From Saurabh to Sindhu: Who's in, who's not (yet) for Tokyo, with six months to go

Saturday, January 23, marks six months to go for the Tokyo Olympic Games. So, here's a look at where India's athletes and Olympic hopefuls stand as the buildup to the Games enters its final stretch.

Shooting

Who has qualified?

India have won a record 15 quota places in shooting. They were won by - Deepak Kumar, Divyansh Singh Panwar (10m air rifle men); Aishwary Tomar, Sanjeev Rajput (50m rifle 3 positions men); Saurabh Chaudhary, Abhishek Verma (10m air pistol men); Angad Bajwa, Mairaj Khan (Skeet men); Anjum Moudgil, Apurvi Chandela (10m air rifle women); Tejaswini Sawant (50m rifle 3 positions women); Manu Bhaker, Yashaswini Deswal (10m air pistol women); Chinki Yadav, Rahi Sarnobat (25m pistol women). The national federation has the freedom to swap a few quota places around depending on form and other factors.

Big names yet to qualify

Elavenil Valarivan (World No. 1, 10m air rifle women) and Anish Bhanwala (World No. 12, 25m rapid-fire pistol men). The two youngsters (Valarivan is 21, Bhanwala 18) still have a chance to qualify for Tokyo, after the ISSF announced that the remaining quota places would be allocated based on the ranking list as of March 31, 2020, and points earned at one ISSF World Cup. The new deadline for qualification is June 6, 2021.

Events to watch out for

There are two Shotgun World Cups (Egypt in February, Italy in May) and one Rifle/Pistol/Shotgun World Cup (India in March) before the qualification period expires.

Our take

Shooters are probably the brightest prospects for Tokyo; they won 21 golds in four World Cups in 2019 and were peaking on schedule. But 10 months of no competition will certainly have its effects, as was seen at last week's national shooting trials, their first event since lockdown. The two most high-profile shooters, Bhaker and Chaudhary, had mixed results. Saurabh won Trial 1 with an unofficial world record 246.9. In Trial 2, he finished sixth with 160.1. Manu won her Trial 1 with 239.3 and was third in Trial 2 with 220.4.

They should hit their groove again as the competitions increase, even if within the team. The next few weeks will be crucial, especially the New Delhi World Cup in March. The shooters' performances there will provide a much more accurate picture of just how ready the team is for Tokyo 2021.

Badminton

Who has qualified?

No one yet. The Olympic qualification period is from April 29, 2019, and April 25, 2021, and spots for the Olympics will be allocated on the basis of the Badminton World Federation (BWF) rankings on April 29, 2021.

Big names yet to qualify

Everyone - PV Sindhu, Saina Nehwal, Kidambi Srikanth, B Sai Praneeth, Ashwini Ponnappa, Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty. 

Each nation can enter a maximum of two entries in any of the events. Players ranked in the top 16 in singles and top 8 in doubles qualify automatically. The singles events will comprise 38 men and 38 women, while the doubles events will have 16 pairs each in the men's, women's and mixed category.

Events to watch out for

All England Open Badminton Championships (March 17-21) and Malaysia Open (March 31 - April 4).

Our take

India won a medal in badminton at each of the last two Olympics, and their current contingent will aim to win multiple medals at the Olympics for the first time. PV Sindhu is the reigning World Champion and reigning Olympic silver medallist. She's always a contender at the biggest events and her big-match temperament marks her out as one of India's best medal hopes across all sports.

Men's doubles pair Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty are a fixture in the world top 10 and their big-hitting ability and exuberance makes them a strong bet to be involved in the latter stages of the Olympics. As many as eight Indian men are currently ranked in the top 50 in the singles rankings. It's also worth looking out for Lakshya Sen, who has improved rapidly and bolted up the world rankings over the previous two years.

Boxing

Who has qualified?

