With the shocking elimination of defending champions San Miguel, there will be a new title holder as the kings of the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup. This sets the stage for an unpredictable playoff battle. Powerhouses like Ginebra and TNT aim to claim more glory, while upstart teams such as Converge and NorthPort hope to break through and capture their first championship.
Let's look at how each series could unfold in the quarterfinals.
No. 1 NorthPort Batang Pier vs. No. 8 Magnolia Hotshots
This will be a clash of styles pitting NorthPort's high-paced, efficient offense against Magnolia's methodical, stifling defense. For NorthPort, it's all about efficiency, as they lead the league in transition play and boast an ultra-efficient offense, highlighted by their league-best 60.6 true shooting percentage. In contrast, Magnolia excels in the half-court game, where they thrive by disrupting the flow of opposing offenses.
Their ability to slow down the pace and control the tempo presents a challenge for NorthPort, as Magnolia holds the second-best defense in the league, allowing just 94.8 points per game.
X-factor for NorthPort: Generating free throws
In their previous encounter during the eliminations, NorthPort capitalized on free-throw opportunities, going to the line 42 times -- a key aspect of their offensive game this conference. If they can replicate this approach against Magnolia, drawing fouls and getting to the line frequently, they can force the defense to become undisciplined and create easier scoring opportunities, which could yield similar results.
A big part of NorthPort's success in this area is Arvin Tolentino, whose ability to draw fouls makes him a tough player to guard. Defenders have to account for his 33.3% shooting from beyond the arc, his efficient 57.1% inside the paint, and his ability to get to the free-throw line, where he converts at an impressive 80.3%. While this style of play may slow down the tempo, the ability to generate free throws and get easy points on the board could be pivotal in NorthPort's ability to dictate the game and keep Magnolia's defense on edge.
X-factor for Magnolia: Bench production in this winning streak
Magnolia has settled into a starting lineup that has brought a nice balance to their offense, ensuring there is always a threat on the floor, as evidenced by their average of 47.5 points per game off the bench. In the frontcourt, import Ricardo Ratliffe and Ian Sangalang focus on scoring in the paint. When they're off the floor, Zav Lucero, a versatile forward, steps in and provides dynamic scoring presence with his ability to score in multiple ways. Additionally, when veteran playmaker Mark Barocca heads to the bench, rookie Jerom Lastimosa brings a different energy, adding a fresh scoring dimension to the offense.
These young talents not only offer a spark from Magnolia's second unit but also complement veteran players, particularly Calvin Abueva, who has seemed to thrive in his new reserve role, bringing toughness and hustle. The bench also provides some shooting with Rome Dela Rosa and the returning Paul Lee, ensuring that Magnolia has the depth to compete on all fronts. With this balanced offensive attack and diverse scoring options, Magnolia's bench could prove crucial in maintaining momentum and keeping their opponents off-balance.
Prediction: NorthPort in 2. Magnolia will provide some challenge, but will ultimately be overwhelmed by NorthPort's offense.
No. 2 TNT Tropang Giga vs. No. 7 Hong Kong Eastern
This matchup presents an intriguing battle between two teams with similar strengths, both capable of excelling on defense and perimeter shooting. Defensively, Hong Kong Eastern and TNT are among the best in the league, with Eastern allowing the second-fewest points per game (95.9) and TNT close behind at third (96.3). On offense, both squads lean heavily on their perimeter game, with TNT leading all teams in three-point scoring at 47.2 points per game, while Eastern ranks third with 39.4. With their defensive discipline and reliance on outside shooting, this duel is shaping up to be a test of execution on both ends of the floor.
X-factor for Eastern: Can Hayden Blankley return to old form?
During his first stint in the PBA with the Bay Area Dragons, Hayden Blankley established himself as one of the league's premier modern shooters. However, that success came in a different context -- he played alongside a stronger supporting cast, allowing him to thrive in a well-structured system. Now with Eastern, his role has shifted, presenting challenges to both his efficiency and overall impact.
Despite posting solid averages of 15.6 points, seven rebounds, and three assists on a 55.4% true shooting percentage through 12 games this conference, his recent performances have shown a noticeable decline. Since the start of 2025, he has averaged just 12.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while struggling with a 47.5 TS%.
If Eastern hopes to secure back-to-back wins against a tough defensive team in TNT, they will need to surpass their current scoring average of 97.1 points per game. A resurgent Blankley could be the key to pushing them over the edge.
X-factor for TNT: Roger Pogoy's shooting
With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson serving as the focal point of TNT's offense, the team thrives on capitalizing off the attention he draws. Whether he's attacking the paint or forcing defensive rotations, TNT's shooters must consistently knock down open looks to maximize their offensive firepower. One key to that is Roger Pogoy, whose ability to stretch the floor provides a crucial scoring punch.
With defenses keyed in on Hollis-Jefferson and leading local scorer Calvin Oftana, Pogoy's presence adds another layer to TNT's perimeter attack. His averages of 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 36.5% shooting from beyond the arc highlight his role as a reliable floor-spacer. Even zooming into TNT's last three games, he has shot 47% on 5.7 attempts per game.
