EAGAN, Minn. -- In the eight weeks since quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his right Achilles tendon, the Minnesota Vikings have thrown an NFL-worst 11 interceptions. Two of Cousins' backups have thrown four in a single game, a feat matched by one other team in the past 10 seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
For Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, at least, the takeaway is clear.
"I really think it goes to show the rest of the world the type of player Kirk is," Jefferson said. "At the end of the day, this is a tough league and not everybody is meant for this job. It's tough not having [Cousins] out there, the captain that he is, the leader that the is. He's a great player."
Jefferson later emphasized he was not taking a shot at backup quarterback Nick Mullens, who had thrown an interception with 49 seconds remaining in Sunday's 30-24 loss to the Detroit Lions. But Jefferson was doing more than pointing out the difference between starters and backups at the pro level.
His comments Sunday, which he reiterated later in the week, crystalized a growing perception the Vikings will need to re-sign Cousins this winter -- or acquire a quarterback with similar skills -- for the current iteration of their offensive scheme to succeed in future seasons.
Cousins' value aside, if there is a broad conclusion to be taken from watching the Vikings' offense over the past two months, it is that coach Kevin O'Connell has been unwilling to substantively adjust the high-level passing scheme Cousins was on his way to mastering but has proved too difficult for his backups.
The Vikings scored 58 points in their first two games without him, largely because of quarterback Joshua Dobbs improvisational skills and O'Connell's dexterity in navigating him through pre-snap reads. Since then, however, they are 1-4 amid a flurry of turnovers, mostly from their quarterbacks. O'Connell said Thursday he will turn to rookie Jaren Hall for Sunday night's game against the Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), saying "we have to maintain possession of the football," but made no promises about adjusting the scheme to reflect Hall's experience or skill set.
The Vikings have averaged nearly the same number of dropbacks per game (41.0) since Cousins' injury as they did before (41.8), and roughly the same number of average air yards per attempt (7.1-7.4), even amid the common thread of turnovers from Dobbs to Mullens. And they have not worked to give their backups easy throws. O'Connell has called, for example, the fewest screen passes (nine) in the NFL since Cousins' injury.
But O'Connell has batted away questions on his commitment to the downfield passing game, including whether he asked too much of Mullens during a two-game stint that produced six interceptions in 78 dropbacks, with a seventh called back by penalty and an eighth dropped by a defender. "Looking back on the individual stories of these turnovers over the last two games," he said, "they do come down to decision making."
Mullens also fumbled twice against the Lions, and on a third he was ruled to have been sacked before losing the ball. O'Connell also pushed back against suggestions his eagerness for explosive passing plays against the Lions overestimated Mullens' ability to execute.
Sunday's game plan all but ignored the running game, with 40 dropbacks and 11 rushes on 51 total plays, and led Mullens to throw 18 passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield -- more than any NFL quarterback in the past two seasons. All four of his interceptions came on those throws, including a final heave that fluttered in the air long enough for Lions safety Ifeatu Melifonwu to make up a 5-yard cushion and get in front of Jefferson to clinch the win.
In a revealing back-and-forth with Vikings radio announcer Paul Allen posted on the Vikings' website, O'Connell said he wanted to capitalize on a rare game in which Jefferson, receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson were all healthy. He cited "core philosophies" and "beliefs," said "we want to be aggressive," described the need to avoid "third-and-7" situations that are difficult for any offense and used a basketball analogy to make clear that he wanted to create an environment for Jefferson to dominate.
"Just because Michael Jordan was doubled or Kobe Bryant was doubled, it didn't mean that John Paxson always shot the ball," O'Connell said. "It meant that sometimes we were going to try to design a play to help Michael Jordan be Michael Jordan."
O'Connell went on to add "it's amazing to watch ... the amount of success we can have" and added: "Take away a couple of those turnovers, which are learning opportunities for all of us, [and] that could have been a game when we were in the 30s and 40s. You're not going to run away from people from always being conservative or always being aggressive. ... It's that balance of always trusting your players to go make plays, and they wouldn't be in this building if we didn't trust them."
Indeed, the Vikings had open receivers downfield all game in both of Mullens' starts, and it's only fair to note that his 714 passing yards during that period was the second-most of any quarterback. It's reasonable to imagine a world in which Cousins produced similar numbers, or better, without the turnovers.
All of which had Jefferson romanticizing his time with Cousins, who tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns (18) and ranked second in passing yards (2,331) at the time of his injury. Speaking this week, Jefferson said the Vikings miss his "knowledge of the game" and "awareness" and said "the rest of the world definitely realizes" his value after seeing the offense in his absence.
Cousins' contract is set to void in March, after the NFL deadline for issuing franchise tags, and he could be the best quarterback available on the free agent market if he gets that far. Both O'Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have indicated interest in pursuing a new deal, and while Jefferson stopped short of saying he would lobby them for Cousins' return, he did say:
"I feel like I really don't have to voice my opinion that much. You can just really look at the stats and look at the play especially before he went down this year. But I definitely will always give that extra word or two for Kirko."
Cousins is not the only person on the planet that can run O'Connell's offense at a high level. And it's not unreasonable to think that with an entire offseason to plan, O'Connell could more thoroughly build around whomever his 2024 starter will be. But absent any shift in core philosophy, the second half of the Vikings' season has narrowed the pool of candidates who are likely to be successful. It'll need to be Cousins, or someone who can similarly throw precision downfield passes with accuracy, timing -- and a conscience.