DETROIT -- The Detroit Lions started the season with a statement victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, then raced out to a 6-2 record before their Week 9 bye.
But despite going 3-2 over their next five games, cracks began to show, culminating in a dismal 28-13 loss at the four-win Chicago Bears on Sunday.
As of Tuesday morning, the Lions (9-4) still have a 97% chance to make the playoffs and an 81% chance to win the NFC North, according to ESPN Analytics. However, a sudden propensity for turnovers on offense and a defense struggling to get off the field are trends that have become difficult to ignore for a team whose playoff ceiling appears to have lowered over the past five weeks.
"I think so, I really do," said Lions former All-Pro offensive lineman Lomas Brown, when asked if the defense was holding Detroit back. "If the offense doesn't help our defense out and we put our defense in a tough situation going up against some of these teams that we have to face, and I'm thinking [about the] playoffs, those are the teams I'm thinking about. If our offense can't complement our defense and help them out, it could be a long, long day for us going up against some of these good teams."
The Lions have four games left to start clicking like they were in the first half of the season. Here are the issues they must overcome.
Turnovers
The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in offensive efficiency (63.56) since week 10 and have scored the sixth most points per game (28.0).
However, the offense has struggled with turnovers over that span. Their 10 turnovers are tied for the second most in the NFL and match the total of their first 8 games of the season.
Over the last four games, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has committed eight turnovers himself -- five interceptions and three fumbles. Coach Dan Campbell made the team work through additional ball security drills during the practices that followed their loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. Goff went turnover free in the victory at the New Orleans Saints the next week, but threw two interceptions against Chicago on Sunday. The Lions must clean up this issue.
"It's a little reality check," Goff said after Sunday's Bears loss. "Okay, look in the mirror, fix it. We got some time in the next four games, it starts with Denver, to get it fixed, get geared up for our ultimate goals. It's a good gut punch that typically does our guys well."
Defensive struggles
Campbell pinned the Bears loss to a lack of discipline, but quite frankly, the Lions haven't looked their best since the bye. They have lost two of their last three games and all but one of their last five games have been decided by one score.
Rookie defensive back Brian Branch is confident the team can correct the mistakes with better communication, effort and regaining their "grit mentality."
"The fact that we're in a position to win it all. That's motivation right there, and we feel like this is our year," Branch told ESPN. "The defense, we haven't been playing to the standard that we want to play, but we're just going to keep on chopping wood and hopefully we can get back to that standard these last few games."
Chief among the Lions' issues is the defense. The unit has allowed 29.8 points per game since Week 10, the third most in the NFL behind only the Washington Commanders (37.5) and Philadelphia Eagles (31.5). From Weeks 1-8 they allowed 20.6 points, tied for 16th most in the NFL.
The Lions had the sixth best defensive efficiency in the NFL (67.84) through the first eight weeks. They are sixth worst since Week 10 (33.88), while allowing more than twice as many rushing touchdowns (13 to 6).
Injuries have not helped. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill (knee sprain) recently was added to the injured reserve list, while safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and pass rusher James Houston suffered serious injuries (torn pectoral muscle and a broken fibula, respectively) in the Week 2 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Campbell is hoping Gardner-Johnson and Houston can return in late December or January. But in the meantime, the defense has work to do.
No panic
Campbell said he's not in "panic mode" nor losing any confidence in what the team can accomplish this season -- a sentiment that has trickled down to the players.
Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell says he's pushing himself and his teammates to improve and be more detail-oriented in their preparation.
"We're going out there and playing hard, but at the same time we need to be focused on the details," Campbell told ESPN. "I feel like that's probably the pinpoint and myself included, I'll raise my hand first, I can be better at the details, but at the same time, just never not giving the play 100% and just respecting the game.
"I feel like we do a good job at that, but like everyone is saying we just need to put a full game together," he said. "We just need to continue to work. We can't get too high and too low and that's kind of the focus right now."
Second-year edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is also looking to find consistency.
"We either have a really hot start or we have a really good second half. So, if there's one thing we're doing well, it's either the first half or the second half," Hutchinson said. "But we've just got to put it all together.
The Lions are not only trying to make the playoffs, but also win there for the first time since the 1991 season.
If they don't, those inconsistencies could mean a first-round exit.
"That is the million-dollar question," Hutchinson said. "That's something that we're trying to figure out right now."