This season is unique, because we've already had a whole raft of blockbuster deals come down the pike since September that have already re-shaped the NBA landscape multiple times. The result, to me, changes the dynamic of this season's NBA trade deadline, which is Feb. 8 at 3 p.m. ET.
While more blockbusters could certainly happen, I'm more looking at smaller, fit-type deals that could do just enough to change the trajectory of teams that might be a small piece or two away from that 'click' that puts them where they need to be.
The NBA futures market this season is also unique, because there are no juggernaut teams in either conference. The Celtics and the Nuggets have been the favorites for most of the season, and well deserved, but neither give the sense that they can't or won't be challenged on the way to the Finals.
And right behind them are, conservatively, 10-12 teams with some combination of MVP-level superstars, successful playoffs experience and/or excellent performances thus far this season that all could have an impact on what teams are the last ones standing.
So, today, let's look at where these two phenomena intersect. Which teams have the potential to make significant noise in the NBA futures market if they can find that ideal trade before Thursday's trade deadline?
We'll explore a few of those teams, identifying the needs they need to fill with the types of deals that could do it, and project how their Futures prospects might change if they're able to make their deals.
New York Knicks
Odds: To win Championship (+2500), Eastern Conference (+875), Atlantic Division (+5000)
Team needs: Playmaking wing, center
Proposed trade with Hawks: Acquire Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela for a combination of draft picks, Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson, Malachi Flynn
The Knicks have played as well as any team in the NBA since trading for 3-and-D forward extraordinaire OG Anunoby. Despite the on-going questions about whether they have enough star power to contend, Jalen Brunson continues to play at a borderline MVP level and, before his injury, Julius Randle was turning in another All Star caliber season as well. The Knicks have constructed a formidable team built around the offensive playmaking of Brunson and Randle, with aggressive-minded 3-and-D perimeter players and rugged interior players in a Tom Thibideau defensive scheme. They are the proverbial team no one wants to play, even with Randle (shoulder) and starting center Mitchell Robinson (ankle) both out with injury.
This trade would improve the Knicks by giving them players who fit their current style of play, but with added offensive talent. Murray is a former All Star lead guard who made his bones as a defender but seems to have regressed on that end of the floor since joining the Hawks. The Knicks could really use his playmaking ability, particularly while Randle is out but even after he returns, because right now opponents can focus their entire defense on stopping Brunson.
I watched the Lakers do just that in the fourth quarter to beat the Knicks this weekend, and in big games there is a likelihood that more opponents would mimic that approach moving forward. Murray's presence would give the Knicks another offense-creator that would deter opponents from throwing the house at Brunson. Plus, in the Thibideau defensive culture, there is a strong probability that the 27-year-old Murray could regain his defensive prowess.
The Knicks have played well without Robinson, with Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa manning the middle as nightly double-double threats. But Capela could match their rebounding/defensive upside but with a more polished finishing game on offense. Brunson is excellent at running the pick-and-roll, and Capela has been a strong pick-and-roll partner to James Harden and Trae Young for most of his career.
This type of move helps address any lingering questions about the star quality at the top of the Knicks, giving them three All Stars in their primes to lead the way, and with the stylistic fit they would be a viable threat to win the Eastern Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds: Championship (+2000), Western Conference (+825), Northwest Division (+230)
Team needs: Playoffs tested/scoring floor general, center
Proposed trade with Raptors: Acquire Dennis Schroder, Jakob Poeltl for draft picks, Davis Bertans, Aleksej Pokusevski, Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins
I pitched and detailed this trade last week, and the logic for it still holds. The Thunder have put together an excellent starting lineup that has had them battling for the top spot in the Western Conference all season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is up to second in the MVP odds from the point guard slot, rookie big man Chet Holmgren has been top-2 in the Rookie of the Year race and top-5 in the Defensive Player of the Year race all season, and they have a troth of talented and hardworking wings, led by Jalen Williams, that make them a tough matchup on both offense and defense. But they could use improvements in quality depth at both point guard and center because their stars at both positions have a history of injury, and could use support getting through the NBA marathon with enough redundancy to make a run in the second marathon of the playoffs.
Schroder would be a strong fit for the Thunder. He is a playoffs-tested floor general that can control the team and score from the perimeter, he has experience as both a starter and a sixth man, and he has the size to play in the backcourt with both SGA and Josh Giddey. Over the weekend, I watched the Thunder struggle against the Raptors' press in overtime, resulting in Luguentz Dort having to bring the ball up and turning it over at a key juncture. Schroder helps in those instances, and his experience helps stabilize the extremely young Thunder going into the playoffs.
