After a week with only a couple of really big games, the top of this week's SP+ ratings haven't changed very much. In fact, the top 10 didn't change at all. Ohio State remained No. 1 after a mostly comfortable win over Penn State (which remained No. 7), and you have to go down to the near-teens -- Wisconsin moved up to No. 12, Memphis to No. 13 -- to find any movement.
Part of the reason for this stagnation at the top: SP+ never liked Oregon very much. The Ducks ranked just 15th heading into last week, and SP+ was far friendlier to Arizona State's chances (Oregon by 10.2) than Vegas was -- the line began around Oregon -15 before shifting toward -13.
That was the highlight of another strong weekend for these ratings. SP+ went 32-22-4 against the spread (59%), and after a midseason slump (49.7% ATS from weeks 7-9), it's caught fire again (56% since week 10) and remains at 55% for the season.
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Overall SP+ Rankings Team (Record) Rating Offense Defense Special Teams 1. Ohio St. (11-0) 36.2 42.8 (5) 8.3 (1) 1.7 (18) 2. Alabama (10-1) 32.6 47.0 (3) 14.1 (6) -0.3 (74) 3. LSU (11-0) 29.9 47.9 (2) 20.1 (29) 2.2 (8) 4. Clemson (11-0) 28.8 41.4 (6) 11.4 (3) -1.2 (103) 5. Georgia (10-1) 27.7 34.1 (34) 9.3 (2) 2.9 (1) 6. Oklahoma (10-1) 25.7 48.4 (1) 24.0 (41) 1.3 (28) 7. Penn St. (9-2) 24.1 36.8 (16) 14.9 (10) 2.2 (7) 8. Utah (10-1) 23.9 38.4 (10) 14.3 (7) -0.3 (72) 9. Florida (9-2) 22.8 35.9 (19) 14.7 (9) 1.6 (19) 10. Michigan (9-2) 22.7 35.0 (26) 12.7 (5) 0.3 (52) 11. Auburn (8-3) 22.2 32.4 (46) 11.4 (4) 1.3 (30) 12. Wisconsin (9-2) 21.0 37.7 (11) 16.1 (14) -0.6 (87) 13. Memphis (10-1) 20.4 40.3 (7) 22.5 (35) 2.6 (3) 14. Minnesota (10-1) 19.7 40.1 (8) 19.5 (25) -0.9 (93) 15. Notre Dame (9-2) 18.4 35.4 (22) 17.8 (20) 0.8 (39) 16. Texas A&M (7-4) 18.0 35.0 (23) 17.5 (18) 0.5 (45) 17. Washington (6-5) 18.0 35.0 (24) 19.7 (28) 2.6 (2) 18. UCF (8-3) 17.9 37.2 (13) 19.2 (24) -0.1 (66) 19. Baylor (10-1) 17.8 35.6 (20) 17.5 (17) -0.3 (75) 20. Oregon (9-2) 17.7 37.0 (14) 17.8 (19) -1.5 (111) 21. Iowa (8-3) 15.7 29.0 (63) 14.7 (8) 1.4 (24) 22. Indiana (7-4) 14.5 36.9 (15) 23.9 (40) 1.5 (22) 23. USC (8-4) 14.4 39.1 (9) 26.0 (50) 1.3 (27) 24. Iowa St. (7-4) 14.3 33.0 (40) 18.3 (21) -0.4 (77) 25. Miami (6-5) 13.4 30.0 (58) 16.0 (13) -0.6 (85) 26. Wash. St. (6-5) 12.7 44.1 (4) 33.7 (95) 2.3 (4) 27. Oklahoma St. (8-3) 11.1 36.1 (17) 25.2 (47) 0.2 (56) 28. Boise St. (10-1) 10.6 34.4 (33) 24.5 (44) 0.7 (43) 29. UL-Lafayette (9-2) 9.8 35.5 (21) 27.0 (58) 1.3 (31) 30. Air Force (9-2) 9.6 35.9 (18) 28.6 (72) 2.3 (5) 31. Texas (6-5) 9.4 37.2 (12) 29.7 (77) 1.9 (12) 32. App. St. (10-1) 9.3 32.6 (44) 22.8 (37) -0.5 (82) 33. Cincinnati (10-1) 9.0 28.5 (69) 20.8 (31) 1.4 (25) 34. Navy (8-2) 8.8 33.9 (35) 26.3 (54) 1.2 (33) 35. TCU (5-6) 8.7 30.8 (51) 23.2 (39) 1.0 (35) 36. Missouri (5-6) 8.6 25.3 (84) 17.3 (15) 0.6 (44) 37. Virginia (8-3) 8.6 28.5 (68) 21.0 (32) 1.1 (34) 38. Tennessee (6-5) 8.1 26.7 (79) 18.8 (23) 0.1 (58) 39. Tulane (6-5) 7.7 34.6 (31) 26.9 (57) 0.0 (62) 40. Michigan St. (5-6) 7.6 25.1 (86) 16.0 (12) -1.5 (114) 41. Arizona St. (6-5) 7.5 30.5 (53) 24.8 (46) 1.8 (15) 42. Va. Tech (8-3) 7.1 28.2 (70) 21.8 (33) 0.8 (40) 43. S. Carolina (4-7) 6.8 24.2 (91) 19.6 (26) 2.2 (6) 44. Temple (7-4) 5.9 23.8 (95) 18.4 (22) 0.5 (46) 45. N. Carolina (5-6) 5.9 33.4 (37) 27.2 (61) -0.4 (76) 46. Texas Tech (4-7) 5.5 33.4 (36) 29.6 (76) 1.6 (20) 47. Kentucky (6-5) 5.3 26.8 (77) 22.3 (34) 0.8 (41) 48. Kansas St. (7-4) 5.3 29.2 (61) 25.8 (48) 1.9 (10) 49. Miss. St. (5-6) 5.0 33.1 (39) 27.1 (59) -1.0 (96) 50. SMU (9-2) 5.0 34.8 (30) 28.3 (70) -1.5 (113) 51. Florida St. (6-5) 4.3 32.7 (42) 27.3 (64) -1.0 (97) 52. Nebraska (5-6) 4.2 33.0 (41) 26.6 (55) -2.2 (123) 53. FAU (8-3) 3.3 29.7 (59) 26.8 (56) 0.4 (49) 54. Wake Forest (8-3) 3.1 30.0 (57) 28.0 (67) 1.0 (36) 55. Ole Miss (4-7) 2.9 29.1 (62) 24.3 (43) -1.8 (119) 56. Illinois (6-5) 2.6 26.4 (80) 25.8 (49) 2.0 (9) 57. Louisville (7-4) 1.9 34.9 (29) 32.6 (89) -0.4 (80) 58. Pittsburgh (7-4) 1.4 18.1 (118) 15.6 (11) -1.1 (99) 59. BYU (7-4) 1.3 29.6 (60) 27.5 (65) -0.9 (92) 60. Army (5-6) 0.3 28.1 (71) 27.3 (62) -0.6 (86) 61. Ohio (5-6) 0.1 35.0 (25) 36.1 (110) 1.2 (32) 62. Purdue (4-7) -0.1 30.3 (54) 30.5 (79) 0.2 (57) 63. San Diego St. (8-3) -0.6 14.8 (126) 17.3 (16) 1.9 (11) 64. Oregon St. (5-6) -1.5 35.0 (28) 34.9 (107) -1.6 (116) 65. Arkansas St. (7-4) -1.7 31.3 (49) 33.9 (96) 0.9 (37) 66. Wyoming (7-4) -1.8 20.3 (108) 22.5 (36) 0.4 (51) 67. Colorado (5-6) -1.9 31.3 (48) 34.1 (98) 0.9 (38) 68. UCLA (4-7) -2.0 30.1 (55) 31.9 (86) -0.2 (71) 69. WKU (7-4) -2.3 21.2 (107) 23.0 (38) -0.5 (83) 70. UAB (8-3) -2.5 17.6 (121) 19.7 (27) -0.4 (78) 71. Marshall (7-4) -2.8 24.0 (92) 27.1 (60) 0.4 (48) 72. Syracuse (4-7) -2.8 24.8 (89) 29.5 (75) 1.8 (14) 73. Duke (4-7) -2.8 20.1 (109) 24.6 (45) 1.7 (17) 74. La. Tech (8-3) -2.8 25.6 (83) 28.2 (69) -0.2 (70) 75. Troy (5-6) -2.9 33.1 (38) 34.7 (102) -1.4 (108) 76. Houston (4-7) -2.9 28.9 (66) 33.5 (93) 1.7 (16) 77. Boston Coll. (5-6) -3.0 35.0 (27) 36.2 (111) -1.8 (118) 78. NC St. (4-7) -3.1 23.5 (96) 27.9 (66) 1.3 (29) 79. Stanford (4-7) -3.1 27.0 (76) 30.7 (81) 0.7 (42) 80. Fresno St. (4-7) -3.1 31.9 (47) 34.0 (97) -1.0 (98) 81. So. Miss (7-4) -3.3 25.6 (82) 28.5 (71) -0.4 (81) 82. Utah St. (6-5) -3.4 25.2 (85) 29.1 (74) 0.5 (47) 83. Hawaii (8-4) -3.5 34.4 (32) 36.5 (112) -1.5 (110) 84. California (6-5) -3.9 22.2 (102) 24.3 (42) -1.8 (120) 85. WMU (7-4) -4.4 32.5 (45) 34.9 (104) -2.0 (122) 86. Tulsa (3-8) -5.3 23.0 (97) 26.1 (52) -2.2 (124) 87. Arizona (4-7) -5.6 32.6 (43) 37.0 (115) -1.2 (106) 88. Maryland (3-8) -5.7 27.8 (73) 30.8 (82) -2.6 (127) 89. W. Virginia (4-7) -5.7 25.1 (87) 29.7 (78) -1.1 (100) 90. N. Texas (4-7) -5.9 26.0 (81) 33.2 (90) 1.4 (26) 91. Northwestern (2-9) -5.9 16.0 (122) 20.4 (30) -1.5 (112) 92. Liberty (6-5) -6.1 28.9 (64) 34.9 (106) -0.1 (68) 93. Ga. Southern (6-5) -6.6 21.8 (105) 28.2 (68) -0.2 (69) 94. Buffalo (6-5) -7.0 21.7 (106) 26.2 (53) -2.5 (126) 95. USF (4-7) -7.0 21.8 (104) 26.0 (51) -2.8 (128) 96. CMU (7-4) -7.2 25.0 (88) 30.9 (83) -1.3 (107) 97. FIU (6-5) -7.5 22.8 (99) 30.5 (80) 0.2 (55) 98. Colorado St. (4-7) -7.7 23.8 (93) 31.7 (85) 0.2 (54) 99. Ball St. (4-7) -7.8 27.9 (72) 34.5 (101) -1.2 (102) 100. Charlotte (6-5) -8.7 30.0 (56) 38.1 (120) -0.7 (90) 101. Kansas (3-8) -8.8 27.3 (75) 34.9 (105) -1.2 (105) 102. Vanderbilt (3-8) -8.8 23.0 (98) 33.3 (91) 1.5 (23) 103. Ga. Tech (3-8) -9.3 19.9 (110) 27.3 (63) -1.9 (121) 104. Georgia St. (7-4) -9.7 31.1 (50) 39.2 (122) -1.6 (117) 105. EMU (6-5) -9.8 28.6 (67) 37.8 (119) -0.7 (89) 106. Miami-OH (7-4) -10.0 18.6 (115) 29.0 (73) 0.4 (50) 107. San Jose St. (4-7) -10.4 28.9 (65) 39.3 (124) 0.0 (64) 108. Arkansas (2-9) -10.4 22.8 (100) 33.5 (92) 0.2 (53) 109. MTSU (4-7) -11.0 27.5 (74) 37.3 (116) -1.2 (104) 110. Toledo (6-5) -11.7 26.8 (78) 37.5 (117) -1.0 (94) 111. Kent St. (5-6) -11.8 23.8 (94) 37.5 (118) 1.9 (13) 112. UL-Monroe (5-6) -12.0 30.7 (52) 41.2 (127) -1.6 (115) 113. ECU (4-7) -12.1 24.8 (90) 36.9 (114) 0.1 (59) 114. Nevada (7-4) -12.3 18.8 (114) 31.1 (84) 0.1 (60) 115. Coastal Caro. (4-7) -13.5 22.8 (101) 35.6 (109) -0.6 (88) 116. NIU (4-7) -13.8 22.2 (103) 35.3 (108) -0.8 (91) 117. Rutgers (2-9) -14.0 18.1 (119) 32.0 (87) 0.0 (65) 118. Texas St. (3-8) -14.7 17.6 (120) 32.1 (88) -0.3 (73) 119. New Mexico (2-9) -18.5 19.9 (111) 40.0 (126) 1.6 (21) 120. UNLV (3-8) -19.5 18.5 (116) 36.9 (113) -1.2 (101) 121. NMSU (2-9) -20.7 18.9 (113) 39.5 (125) -0.1 (67) 122. Rice (2-9) -20.9 13.4 (128) 34.2 (99) 0.0 (63) 123. S. Alabama (1-10) -22.8 14.3 (127) 34.3 (100) -2.9 (129) 124. ODU (1-10) -23.5 10.5 (129) 33.6 (94) -0.4 (79) 125. UTSA (4-7) -24.0 19.3 (112) 42.3 (128) -1.0 (95) 126. UConn (2-9) -24.2 15.6 (124) 38.5 (121) -1.4 (109) 127. UTEP (1-10) -26.1 18.4 (117) 44.5 (129) 0.0 (61) 128. BGSU (3-8) -27.5 14.8 (125) 39.2 (123) -3.1 (130) 129. Akron (0-11) -28.8 8.2 (130) 34.7 (103) -2.3 (125) 130. UMass (1-11) -33.6 15.9 (123) 49.0 (130) -0.5 (84)