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Week 1 NFL betting trends to know: Go with underdogs?

There are reasons to be optimistic about Teddy Bridgewater's debut with Carolina, despite the Panthers being underdogs.against the Raiders. Grant Halverson/Getty Images

After another long offseason, Week 1 of the new NFL campaign has finally arrived. Picking underdogs has been profitable in Week 1 of late, by the way. During the past eight seasons, underdogs have covered 56.3% of the time (67-52-6) in Week 1.

But things might look very different in 2020, after zero preseason games and with limited fans. Here are the rest of the Week 1 NFL betting trends.

Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and are subject to change.


Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 55), Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Reigning Super Bowl champions are 12-4-3 ATS in Week 1 the following season since 2001, and 8-2-3 ATS when hosting the season opener on Thursday.

• Kansas City has won and covered nine straight games dating to last season.

• Houston is a 9.5-point underdog despite making the playoffs last season. That would be the third-largest underdog line for a playoff team from the previous season, and the largest since 1986.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 42.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

• Last season, New England was favored by a combined 35 points over Miami, the second-largest combined spread in regular-season matchups in the past 25 seasons. (New England was favored by 38 over Miami in 2007). However, Miami won these teams' Week 17 matchup last season as a 17-point underdog, the largest upset the Dolphins have had in the Super Bowl era.

• This is the 64th straight regular-season game in which New England has been favored, dating to Week 2 of 2016 -- the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. New England is 41-22 ATS in that span.

• Miami went 9-3 ATS in its final 12 games last season, all as an underdog.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 48.5), 1 p.m. ET

• Cleveland is 0-6 ATS and SU in its past six road games. Its most recent road win came in Week 4 last season when it upset Baltimore 40-25 as a seven-point underdog.

• Baltimore is 9-3 ATS and SU in Week 1 games under John Harbaugh with four straight covers.

Lamar Jackson is 19-3 in his career as a starter in the regular season, going 13-8-1 ATS. He has won 11 straight starts, and covered in eight of his past nine.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 39), 1 p.m. ET

• New York is 8-17-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2016.

• The underdog has won four of the past five meetings outright, including New York winning each of the past two games in Buffalo.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 48) at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET

Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best mark by anyone in the Super Bowl era (minimum 15 starts). Last year with New Orleans, he started four times as an underdog and his team won all four games outright.

• Las Vegas is 0-2 outright as a road favorite during Jon Gruden's current tenure, losing both games by the same score of 34-3. The Raiders are 5-10 outright and 4-10-1 ATS as road favorites since losing Super Bowl XXXVII in the 2002 season.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 48.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET

• Atlanta covered in seven of its final nine games last season, and went 4-1 outright in its last five games as an underdog last season.

Matt Ryan is 12-5 ATS in his career as a home underdog (regular season).

• Atlanta has covered in all four meetings since 2016 including the playoffs (2-2 SU).

Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43.5) at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m. ET

• Philadelphia has won six meetings in a row, going 5-1 ATS. The only non-cover was the teams' Week 1 matchup last season (the Eagles won by five as 10-point favorites).

• Under head coach Doug Pederson, the over is 21-9-2 in Philadelphia's regular-season road games (since 2016).

• Washington has lost 10 straight division games, going 1-9 ATS in that span.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3. 44.5), 1 p.m. ET

• Detroit's past nine Week 1 games all went over the total.

• Detroit was 0-6 (3-3 ATS) in division games last season, and is 2-10 (5-7 ATS) under Matt Patricia. This is just the second time Detroit is favored in a division game under Patricia (the first was in Week 5 of 2018).

• Chicago was 1-7 ATS on the road last season, failing to cover in the final six games. The Bears were 2-10 ATS in their final 12 games last season regardless of location.

Indianapolis Colts (-8, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET

• Jacksonville is 8-1-1 ATS in 10 meetings against Indianapolis since 2015 (6-4 outright).

• Indianapolis is on track to be the fifth team since the 1970 merger to be at least a touchdown favorite in Week 1 after missing the playoffs the previous season. All four previous teams failed to cover, and three of the four lost outright.

• Colts coach Frank Reich is 3-7 ATS as a favorite of at least four points, and 0-3 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 46), 1 p.m. ET

• This is the sixth consecutive season that Minnesota has been favored in its season opener, the longest active streak in the NFL. The Vikings have covered each of the past four seasons in Week 1.

• Since hiring Mike Zimmer as head coach in 2014, the Vikings are 60-34-2 ATS overall (.638), 33-14-1 ATS at home (.702) and 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite (.703), all the best marks in the NFL in that span (regular season).

• The under is 8-2 in the previous 10 meetings involving the teams.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 43.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:05 p.m. ET

• Los Angeles has failed to cover in each of its past five games in which the spread is between -3 and +3.

• Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS against Los Angeles in their past six regular-season meetings dating to 2009.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 47), 4:25 p.m. ET

• In the past 20 seasons, teams that lost in the Super Bowl the previous season are 4-16 ATS in Week 1 the following season. However, they have covered each of the past two seasons.

• San Francisco is 3-15-2 ATS in its past 20 games as a home favorite.

• Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five matchups with San Francisco.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 49), 4:25 p.m. ET

Tom Brady had been favored in 74 straight regular-season games entering this season, the longest streak by any QB in the Super Bowl era, but that streak comes to an end this week. Ironically, the next-longest active streak belongs to Drew Brees, who is favored for the 10th straight start this week.

• Brady is 33-21 outright as an underdog, including playoffs, and 37-16-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. The .611 winning percentage is the best in the Super Bowl era by any QB as an underdog (minimum 15 starts). Brady is 29-18 outright as an underdog in the regular season and 33-13-1 ATS.

• New Orleans has failed to cover in Week 1 in six straight seasons (1-5 outright). In the Saints' past 10 Week 1 games, they are 1-8-1 ATS (tied for the worst mark in the NFL during that span).

Dallas Cowboys (-3, 51.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET

• Los Angeles is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 games as a home underdog.

• Los Angeles is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight September games dating back to the 2018 season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at New York Giants, Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET

• New York is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 games as a home underdog.

• Thirty-one of Pittsburgh's past 40 road games have gone under the total.

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (PK, 41), Monday, 10:10 p.m. ET

• Denver is 6-1 ATS against Tennessee in its past seven games against the Titans.

• Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past five seasons.