Donna Kelce has emerged as the breakout star of Media Week. From sporting a custom jersey to passing out fresh-baked cookies, she has captured the nation's attention. Her sons -- Jason and Travis Kelce -- will become the first brothers to ever face off in a Super Bowl on Sunday.
Decades of carting kids to and from practice, packing snacks and breaking up in-house brawls appears to have paid off handsomely for the Kelce family. With a plethora of Kelce-centric player props available, it could also pay off for fans of the brothers and their respective teams.
Welcome to Props that Pop: TJ2K Edition! Utilizing ESPN's metrics database and some assistance from stats ace Kyle Soppe, we're uncovering two props for each brother and closing it out with a head-to-head bet.
Travis Kelce OVER 76.5 receiving yards
Talk about a strength-on-strength matchup! Kelce dominated the position, clearing 1,000 yards for the seventh year in row while averaging 78.7 (TE1) receiving yards per game. But the Eagles passing defense is a shut-down unit that allowed a league-low 5.5 yards per attempt. In what projects to be a high-scoring game (51.0) with lots of back-and-forth, however, my money is on Kelce to secure the bag.
Unsurprisingly, the 33-year-old goes harder when he gets more time off between contests. In fact, Kelce has averaged 81 receiving yards per game when resting for more than the requisite six days between regular season Sunday-to-Sunday efforts. To that end, he converted 10 of 15 looks for 133 yards the last time he made a Super Bowl appearance. And that was versus Tampa Bay's top-five ranked passing defense.
Additionally, Kelce drew at least 14 targets in over 23% of the 26 games in which he received extended rest. He is going to see all of the volume! Even with a reduced aDOT, he figures to climb past the above marker and should flirt with 80 yards.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions
Speaking of reduced aDOT, the Eagles defense boasts the fourth lowest aDOT against. Meaning, it doesn't give up many deep balls. That may not be great for a passing yards prop, but it works nicely when counting completions.
The Mahomes to Kelce connection is undeniable. Kelce drew 30% of the team's total targets. More specifically, he recorded a target share of 27.5% on balls thrown under 10 yards. With Philly's defense coming in hot, Mahomes figures to dink-and-dunk his way past the above line utilizing Kelce (and JuJu Smith-Schuster). To that end, the star QB has managed 28.9 completions per game when targeting Kelce at least 10 times. Assuming Kelce hits double-digit targets in the biggest game of the year (he averaged 9.7 looks per game over the regular season), then Mahomes should surpass 25 completions.
Kenneth Gainwell to score a TD (+255)
As outlined in my SBLVII edition of Props that Pop, the Eagles own short scores. Philadelphia has not only recorded the highest percentage of TDs from a single yard out (25.6%), but the squad has also managed the fifth-most 1-yard scores (10) in 2022. That's a credit to Jason Kelce and the Eagles top-six ranked run-blocking unit.
Gainwell has come alive over the postseason, managing double-digit carries in back-to-back efforts. Coming off a season-high 14 totes, he figures to be in the mix on Sunday and should benefit from the aforementioned O-line's efficiency near the goal line. The odds of a TD become more probable when noting the Chiefs defensive struggles in the red zone. Kansas City has been below average in goal-to-goal situations, ranking 31st in red zone defense.
Jalen Hurts OVER 50.5 rushing yards
I'm already in on Hurts going over 10.5 rushing attempts. With the elder Kelce assisting up front, his ultra-mobile QB should take full advantage of high quantity and quality running opportunities. This has been the standard for Hurts, who averaged 73.6 rushing yards per game when notching 10.5 carries over the season. He also recorded at least 57 rushing yards in six of those eight games.
Hurts' rushing numbers additionally spike in close contests. He averaged 14.5 carries per game over the eight games that were decided by a single digit this season. In those eight efforts, he also posted a 66.6 rushing yard average. The spread on this game is 1.5 points, suggesting Hurts will regularly rely on his greatest attribute to push his team toward a victory.
Travis Kelce (receiving yards) vs Jason Kelce (snaps)
This matchup is serving all of the ceiling versus floor vibes. It's sibling rivalry at its best!
Travis averaged 79.7 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, Jason averaged 64.8 snaps per contest. I've already taken the OVER on Travis' 76.5 receiving yards prop, so you'll know which way I'm leaning. However, it's worth noting that Jason's season-high snap count reached 79. In a game that favors the Eagles, Jason's snap count should spike, but I don't believe it surpasses 70 snaps.
Jason reached his highest snap totals of 2022 in Week 4 versus the Jaguars (78 snaps) and in Week 12 versus the Packers (79 snaps). The Eagles were victorious in both of those efforts, beating Jacksonville by eight points and Green Bay by seven. It makes sense that in a winning effort, Jason would stay on the field while Philly controlled the tempo and kept the opposing offense relegated to the sidelines. But as discussed numerous times above, this game doesn't figure to be a blow out.
Ultimately, Travis might be the winner of this prop ... but Jason is walking away with the ring.
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