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Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Round 14 line-ups, predictions, odds

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Waratahs playing group never regrouped after 2023 (1:43)

The ESPN Scrum Reset crew discuss the Waratahs' wretched season, and why they were doomed to fail in 2024. (1:43)

With two rounds to go we finally have an idea of who'll reach the top eight and who'll fail to make the playoffs.

Sinking to their 10th loss of the season, the Waratahs' playoff hopes are caput with the 12-time champion Crusaders not far behind them, meanwhile, there's still plenty of shuffling that can take place across the top eight.

Check out all the team lists, key ins and outs, odds and our tips below.

Friday, May 24

Chiefs vs.

Hurricanes

FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton, 5:05pm [AEST]

Chiefs: Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa, Anton Lienert-Brown, Quinn Tupaea, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Damian McKenzie, Cortez Ratima; Luke Jacobson (c), Kaylum Boshier, Simon Parker, Tupou Vaa'i, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, George Dyer, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Aidan Ross

Replacements: Tyrone Thompson, Jared Proffit, Sione Ahio, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Wallace Sititi, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Josh Ioane, Rameka Poihipi

Hurricanes: Ruben Love, Josh Moorby, Billy Proctor, Jordie Barrett (c), Kini Naholo, Brett Cameron, TJ Perenara; Brayden Iose, Peter Lakai, Devan Flanders, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Justin Sangster, Pasilio Tosi, Raymond Tuputupu, Xavier Numia

Replacements: James O'Reilly, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Tevita Mafileo, Caleb Delany, Te Kamaka Howden, Richard Judd, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Salesi Rayasi

Odds [tab.com.au]: Chiefs $1.68, -2.5 $1.90; Hurricanes $2.15, +2.5 $1.90

Prediction: The clear game of the weekend, this clash has deep ramifications for the make-up of the top four. If the Hurricanes win, they will have all but locked up a top-two seeding for the playoffs, while victory for the Chiefs will keep them in the hunt for the same prize. The Chiefs were not at their best last week in Melbourne, needing a late penalty to see off the Rebels, but coach Clayton McMillan has stuck with the same starting side and made only three changes to his bench. The Hurricanes also were not at their best against Moana, but still did enough to come away with a comfortable win. The Canes are without some frontline stars this week, too, with skipper Brad Shields, prop Tyrel Lomax and Du'Plessis Kirifi all ruled out, but that allows standout Peter Lakai to return to the run-on side after a slight breather off the bench last week. Look for this one to go deep into the closing minutes, but there might just be a little too much power through the Chiefs' tight five for the Canes to pick up a road win here.

Tip: Chiefs by 3

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Brumbies vs.

Melbourne Rebels

GIO Stadium, Canberra, 7:35pm [AEST]

Brumbies: Tom Wright, Andy Muirhead, Len Ikitau, Tamati Tua, Corey Toole, Noah Lolesio, Ryan Lonergan; Rob Valetini, Jahrome Brown, Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Darcy Swain, Allan Alaalatoa, Billy Pollard, James Slipper

Replacements: Liam Bowron, Rhys van Nek, Sosefo Kautai, Cadeyrn Neville, Luke Reimer, Harrison Goddard, Jack Debreczeni, Ollie Sapsford

Rebels: Andrew Kellaway, Glen Vaihu, Filipo Daugunu, Nick Jooste, Darby Lancaster, Jake Strachan, Ryan Louwrens; Vaiolini Ekuasi, Brad Wilkin, Rob Leota, Josh Canham, Angelo Smith, Sam Talakai, Jordan Uelese, Isaac Kailea

Replacements: Ethan Dobbins, Matt Gibbon, Taniela Tupou, Luke Callan, Maciu Nabolakasi, Tuaiana Taii Tualima, James Tuttle, Mason Gordon

Odds: [tab.com.au] Brumbies $1.12, -15.5 $1.90; Rebels $6, +15.5 $1.90

Verdict: You could not have scripted a more insane finish than the one the Brumbies endured last week against the Crusaders. Fortunately they were on the right side of a key decision and their hopes of a top-two finish remain in tact. But they are likely to need wins over the next two weeks, starting with this visit from the Rebels on Friday night. There is one key inclusion for the two-time champions, too, with winger Corey Toole returning from injury; hooker Billy Pollard is also back, though whether that means an improved scrum showing is unlikely. The Rebels, meanwhile, have been dealt a key injury blow out of last week's heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs, with No. 10 Carter Gordon; Melbourne however are boosted by the addition of Andrew Kellaway, while Taniela Tupou will come off the bench. The Brumbies were far too strong for the Rebels in Melbourne in Round 1 this year, but Kevin Foote's outfit is vastly improved from there and likely headed for a maiden finals series berth proper. Still, the Brumbies should be too strong at home here.

