 17.33 touches a game, but Gibbs missed two games and his touches skyrocketed with David Montgomery injured.

While Robinson believes he can handle a heavy workload, the Falcons are trying to avoid injury and burnout.

"There's ebbs and flows to the season. We're trying to, obviously there's 17 of those games in which we want to see and have that we're guaranteed in the regular season," Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said. "We want to make sure that we've got guys peaking, we've got guys in the right position at the right times.

"And we want to continue to keep that going right through a long NFL season."

An area where Robinson has not received work has been near the end zone. He's had nine red zone carries along with three catches for 18 yards and two touchdowns on 21 routes run.

His target share dropped to 9.1% in the red zone, tied with tight end MyCole Pruitt and behind London (30.3%), Smith (18.2%) and Pitts (12.1%). The Falcons have also leaned on Tyler Allgeier as a red zone rusher, too, with 25 carries for 72 yards and three touchdowns.

Robinson showed a proclivity for work in the red zone at Texas. In his three seasons with the Longhorns, Robinson had 81 carries, averaging 2.9 yards a carry in the red zone with 22 touchdowns.

Smith explained Robinson's red zone work in a number of ways, starting with some of it having multiple talented players. Some of it are zone read decisions, where the quarterback (at the time Desmond Ridder) kept the ball himself and it led to positive plays. Other times where Robinson was the planned recipient, the defense took him out of the play or a penalty nullified it. And they have to look at their own playcalling, too.

In some ways, the questions surrounding Robinson -- effective everywhere but the red zone and end zone -- mirrors the Falcons.

Since the start of October, the Falcons have averaged 270.8 passing yards a game (fourth in the league), 121.6 rushing yards per game (11th in the league) and the combined 392.4 yards per game is No. 3 in the NFL, behind only Baltimore and Detroit. Their third-down conversion rate, 44%, is sixth in the NFL.

Yet the Falcons have put up 20.4 offensive points per game. Their red zone touchdown rate of 47.1% is tied for 25th in the league with Minnesota and the 50% goal-to-go touchdown rate is No. 26 in the league, tied with Detroit.

The team's four red zone turnovers in the span are the most in the NFL and 14 teams have none and the 61.5%-38.5% run-pass differential in the red zone is the fourth-largest run-over-pass disparity in the league.

With turnovers -- particularly in the red zone -- an issue and scoring being a problem, it'll accentuate the questions around how players are used. Even if there are signs of progress, including with Robinson as both a primary player and an attention-grabbing decoy, something which should evolve as the season progresses.

ESPN Stats & Information contributed to this report.