NFL picks and best bets for Week 10: Seahawks, Raiders in line for upsets?

ESPN Betting Insiders

Nov 12, 2021, 11:43 AM

Week 10 of the NFL season is already upon us. It kicked off with the Miami Dolphins pulling off an upset of the Baltimore Ravens. What's in store for Sunday? We have it covered.

Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (12-18-2, 1-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (8-19, 1-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (33-18-1, 2-3) and Anita Marks (152-122, 13-18), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (73-53, 17-10), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (38-37, 4-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (2-7, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (20-14-1, 3-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (28-18, 4-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).

8:20 p.m. ET game

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Fulghum: I would love this if it got to +3, but I'll still take the points with the Raiders in a bounce-back spot against a Chiefs team that continues to look broken. The Raiders played the Chiefs well last season in two close games, beating them at Arrowhead Stadium.

Pick: Raiders +2.5

Walder: Tyreek Hill's receiving yards line (73.5) is a decent bit below his expected receiving yards per game (86.0) this season, based on data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Now, Patrick Mahomes has been underperforming in the completion percentage over the expectation department this year to the tune of -3%, a couple points worse than his career average. The good news is that the Raiders are allowing opponents' a CPOE of +1.4%. Between expected positive regression and the opponent, I think it's reasonable to expect Mahomes to be something close to average in the CPOE department in this game. That, in turn, should make Hill's expected receiving yards per game a decent benchmark for what he should do Monday night. I like his chances of hitting the over.

Pick: Hill over 73.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: Derek Carr owns the Chiefs. In his past two games against Kansas City, he has passed for 622 yards and six TDs. Main target Darren Waller is back healthy after an 11-target game in Week 9 and is ready for another big game. Newly added DeSean Jackson should fill the void of Henry Ruggs III as a deep threat.

Picks: Over 51.5, Carr over 1.5 touchdowns (-115), Carr over 289.5 passing yards (-115), Waller over 68.5 receiving yards (-120), Waller anytime touchdown (+113)

4 p.m. ET games

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10.5, 44)

Marks: The Panthers offensive line ranks 29th in the NFL and took a huge hit this past week -- losing both LT Cameron Erving (calf) and C Matt Paradis (knee). The game script is one where the Panthers will be playing from behind and will need to abandon the run to keep up with the scoring pace of the Cardinals.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey under 62.5 rushing yards (-120)

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 52.5)

Schatz: I've been writing all year about how advanced metrics had the Chargers lower than conventional wisdom. Our DVOA metric also has the Vikings higher than conventional wisdom. The Vikings are 11th in DVOA and the Chargers are 16th. The Chargers have the better offense, but the Vikings have a top-10 defense, even after giving up 34 points to the Ravens last week. There's also a big gap here in special teams, which continues to be a problem for the Chargers. They are dead last in special teams DVOA for the third straight year. This may be a good chance for the Vikings to get their running game going; they're a surprising 29th in run offense DVOA, but the Chargers are dead last in run defense. Also, don't be surprised if Tyler Conklin plays a big role for the Vikings, as the Chargers are 31st in the league covering tight ends -- even after we adjust for facing the likes of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller.

Pick: Vikings +3

Fortenbaugh: Some teams throughout the wide world of sports can be tricky to figure out. Minnesota is not one of those clubs. When the Vikings play at home, they allow just 17 points per game with help from the incredible crowd noise created at U.S. Bank Stadium. But when Minnesota goes on the road, it's a different story entirely, as the defense surrenders an average of 30.8 points per game (second-worst in the NFL). And it's not as if there's an outlier in the bunch. So far this season, the Vikings have given up 27 at Cincinnati, 34 at Arizona, 28 at Carolina and 34 at Baltimore. The Chargers are averaging 29 points per game at home this season and should hang a big number in this one.

Pick: Chargers team total over 27.5 points

Marks: All of the Vikings' road games have gone over this season. And now they will be without cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Harrison Smith against the young and fabulous Justin Herbert. The Vikings' coaching staff said they need to get Justin Jefferson more targets this week, and I'm banking on it.

Picks: Chargers -3, over 53, Jefferson over 5.5 receptions (-140)

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 45)

Schatz: The Broncos' defense ranks second in the league in points allowed, but that's partly because the Broncos also benefit from the second-best starting field position of any defense in the league. Denver is not particularly efficient on defense, ranking only 22nd in DVOA. In fact, its offense ranks higher than its defense at No. 14. The same is true for the Eagles, who rank 13th in offensive DVOA and 24th on defense. The Broncos' slow pace (31st in situation-neutral pace) will be mitigated by the Eagles' much faster pace (second). It all suggests a game with more scoring than expected. Overall, we have this game going over in 64% of simulations.

