Three survivor pool myths
Survivor pools are hard enough to win with a sound pick making strategy. But if you let unreliable conventional wisdom about survivor pools influence your pick decisions, you are giving away an edge to your competitors.
Thanks to research from the survivor pool experts at TeamRankings.com, here are three pieces of popular survivor advice that qualify as myths, not facts.
Myth No 1: "Never pick a team in a division rivalry game"
Going back to 2002, when the current NFL divisions were formed, favorites of a touchdown or more -- the types of teams that often end up as attractive survivor pool picks -- have won 81 percent of their division matchups and 79 percent of their non-division matchups.
Myth No. 2: "Never pick a road team"
Home field advantage in the NFL is real. In fact, 75 percent of teams favored by a touchdown or more last season were playing at home. At the same time, it's exceedingly rare for road teams to be huge favorites. Over the last 17 years, a road team was favored by 11 or more points in only 30 games -- less than twice per year, on average. Market-based metrics like point spreads already "price in" the market's expectation of the impact of various public information.
There's no benefit in picking a 6-point home favorite over a 7-point road favorite.
Myth No. 3: "Don't think too far ahead"
According to data from SurvivorGrid.com, over the last nine years, an average of 0.57 percent of survivor entries nationwide have made it through Week 17 alive. So if your pool has around 175 or more entries, you should expect to have to go the distance to win it.
Over the past two seasons, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in winnings from NFL survivor pools. Check out their data-driven survivor picks and tools.