Tip: Brumbies by 13

Saturday, May 25

Moana Pasifika vs.

NSW Waratahs

Go Media Stadium, Auckland, 2:35pm [AEST]

Moana: Danny Toala, Fine Inisi, Pepesana Patafilo, Julian Savea, Neria Fomai, William Havili, Aisea Halo; Lotu Inisi, Sione Havili Talitui, Jacob Norris, Allan Craig, Tom Savage, Sione Mafileo, Samiuela Moli, Abraham Pole.

Replacements: Tomasi Maka, Tevita Langi, Sekope Kepu, Ola Tauelangi, Alamanda Motuga, Siaosi Nginingini, Christian Lealiifano, Jenry Taefu

Waratahs: Mark Nawaqanitawase, Izaia Perese, Joey Walton, Lalakai Foketi, Dylan Pietsch, Tane Edmed, Jake Gordon; Langi Gleeson, Charlie Gamble, Ned Hanigan, Hugh Sinclair, Jed Holloway, Brad Amituanai, Jay Fonokalafi, Harry Lloyd

Replacements: Ben Sugars, Lewis Ponini, Mike Scott, Miles Amatosero, Fergus Lee-Warner, Jack Grant, Jack Bowen, Vuate Karawelevu

Odds: [tab.com.au] Pasifika $1.80, -1.5 $1.90; Waratahs $2, +2.5 $1.90

Verdict: It's taken until Round 14, but it will officially be curtains for the loser of this game in Auckland on Saturday afternoon. Neither Moana or the Waratahs deserve to play finals football, but the winner here will still have a mathematical chance of extending their season beyond next week. NSW on Monday finally announced that coach Darren Coleman would not be getting a contract extension, with the search now underway for his replacement. The Waratahs' wretched run with injury has continued with Lachie Swinton missing this week, but there is a boost in the backline with Izaia Perese added to the right wing. Moana are vastly improved from last season and gave the Canes a good run for 60 minutes last week. They also defeated the Waratahs in Sydney last year, so are deserved favourites here. But with Coleman's future finally determined, perhaps NSW can play with a freedom that has been missing the past few weeks?

Tip: Waratahs by 3.

Crusaders vs.

Blues

Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch, 5:05pm [AEST]

Crusaders: Johnny McNicholl, Chay Fihaki, Levi Aumua, David Havili, Sevu Reece, Fergus Burke, Noah Hotham; Christian Lio-Willie, Ethan Blackadder, Cullen Grace, Quinten Strange, Antonio Shalfoon, Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor (c), Joe Moody

Replacements: George Bell, George Bower, Tamaiti Williams, Jamie Hannah, Tom Christie, Mitchell Drummond, Taha Kemara, Dallas McLeod.

Blues: Stephen Perofeta, Mark Tele'a, Rieko Ioane, Corey Evans, AJ Lam, Harry Plummer, Taufa Funaki; Hoskins Sotutu, Adrian Choat, Akira Ioane, Sam Darry, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Angus Ta'avao, Kurt Eklund, Ofa Tu'ungafasi

Replacements: Ricky Riccitelli, Joshua Fusitu'a, PJ Sheck, Josh Beehre, Cameron Suafoa, Sam Nock, Cole Forbes, Caleb Tangitau

Odds: [tab.com.au] Crusaders $2.90, +7.5 $1.90; Blues $1.40, -7.5 $1.95

Verdict: It has been quite the week in Christchurch, as the walls close in around under-fire coach Rob Penney. Chief executive Colin Mansbridge was forced to apologise on Penney's behalf after the coach was heard making an obscene remark about a journalist following a tense media conference. On the field the Crusaders continue to struggle, but just like Moana and NSW they remain a mathematical chance of playing finals football. But it will take something special to derail the in-form Blues, who powered away from the Highlanders last week. Coach Vern Cotter has recalled Stephen Perofeta to the starting side this week as well, with the playmaker wearing the No. 15 jersey; All Blacks centre Rieko Ioane also returns after a two-week break with concussion, while skipper Patrick Tuipulotu is back from a rest. The Crusaders will be boosted by the return of Ethan Blackadder and are always a tough proposition at home, but it's hard to see them playing well enough for long enough to upset the now competition favourite Blues.