Pick: Over 45

Fortenbaugh: These are two underrated defenses, at least from a statistical standpoint. Denver enters Week 10 ranked second in the NFL in scoring defense and both units find themselves within the top 10 in opponent yards per play. Throw in the fact that Denver ranks 29th in the league in pace and we should be able to grind our way to an under.

Pick: Under 45

Kezirian: Not a ton of hard core numbers from me, as both Joe and Aaron make strong cases for their plays. I just don't see either coach opting for a high-scoring affair, given the limited passing abilities of both Jalen Hurts and Teddy Bridgewater. As I have laid out in this space before, when two limited offenses are involved, I prefer an under on the first half. Often we see one team trail by double digits and force plays in the second half or even go for it on fourth down. Teams in these scenarios are usually more conservative in the first half.

Pick: First half under 21.5

Marks: Jalen Hurts has 31 total passing attempts over the past two weeks, and I see much of the same against a good Broncos pass defense. The Broncos lost three starting offensive lineman this week, so expect Bridgewater to struggle against an Eagles team that plays a lot of zone coverage.

Picks: Bridgewater under 1.5 TD passes (+105)

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 49.5)

Schatz: The most important part of picking this game is getting an accurate read on how good each offense truly is because of the time each one has spent with a backup quarterback who is inferior to the starter. Take out the games with Geno Smith starting and Seattle's pass offense DVOA would be the best in the league at around 60%. Take out last week's Jordan Love experience and Green Bay's pass offense DVOA would be seventh at around 30%. That's a pretty big gap between what Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have done so far. In reality, that gap is probably smaller. Rodgers is coming off an MVP season and had a fluky bad game in Week 1. So let's say for now that the two passing games are equal.

The running games currently rank 11th and 12th in the league in DVOA, so those are equal. Green Bay has the better defense, currently 16th compared to 23rd for Seattle. The Seahawks have the better special teams unit, 12th compared to Green Bay at 30th. Add defense and special teams together, and these units cancel each other out.

So if we have two equal passing games and two equal running games and the defense and special teams cancel each other out, why would you not take Seattle and the points? Remember, there has basically been no home-field advantage in the NFL for three years now.

Pick: Seahawks +3.5

Walder: Let's throw out the advanced stats for a minute and look at a simple one: point differential. The Packers? They're at +19 this season. Seattle is at +12. Are we sure these two teams are that different? FPI certainly doesn't think so. If it were setting this line, it would make it Packers -1. Yes, Green Bay is home, but that advantage is largely wiped out by the fact that Seattle is coming off a bye. This line has been bouncing around a little, but as long as you're getting more than a field goal, I like Seattle.

Though props-wise, I'm fading one Seahawk. Typically, when I compare expected receiving yards per game -- derived from NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion percentage, air yards and expected YAC -- and receiving prop lines, the numbers are very similar. But that's not the case with DK Metcalf on Sunday night, with a line of 70.5 despite averaging 49 expected receiving yards per game. Yes, Metcalf has beaten those expectations, and yes, he has done that despite playing with Geno Smith for part of the season. But 70.5 is simply out of line with the kind of opportunity he has been getting in Seattle's offense.

Picks: Seahawks +3.5, Metcalf under 70.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: Seattle gets Wilson back this week. Meanwhile, Rodgers cannot get back into the Packers' team facility until Saturday and is still dealing with health concerns from COVID-19, so there is a chance Jordan Love could get another start. Jump on this line now!

Picks: Seahawks +3.5

1 p.m. ET games

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 54.5)

Schatz: The Falcons have been very bad according to Football Outsiders' stats, ranking 31st overall in DVOA. But Matt Ryan has been very good and has been putting up numbers. Ryan has over 300 yards passing in four games this year, with a fifth that went just over this week's player prop number. Dallas is a top-10 team in defensive DVOA, but there are two specifics that have me leaning towards Ryan's over. First, Atlanta is likely to be behind in this game late, which means extra passing yardage as the Falcons try to come back. Second, Dallas ranks 32nd in DVOA covering tight ends this year. That's a sign of a big game for Ryan's favorite receiver, rookie Kyle Pitts.