If he can maintain his efficiency and hit timely shots, he could be the difference-maker in TNT's quest for another deep playoff run.
Prediction: TNT in 1. The amount of games that Eastern has played in different tournaments is just too much.
No. 3 Converge FiberXers vs. No. 6 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
A duel between two young, independent teams promises to be one of the most exciting series in this conference's playoffs. Similar to the other matchups in their bracket, both teams thrive in transition. Among the playoff teams, Rain or Shine ranks second in fast-break points, averaging 14.4 per game, while Converge is right behind at 13.4, placing fourth in the league. Although their defensive numbers may seem inflated, it's a natural result of the fast-paced style they each play. Expect a high-energy, up-tempo series, where both teams will look to capitalize on every transition opportunity to gain an edge.
X-factor for Converge: Can their bigs dominate the paint?
At the start of the conference, head coach Yeng Guiao emphasized that bringing in Deon Thompson was a strategic move to prepare for defending June Mar Fajardo. However, with San Miguel now eliminated, that challenge shifts to Converge's frontcourt, where import Cheick Diallo, Justin Arana, and Justine Baltazar will have the chance to prove that Rain or Shine's defensive philosophy can be tested in a different way.
Converge has been dominant inside, averaging 47.7 points in the paint while converting 52.6% of their two-point attempts during the eliminations. Meanwhile, Rain or Shine allows opponents to shoot 50.7% inside the paint, making interior scoring a key battleground in this series. A major factor in Converge's paint success is Diallo, an efficient finisher who thrives in pick-and-roll situations. But what makes them even more dangerous is the additional presence of Baltazar and Arana, who combine to shoot 48.8% from two-point range. With multiple capable scorers in the paint, Converge will look to exploit this advantage and challenge Rain or Shine's interior defense.
X-factor for Rain or Shine: Adrian Nocum's coming out party in the playoffs
One of the biggest revelations for Rain or Shine this conference has been the steady rise of Adrian Nocum. The young swingman has taken a significant leap, posting career-best averages of 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. His athleticism and ability to finish at the rim have always been strengths, but what truly sets his breakout season apart is his improved perimeter game.
Nocum's growth as a shooter has been a key factor in his transformation, allowing him to stretch the floor and diversify his offensive repertoire. His ability to knock down jump shots, particularly from beyond the arc at a rate of 42.9%, has made him a more dynamic scorer, forcing defenses to account for him in multiple ways. This added layer to his game not only makes him a scoring threat but also opens up opportunities for his teammates.
Prediction: Converge in 3. Their depth is going to be key.
No. 4 Barangay Ginebra vs. No. 5 Meralco Bolts
It has almost become a playoff tradition to see a series between Ginebra and Meralco. Despite having faced off in the past two conferences, the rivalry remains as thrilling as ever.
However, as they enter this quarterfinals showdown, there's a noticeable shift in their respective performances. Ginebra has returned to their trademark style -- embracing a slower, more deliberate pace and leaning on their defensive identity. They are allowing the fewest points per game in the league, surrendering just 90.8 points on average. In contrast, Meralco has had a more potent offense this conference, averaging 100.1 points per game compared to Ginebra's 98.5. But the Bolts' defensive consistency has been a concern, as they've given up 101.4 points per game.
X-factor for Ginebra: Winning the math game
For this conference, Ginebra has not relied on the same high-volume shooting as they did in the previous Governors' Cup. However, when their offense clicks, it's still a potent weapon. This is reflected in their impressive 36.1% shooting from beyond the arc, which ranks fourth in the league, as well as their effective field goal percentage of 54.5%, the highest in the league. In contrast, Meralco has struggled with perimeter shooting, converting just 33.3% of their attempts -- an area where Ginebra can capitalize.
When looking at Ginebra's wins, excluding their lackluster performance against Eastern, their 3-point shooting jumps to 39.8%, showcasing their ability to hit from deep when they're firing on all cylinders. The team has several capable shooters in RJ Abarrientos (42.9%), import Justin Brownlee (38.5%), Stephen Holt (37.3%), and Maverick Ahanmisi (36.4%), all of whom can stretch the floor and punish defenses that sag off. With this shooting depth, Ginebra has the tools to be a lethal threat from beyond the arc, and if they can find their rhythm, it could be a key factor in their playoff success.
X-factor for Meralco: Bong Quinto needs to deliver secondary scoring The trio of Chris Newsome, Chris Banchero, and import Akil Mitchell is expected to lead Meralco's offense, as they account for half of the team's total scoring, combining for 50.1 points out of the team's 100.2 points per game. However, for Meralco to be truly successful in the playoffs, they will need their role players to step up, and this is where Bong Quinto's contributions become crucial. His ability to provide secondary scoring will be key to making Meralco's offense more dynamic and unpredictable.
The downside is that Quinto has been in a scoring slump over his last four games, averaging just 6.3 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on a subpar 31.6% true shooting percentage. For Meralco to make a deeper playoff run, Quinto needs to snap out of this slump and rediscover his scoring touch. His ability to stretch the floor, facilitate, and score in key moments could be the difference between a successful postseason run and an early exit.
Prediction: Ginebra in 2. They just have too many answers to solve the Meralco puzzle.