RENTON, Wash. -- Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald faced an unusual conundrum this week as he game-planned for Sunday's rematch with the San Francisco 49ers.
How much stock should he put into the film of the two teams' first meeting given how much both rosters have changed since Seattle's Thursday night loss at Lumen Field last month?
"You definitely take into account," Macdonald said. "You can't take it play-by-play verbatim, but that's the secret question: 'What matters? What doesn't? How have you evolved? How do you take the next step? How do you answer certain things?'
"Comes down to how well we play, frankly."
Consider that one more piece to a puzzle Seattle hasn't been able to solve for the past two-plus seasons.
From 2012 to 2021, the Seahawks dominated their division rivals, winning 17 of 21 matchups over San Francisco, including playoffs. They won eight of 10 during Kyle Shanahan's first five seasons as the 49ers' head coach before the tables turned in 2022. Heading into Sunday's game at Levi's Stadium, Seattle has lost six straight meetings by a combined score of 184 to 96.
The latest was a 36-24 defeat in Week 6. The Seahawks got to within five points late in the fourth quarter before San Francisco pulled away, but they also benefitted from a missed call on what should have been a muffed punt that would have given the 49ers possession deep in Seattle territory.
The Seahawks couldn't end their losing streak to San Francisco that night despite the 49ers playing without star running back Christian McCaffrey, who has since returned.
The Seahawks' starting lineup will look considerably different in the rematch on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox), mostly for the better but in some cases for the worse.
The surprising decision to waive Tyrel Dodson earlier this week and replace him with rookie Tyrice Knight completes the in-season overhaul of their inside linebacker duo that began last month when they swapped out Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones IV in a trade with the Tennessee Titans.
Pro Bowl cornerback Riq Woolen is healthy after not playing in the first meeting, as is rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, Seattle's 2024 first-round pick. Rotational defensive lineman Roy Robertson-Harris had yet to be acquired from the Jacksonville Jaguars by that first meeting with the 49ers while Josh Jobe had yet to overtake the third cornerback job from Tre Brown, who struggled badly against the 49ers.
Tyler Fulghum explains why there's only one team he trusts to lay the points with when the Seahawks face the 49ers.
Seattle's embattled offensive line took another hit this week with center Connor Williams abruptly retiring, which will press Olu Oluwatimi into the starting lineup. But the revolving door at right tackle might soon be over with Abraham Lucas set to make his season debut, a potentially big boost given that he was arguably their top blocker as a rookie in 2022.
The Seahawks will be without No. 1 tight end Noah Fant, who had a season-high 63 receiving yards in the first 49ers meeting, as well as backup Brady Russell.
And unlike last time, they'll have to face McCaffrey, who returned last week from his Achilles tendonitis. The All-Pro running back has averaged 141.5 scrimmage yards with four total touchdowns in four games against Seattle since his 2022 trade to San Francisco.
"He's one of those jack-of-all trades," said Jones, who takes over for Dodson as Seattle's defensive signal-caller. "He can do it all. You can line him up at receiver; he can go out there and make his plays there. You give him the ball in the backfield, and he has a crease, he can make you pay. We've got a great task ahead of us this week with their team and what they have, but I know what we have, so I'm excited."
Even without their best offensive player, the 49ers racked up 228 rushing yards and a 6.9-yard average on Seattle in Week 6, with 76 yards coming on a late run by third-stringer Isaac Guerendo that iced the game. That was one of six rushes of 25-plus yards the Seahawks have allowed, one reason they've swapped out both inside linebackers.
Knight, a fourth-round pick, will return to the starting lineup after replacing an injured Baker twice earlier in the season. He also banked a good chunk of first-team reps over the offseason while Baker and Dodson were rehabbing.
"Experience, especially early in your career, that learning curve really accelerates," Macdonald said. "If he hadn't played, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation to this point."
According to ESPN Analytics, the Seahawks have only a 6.2% chance to make the playoffs, which takes into account the fact that they have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule. After San Francisco, they play the first-place Arizona Cardinals twice in the span of three weeks. But their playoff hopes might be all but gone by then if they suffer another a seventh straight loss to the 49ers, which would drop Seattle to 0-3 in NFC West play.
"It's very personal, man," said quarterback Geno Smith, who's started five of the six losses to San Francisco since 2022. "When you think about division opponents, these games matter the most, especially with the 49ers. They've been at the top of our division, one of the best teams in the league for a while, and if we want to be that type of team that we say we are, we got to go through teams like this and I have no doubt in my mind the type of guys that we have, the type of preparation we're going to put in and really the way that we're going to step on that field.
"I know that I'm going to step on it with that chip on my shoulder, that edge that I always have and I know my guys are as well."