Tip: Blues by 7.

Queensland Reds vs.

Western Force

Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 7:35pm [AEST]

Reds: Jock Campbell, Tim Ryan, Josh Flook, Hunter Paisami, Mac Grealy, Tom Lynagh, Tate McDermoot; John Bryant, Fraser McReight, Liam Wright, Ryan Smith, Seru Uru, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Matt Faessler, Alex Hodgman

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Sef Fa'agase, Zane Nonggorr, Connor Vest, Joe Brial, Kalani Thomas, James O'Connor, Taj Annan

Force: Kurtley Beale, George Poolman, Bayley Kuenzle, Hamish Stewart, Ronan Leahy, Ben Donaldson, Nic White; Reed Prinsep, Carlo Tizzano, Will Harris, Izack Rodda, Jeremy Williams, Santiago Medrano, Tom Horton, Harry Hoopert

Replacements: Feleti Kaitu'u, Marley Pearce, Tiaan Tauakipulu, Lopeti Faifua, Michael Wells, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Sam Spink, Chase Tiatia

Odds: [tab.com.au] Reds $1.17, -12.5 $1.85; Force $4.80, +12.5 $1.95

Verdict: The Force continue to be the big improvers late in the season and head to Brisbane with their hopes of finals football still very much alive. They do however face an imposing run in, with the Brumbies to follow in Perth next week. But there is no doubt that they are starting to find their rhythm under coach Simon Cron, and are getting contributions right across the board. Cron has also handed exciting Australian Under 20s winger Rohan Leahy a Super Rugby debut this week, the starting side otherwise unchanged from the team that beat the Waratahs. The Reds on the other hand will be kicking themselves after a limp display in Suva against the Drua. Les Kiss' side had more than enough ball to win that clash, but were let down by indiscipline and their execution. With Suliasi Vunivalu's one-game ban for tripping, Kiss has returned breakout winger Tim Ryan to the starting side while Alex Hodgman will add starch to the scrum at loosehead prop. While the Force are trending upwards, the next step on their journey is a win away from home. They should have achieved that in Dunedin a few weeks ago, and get another great chance here. Still, the Reds should be too strong at home as they look to reassert some momentum for what will be a tough quarterfinal in two weeks' time.

Tip: Reds by 10.

Sunday, May 26

Highlanders vs.

Fijian Drua

Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, 12:05pm [AEST]

Highlanders: Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Jake Te Hiwi, Sam Gilbert, Jona Nareki, Ajay Faleafaga, Folau Fakatava; Billy Harmon (co-captain), Sean Withy, Oliver Haig, Fabian Holland, Mitch Dunshea, Jermaine Ainsley, Henry Bell, Ethan de Groot

Replacements: Jack Taylor, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Saula Ma'u, Max Hicks, Nikora Broughton, James Arscott, Matt Whaanga, Connor Garden-Bachop

Drua: Jone Koroiduadua, Ilaisa Droasese, Selestino Ravutaumada, Iosefo Masi, Kemu Valetini, Epeli Momo, Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, Simione Kuruvoli; Elia Canakaivata, Kitione Salawa, Etonia Waqa, Isoa Nasilasila, Mesake Vocevoce, Mesake Doge, Tevita Ikanivere, Jone Koroiduadua

Replacements: Zuriel Togiatama, Emosi Tuqiri, Samu Tawake, Leone Rotuisolia, Vilive Miramira, Peni Matawalu, Caleb Muntz, Taniela Rakuro

Odds: [tab.com.au] Highlanders $1.34, -8.5 $1.90; Drua $3.20, +8.5 $1.90

Verdict: It's a rare Sunday afternoon fixture to wind up Round 14, this Highlanders-Drua clash having big ramifications for the final make-up of the top eight. The Highlanders can wrap up a spot in the playoffs with a win, while the Drua sit two points behind them on the table and are slightly more vulnerable. But the hosts won't want to have to beat the Canes next week to guarantee their place in the eight; the Drua to have the benefit of a home clash with the Rebels to come. As has been the case throughout their short history, the Drua have again struggled on the road this season. They did however worry the Brumbies in Canberra a few weeks back and should be comfortable under the roof in Dunedin. But the Highlanders have a little more quality up front and should they not get sucked in to playing a Fijian style of game, the hosts can start planning for finals footy.

Tip: Highlanders by 12.