Poeltl is a starting caliber center that the Raptors traded for just last season, so he could be expensive. With that said, there isn't a team in the NBA with more draft capital to trade than the Thunder, and the Raptors are in a rebuild. Poeltl gives the Thunder an entirely different dimension. He is a walking double-double with excellent size. Holmgren, as great as he has played, is still very thin for a center and has the game to play power forward as well. With Poeltl in the fold, the Thunder would have more ways to win, being able to play bigger or smaller based upon their opponents.
The Thunder are already more viable as conference and NBA contenders than their odds suggest. With this type of move, they would significantly improve their likelihood to win without making the type of big splash that would be likely to move their odds.
Los Angeles Lakers
Odds: Championship (+1500), Western Conference (+1200), Pacific Division (+8000)
Team needs: 3&D wing, center with size
Proposed trade with Bulls: Acquire Alex Caruso, Andre Drummond for draft pick(s), Taurean Prince, Christian Wood, Max Christie
The Lakers are incredibly volatile in the futures market. On Monday, they were +4000 to win the championship and +1800 to win the West. Today, after their third straight win last night, they are +1500 to win the chip and +1200 to win the West. In addition to them being an extremely popular franchise featuring two superstars, one of which is on the short GOAT list, they already have a recent championship with this core and made a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals last season after making smart deadline deals that didn't bring stars back but balanced their team. They could do something similar this season.
The Lakers never should have let Caruso leave, and he is exactly what they need right now: an aggressive, defensive-minded wing that is also shooting over 40 percent on solid volume from behind the arc. He could slot in next to D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves on the perimeter, giving the Lakers three excellent shooters around LeBron and Anthony Davis, while also acting as the perimeter defensive captain. Kendrick Perkins just mentioned, on First Take, that he also thinks the Lakers could use Caruso back in Purple and Gold.
Meanwhile, the reason the Lakers' run ended with them getting swept in the Western Conference Final was because they, like the rest of the Nuggets' playoffs opponents, did not have any player big enough to slow Nikola Jokic. Drummond is not a defensive anchor, really, but he is a very big body and excellent rebounder that could get minutes next to Davis against big opposing frontlines. Davis is an elite center, but against some of the bigger centers in the league the Lakers need a player with Drummond's size that can give them starter minutes.
With a deal like this, I could see the Lakers as a better version of their team from last season and would see value in them for both the Western Conference and Championship at their current long odds.
Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers
Odds: Championship (+3000), Eastern Conference (+1100)
Team needs: Health
I include both of these teams who, interestingly, have the exact same championship and conference championship odds...not because I think they need to make a trade, but because both are "long shots" that could absolutely make the NBA Finals this season if they are able to get/stay healthy.
The Cavaliers have dual star playmakers on the perimeter and another duo of star players on the interior. Despite that quartet missing 61 combined games in the team's first 48, the Cavs still sit on top of the Central Division as the second seed in the Eastern Conference, having won 14 of their last 15 games. They should not be long shots, but they are, which makes them good value picks.
The 76ers, of course, only have a shot if Joel Embiid is able to return healthy in time for the playoffs. But if he does, they would enter the postseason led by a center that was overwhelmingly likely to win his second consecutive MVP award before injury felled him. And, for the first time in his career, Embiid would have the chance to enter the postseason healthy and rested. Were things to play out that way, with the way that Tyrese Maxey and the rest of the 76ers supporting cast have stepped up, the 76ers would have as good a chance to come out of the East as pretty much any other team ... just with much longer odds.
Other teams and trades to watch
The Minnesota Timberwolves remain relative longshots (+2000 chip, +800 West, +175 Northwest Division) considering they've been battling for the top of the Western standings all season. Their team has excellent size in the frontcourt and an elite playmaker in Anthony Edwards but could use another floor general/shot creator for late-game situations.
Edwards often ends up taking hero shots, which he can make, but they have lost several leads late in games due to stalled offense. Mike Conley Jr. helps when healthy, but a player like Chris Paul would be a perfect addition if there were any way to match salaries.
They could also be another suitor that would make sense for Dejounte Murray, but they are out of tradeable draft assets after emptying the cupboard to trade for Rudy Gobert. But a deal for a playmaker in crunch time, particularly one with playoffs experience, could pay dividends for the young Timberwolves.
The Dallas Mavericks (+4000 chip, +1900 West, +245 Southwest) are another team that could be a trade away from serious contention. When healthy, they are led by a perennial MVP candidate in Luka Doncic and one of the greatest secondary offensive engines in the NBA in Kyrie Irving.
They also are getting excellent shooting/scoring from Sixth Man of the Year candidate Tim Hardaway Jr. and a strong interior presence from rookie center Dereck Lively II.
The Mavs could use more production from their power forward slot; either a pure floor-stretching shooter like Bojan Bogdanovic of the Pistons or a strong finisher like John Collins of the Jazz could give the Mavericks' offense another dimension.