NFL scouts tend to view players through prototypes. They covet specific physical attributes of what makes successful players, as there are defined and refined formulas for height, weight and speed at every position.
When one NFL scout evaluated the TCU defense this year, he saw what he always saw -- a hard-hitting, try-hard group that flies around the field. He didn't see many body types that translate to Sundays.
"The only NFL body type of their defense up front is [defensive end] Dylan Horton," the scout said, referencing the players who are likely to enter the NFL draft. "In terms of front seven guys, they're not super talented up front."
The scout concluded: "If TCU is going to win this game, it's going to be more of a 38-28 game. They're not going to win a slugfest."
TCU's unconventional defense from 3-3-5 maestro Joe Gillespie, the team's first-year defensive coordinator, is built more to slow down the Big 12's offenses than to address Michigan's steady diet of inside zone run plays cribbed from Big Ten central casting.
We quizzed a dozen coaches and NFL scouts who studied both teams this year, and the consistent worry that emerged was whether TCU could physically withstand the inevitable and predictable Michigan offensive game plan. (It wasn't lost that Cincinnati's 3-3-5 got pushed around by a simplistic Alabama offensive game plan in the College Football Playoff last year.)
The tension of this College Football Playoff semifinal (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) is simple -- will Michigan's physical mismatch behind an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award allow it to push TCU around and control the ball and the game? Or will a TCU defense that held Texas star tailback Bijan Robinson to essentially the worst game of his career muster a creative counter?
Before casting TCU as a complete pushover, it's important to note that one NFL scout called it "one of the most physical teams I've seen this year." That will be tested.
"I think Michigan's superpower is they do what they do and they have complete alignment in how and why they are doing it," said an opposing coach. "I thought they beat Ohio State because they're a complete team. They are self-aware and know what they are good at. They believe in it, and they do it."
TCU has flashed run dominance, even if it's yielding 4.1 yards per carry and rank No. 67 against the run for the season. Can Michigan's defiant ethos of methodical football lean into an area where TCU appears vulnerable?