The Minnesota Timberwolves seek to even the Western Conference finals as sizable home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night.
Late-game Luka Doncic heroics and a Kyrie Irving opus fueled the Mavericks' upset win earlier this week, but a modest total suggests the expectation for a low-scoring affair.
Given how hard this actual series appears to predict, focusing on some key player trends could prove rewarding in tonight's prop market.
Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 20.5 points (-130). The price on this isn't ideal, but the actual scoring benchmark is also quite low. Which is to say, this reads like an achievable number for a guy coming off a 20-shot outing in Game 1. An efficient outcome could be due.
Dereck Lively II OVER 6.5 rebounds (-140). Hovering near 30 minutes of run last time out sets up Lively as a sleeper on the glass against an oversized opponent.
Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 assists (-115). One of the few heliocentric distributors left among the final four teams, Doncic should pace the entire matchup in total touches and pick-and-roll possessions, leading to real potential to cruise past this passing prop.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 101.5 points (-120). The Timberwolves are adept at closing out on shooters, which could see Dallas' success from deep on contested shots regress in this second matchup.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
West Finals - Game 2
8:30 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-5.5) Total: 207.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+185), Timberwolves (-220)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 0.7, straight up 52%, 209.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Ankle); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Shoulder); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)
Timberwolves: Mike Conley, (GTD - Achilles); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)