Guess what: We have all got a fever. And the only prescription is more football. Enter the UFL, baby! Usually, Daniel Dopp is diving into NFL lines, player props and over and unders with Liz Loza in their weekly Props that Pop column. She's getting a well-deserved break from him, but you should still follow along with everything she does at LizLoza_FF on X.
In this series, Dopp and ESPN Stats & Information researcher Matt Willis will break down everything there is to know about betting on the UFL.
Now, we understand that this is a new league, and we don't have a ton of info on a lot of these teams, players, coaches and schemes right now. But ... we do have Willis, and if you keep reading, you'll soon find out he has a boatload of knowledge that will prove useful for us as we look to make a couple smart bets.
Dopp and Willis will be here every single Friday to preview the UFL's weekly slate all season long!
Dopp: Matt, how've you been doing since football season ended?
Willis: It has been 47 days since the last time we've had some competitive football. I've tried everything, reading NFL mock drafts, playing Madden, going to Disney World (I've got two girls under 4 years old). The only cure: competitive spring football!
Last year, we had the XFL and the USFL. Each league had eight teams and this year the two spring football leagues have merged together to form the eight-team United Football League (UFL). Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is still involved, so that's cool. The teams have some carryover in terms of roster makeup, but this league is essentially starting fresh, and that gives us a chance to get ahead of the market and try to predict some trends.
Dopp: The season is so close I can legit smell what The Rock's been cooking! Let's start with the contending champions from each league, as the Arlington Renegades won the 2023 XFL championship, with a 4-6 record, and the Birmingham Stallions took home the USFL championship with an 8-2 regular-season record. It seems kind of obvious looking at their records, but is there one team you're leaning towards in the futures market?
Willis: It's easy and straightforward to pick the two-time defending USFL champions as my favorite future for the 2024 UFL season, so that's exactly what I'm doing. I don't get bonus points for degree of difficulty. The Stallions won it all in 2022 with J'Mar Smith at QB, and when he got hurt in 2023, they won it all with Alex McGough at QB. McGough is getting a chance with the Packers in 2024, and Smith's numbers weren't eye-popping in 2022, so the two-time champs probably had the biggest offseason pickup in the league, getting Ole Miss alum and former NFL third-round pick Matt Corral to start at QB. They also picked up Amari Rodgers, who played 35 NFL games from 2021 to '23, and look to have improved offensively around a team that won its final seven games after a 3-2 start.
Dopp: Wait a minute, I know both of those names! Even though Matt Corral didn't work out for the Carolina Panthers, he was a Day 2 pick and there's definitely reason to believe that he can be one the best QBs in the UFL this year. By the way, Amari Rodgers was also a third-round draft pick, so maybe we'll have a nice little former NFL connection between the two. Given the Stallions' recent history as back-to-back USFL champions and the addition of some new talent, it all really lends to Birmingham being lead dog here to start the season.
Willis: Birmingham is currently a +300 favorite to win the 2024 UFL title at ESPN BET, and I don't think you are going to be able to see their odds that short again this season. The Stallions are the class of the USFL conference, and things will likely be much more competitive in the XFL conference, so I foresee them reaching the title game. The only concern I have is that the championship game will be in St. Louis and a de facto home game for the St. Louis Battlehawks if they can get there, but that's a problem for another week.
Dopp: Okay, let's pivot and talk about Week 1. Four games. Eight teams. A whole lot of things are unknown unless you were deep into these two leagues last year. Matt, are you leaning one way or the other in this D.C. Defenders vs. San Antonio Brahmas matchup this weekend?
Willis: For Week 1, I'm going to fade the Defenders and take the Brahmas (+6) at home. D.C. was the class of the XFL last season, going 9-1, but went down in the title game to the Arlington Renegades largely because of Jordan Ta'amu's three interceptions.
Dopp: Whoa! Fading a 9-1 Defenders team that went to the championship game last year? I get that Ta'amu had a rough go of it, but that can't be the only reason you're telling me to take the points with the Brahmas.
Willis: Yeah, we're not getting that same Defenders team, at least to start the season. 2023 XFL leading rusher Abram Smith is out for the season with a torn ACL. D.C. won't return their three leading receivers from last season. And although Ta'amu, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year is back, the team used a dual-QB system at times, and the second part of that equation, D'Eriq King, will not return.
In the end, the Defenders might reset and fit all their pieces back together, but I can see a slow start with so much offensive turnover. The Brahmas weren't great in 2023, but they've overhauled their roster, especially at QB, and brought Wade Phillips in as head coach. Give me San Antonio with the points.
Dopp: This is why you're a rockstar, Willis. Great insight to the changes on the Defenders' roster and what it could mean for this season. I'm with you on taking the Brahmas (+6) at home. Also, I still don't know what a Brahma is.
I'm going to pick one more game from this slate, even though it's going to hurt my heart. My new team, the Michigan Panthers, are taking on the St. Louis Battlehawks at Ford Field on Saturday. As much as I want to bet on my new Michigan team, the Battlehawks look to have a much better roster. I know the Panthers have the Nacua brothers, and that's fun and exciting, but the Battlehawks have former college standout and NFL draft pick AJ McCarron under center as well as former New York Giants RB Wayne Gallman and All-XFL WR Hakeem Butler. St. Louis is a 6.5-point favorite and it's pretty easy to understand why. I'm comfortable taking that number, but I'd love to hear your thoughts, Matt, for the final pick of our first column together. Are you leaning in one direction over another?
Willis: Yeah, I'm right behind you with the Battlehawks and am poised to hoist a 245-cup long beer snake in their honor. In addition to McCarron, Gallman and Butler, they're also bringing back WR Darrius Shepherd, who caught 73% of his 66 targets last season with six touchdowns. But they also added two members of the All-XFL defensive team in Pita Taumoepenu (7.5 sacks) and Austin Faoliu. The Battlehawks are a great team that got even better ahead of this season.
Dopp: I'm pumped that we'll have football again! It'll take awhile to get into the swing of things but I couldn't be more excited to write this column with you, Willis!
If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today will bring fans the top moments from the weekend, with game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App, in most cases following the last game of the weekend.
Follow Dopp and Willis on X @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.