Nine Indian boxers have qualified so far for the Olympics -- already equal to the previous best qualification cycle (2012). There could be more, since there is another qualification event yet to be held. The boxers who have qualified are -- Mary Kom (women's 51kg), Simranjit Kaur (women's 60kg), Lovlina Borgohain (women's 69kg), Pooja Rani (women's 75kg), Amit Panghal (men's 52kg), Manish Kaushik (men's 63kg), Vikas Krishan (men's 69kg), Ashish Kumar (men's 75kg) and Satish Kumar (men's 91kg+).

Big names yet to qualify

The only disappointment for India so far would be the fact that no boxers have qualified in the men's and women's featherweight (57kg division). Gaurav Solanki and Kavinder Bisht are the biggest names missing.

Events to watch out for

The team is likely to first compete in the Strandja Cup in Bulgaria from February 21-28, followed by a tournament in Hungary. These will act as a warm up for the World Qualifiers in Paris in June.

Our take

India have a good chance of at least another two qualifiers in the men's and women's 57kg divisions at the World Qualifiers. There are six Olympic qualification spots in those two weight divisions at the World Qualifiers and the tournament itself will be easier since it only features those who haven't made the cut in any of the continental qualifiers so far. The boxers in the men's 81kg and 91kg divisions will likely find it tougher, since with only four qualification spots in their weight class, they will have to finish on the podium to book their ticket to Tokyo.

Wrestling

Who has qualified?

Four Indian wrestlers have qualified so far for the Olympics - Ravi Dahiya (men's 57kg freestyle), Bajrang Punia (men's 65kg freestyle), Deepak Punia (men's 74kg freestyle) and Vinesh Phogat (women's 53kg freestyle). They all qualified from the 2019 World Championships. Of the multiple pathways to qualify, the Worlds are invariably the hardest since they are the first qualification tournaments.

Big names yet to qualify

Undoubtedly, Sakshi Malik, the bronze-medal winner from Rio. No one has qualified in the men's 74kg division, either. In fact, India's representative in that division is yet to be decided with two-time Olympic medallist Sushil Kumar and 2015 World medallist Narsingh Yadav both still contending for a place in the squad.

Events to watch out for

There are two qualifiers left -- the Asian Olympic Qualifiers (April 9-11) in Kazakhstan and the World Olympic Qualifiers (May 6-9) in Bulgaria These two events are critical for the athletes yet to qualify. However, owing to a lack of competition over the past year, Indian wrestlers -- including those who have already qualified -- will be looking forward to competing in lower-profile events over the next few months. The Rome Ranking series, usually the first competition of the year, in March will be the first international tournament for Indian wrestlers this season. That will be followed by the Asian Championships in April, just days before the Asian qualifiers.

Our take

There are still another 14 weight categories in which an Indian wrestler can qualify for the Olympics. The fact that the competition at the Asian qualifiers and subsequently the world qualifiers gets easier (since countries that have already qualified in a particular weight division, can't compete at another qualifier) means it's likely that India will have their best ever Olympics from a qualification perspective (previously eight, at Rio).

What remains to be seen is just how much of ring rust Indian wrestlers will be carrying as they enter this competition. At the Individual World Cup in December last year - the first competition for the Indian wrestling teams since the Asian Championships, India won just a solitary medal while the overall win-loss record was a dismal 15-28, including 3-3 for the medal winners of the 2019 World Championships. However, with competitions getting underway including with the wrestling nationals beginning on Saturday, Indian wrestlers will finally begin to get some much-needed practice.

Tennis

Who has qualified?

No one yet. Qualification will be on the basis of the ATP and WTA singles and doubles rankings as of June 7, 2021.

Big names yet to qualify

Rohan Bopanna, Sania Mirza, Leander Paes, Divij Sharan, Ankita Raina, Prajnesh Gunneswaran and Sumit Nagal.

For singles, the top 56 in the world will qualify. However, as a country can have a maximum of four players in the draw, it is possible for players ranked lower than 56 and from countries with fewer than four already-qualified players to make it. In the men's and women's doubles, 32 teams qualify. Up to 10 places are reserved for players in the top 10, who can pick a partner from the top 300. Teams with the best combined rankings take the remaining spots. Mixed doubles is played by those already qualified for singles or doubles. There are 16 teams - the top 15 combined-ranking duos and one from the host nation.

