Adrian Peterson is going to be a free agent next week. If you're hoping your NFL team signs him, please be aware of the following:
There is absolutely no way your team can play Peterson on obvious passing downs. He was a willing but largely incapable pass-blocker during his career with the Minnesota Vikings. If he didn't figure it out in his first 10 NFL seasons, he isn't going to do it now.
Your team could get burned if it counts on Peterson to be its first- and second-down workhorse. He has missed at least 13 games in two of the past three seasons, in 2016 because of a knee injury and in 2014 for NFL discipline, and has played a 16-game season only once since 2012. Knee injuries have cost him games in at least three different seasons. Though one might not be connected to the other, a big-picture look at his career arc clearly shows a decrease in availability over time.
Though Peterson has proved to be a unique physical talent, most recently in 2012 when he ran for a career-high 2,097 yards a year after tearing his ACL, history is not on his side. He turns 32 in March, and in 47 seasons since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have only been 10 instances of a runner that old producing a 1,000-yard season.
Most NFL teams are phasing out Peterson's favored formations. Nearly 95 percent of his career carries have come when the quarterback was under center. He has only 132 attempts when the quarterback is in the shotgun, a formation most teams prefer now. Meanwhile, he has a notably better average per carry (4.91 yards) when running behind a lead blocker than he does when he was the single back in a formation (4.61 yards). (Research courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information's John McTigue.)
This recitation isn't meant to be a buzzkill or even to play the contrarian role. It's just a sober reminder about the limitations of a 31-year-old running back who has a history of knee injuries along with some on-field imperfections that have grown increasingly relevant. They are issues that any self-aware team must consider before signing him.
Make no mistake. Peterson has been one of the NFL's best offensive players over the past decade. When he was drafted in the first round in 2007, he was a breakaway runner in a bruiser's body. From 2007-13, he produced a league-high 62 rushes of at least 25 yards, 15 more than the next-best player over that span (Chris Johnson).
Since the start of the 2014 season, however, Peterson has only seven such runs. Part of that dip can be attributed to the games he has missed. Game mortality must also be considered. Peterson is not nearly the long-distance threat he once was.
With all that said, Peterson could still make a difference for the right team in the right situation. As we all learned after his ACL injury, his drive to surpass expectations might be unequaled in the NFL. But no team is going to trust a player to elevate upon all reasonable projections. No one should, at least. You would think that pursuing Peterson as a free agent would be a no-brainer, but clearly it's more complicated than that.