Events to watch out for

Australian Open (February 8-21), Miami Open (March 24-April 4), Madrid Open (May 2-9), Rome Masters (May 9-16), French Open (May 23-June 6).

Our take

It's going to be difficult to have an Indian in the singles draws. World No. 128 Gunneswaran is the highest-ranked male, with Nagal nine places below him. Raina is the top-ranked woman, at 180. That said, there are several scheduled tournaments for these players to improve their chances. Nagal can start at the Australian Open, having received a wild card into the main draw.

Bopanna, ranked 38, and Sharan, ranked 64, are India's best bet of qualifying in the men's doubles. Paes has expressed a desire to play in a record eighth Olympics, but his ranking of 129 makes qualification difficult.

Sania and Raina could qualify in the women's doubles. Sania's protected World No. 9 ranking should allow her to pick a partner of her choice. However, her ranking remains protected till this month, a year since her return, so she will need to play in events to maintain her ranking -- and to get some match practice.

Sania and Bopanna are India's best bet in the mixed doubles. The duo lost the bronze-medal match at Rio in 2016.

Track and Field

Who has qualified?

Five individuals and one team so far -- Neeraj Chopra (men's javelin throw), Shivpal Singh (men's javelin throw), KT Irfan (men's 20 km race walking), Bhawna Jat (women's 20 km race walking), Avinash Sable (men's 3000m steeplechase) and 4x400m mixed relay team.

Big names yet to qualify

Hima Das (200m), Dutee Chand (100m), Tejinder Pal Singh Toor (shot put), M Sreeshankar (long jump), 4x100m and 4x400m women's relay teams. Athletes can qualify by one of two methods: by achieving event entry standard within qualification period or by virtue of IAAF world ranking position at the end of the qualification period. The deadline for Olympic qualification is June 29, 2021.

Events to watch out for

India's athletics season will get underway with the National Open Racewalking Championship in Ranchi on February 13. It will be followed by three Indian Grand Prix series events on February 18, 25 and March 5 and the Federation Cup (Mar 15-19) in Patiala. All five are Olympic qualifying competitions. Among international events, the World Relay Championship in Poland on May 1-2 will offer up a chance for Indian teams to qualify.

Our take

Track and field athletes have had an unusually long wait for events to gauge form. India's chief national coach Radhakrishnan Nair spoke of the prospect of teaming up Dutee and Hima for the 4x100 women's relay event. If it happens, it will be the first time that the sprint stars will feature alongside each other in a competitive event. In their respective individual events, Hima has switched from the 400m to 200m and will need to clock 22.80s to qualify while Dutee has a rather steep ask from her personal best of 11.22 to the qualifying mark of 11.15. Annu Rani, in women's javelin throw, has an opportunity to qualify through her world ranking (currently No. 12) and some more walkers too could be expected to find berths.

Table Tennis

Who has qualified?

No one yet.

Big names yet to qualify

All -- Achanta Sharath Kamal, G Sathiyan and Manika Batra. India missed out on an opportunity to earn an Olympic spot via the team event at the world qualifiers in Portugal in January last year. Qualification in the team event would have fetched two automatic spots in the singles event as well.

Events to watch out for

Two qualifying events will take place in March in Doha - Asian Olympic Qualifier (March 13-15) and World Olympic Qualifier (March 16-19).

Our take

Ranked 32 and 37 in the world respectively, Sharath and Sathiyan are expected to qualify at the Asian event. Sathiyan has had a string of matches in two top international leagues in Japan and Poland while waiting for ITTF competitions to resume which should do him good. In the mixed doubles, Sharath and Manika too will be fancying Olympic spots as a pair. At 38, Sharath, who plays the role of senior player-mentor for the Indian team, will be making his final Olympic appearance at the Tokyo Games. Before the top players leave for their international swing, TTFI will be hosting its first major domestic competition -- the TT nationals -- between February 15-23, which will allow players to shake off some rust.