Approaching the quarter mark of the 2024-25 campaign, it's easy enough to argue Kirill Kaprizov is currently serving as the league's most valuable player to his club.
Logging heavy minutes every outing, the superstar forward is averaging 1.82 points/game -- 0.76 more than his next-most-productive teammate. Having played one fewer contest, his plus-16 on-ice even strength goal differential is tied with Alex Ovechkin for second in the league, trailing only Ovi's teammate Dylan Strome (+19). (Last season's Hart Trophy winner, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon, is plus-3 in on-ice EV GD, for comparison.) Without Kaprizov, the Wild might not even sit in a wild-card spot at this stage, never mind with the second-highest points tally in the West.
However formidable an individual presence, MacKinnon benefits from playing with Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar. The Oilers recently won two of three without Connor McDavid, thanks largely to the play of Leon Draisaitl (six points in those two victories). If staying true to the Hart Trophy as defined as honoring the player deemed most valuable to his team, Kaprizov's fiercest contenders might be New York's Artemi Panarin and Tampa's Nikita Kucherov -- two forwards who have also contributed that much extra to their club's success. With the Minnesota star plausibly in the lead, if The Thrill plays near 80 games this year -- he competed in 75 last year and 67 the previous season -- I like his shot at winning his first piece of personal hardware since securing the Calder in 2021.
For pure value, +3000 appears attractive should you believe Connor Hellebuyck has a shot at becoming the fifth goalie to win the Hart, and first since Carey Price in 2015. If the Jets' No. 1 ends up with 45 wins, a good number of shutouts (he already has three), and personal stats near the .930 SV% and 2.10 GAA mark, he should at least fall into the final conversation. Especially if Winnipeg ends up atop the Central Division. Yes, we have a long way to go, but it'll still be interesting to see how Hellebuyck responds against the visiting Panthers on Tuesday after losing convincingly in Florida over the weekend. It was only his second stinker -- and loss -- of the campaign.
Latest odds as of publication. For latest odds movement, go to ESPN BET.
Bonus player totals best bet 2024-25: Sam Reinhart regular-season goals OVER 49.5 (-105). No chance he flirts with the 50-plus mark again, right? Such a big ask, after last season's uncharacteristic output of 57 (plus another 37 assists). Well, already finding the back of the net 13 times in 18 contests, and scoring consistently, the Florida forward is on pace for 59 this year. If health isn't an issue, he'll have 50 by the end of March.
Fun fact: Reinhart had an identical total of 13 goals through his first 18 contests last season.
Featured game
Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues
8 p.m. ET, Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Wild (-1.5, +150), -170 money line
Blues (+1.5, -180), +145 money line
Total 5.5: (Over -120, Under +100)
After starting the season 1-0-2, the Wild own a 10-3-1 record, while allowing the fewest goals in the league (2.29/game). Of those 10 victories -- including a 4-1 road decision over the Blues on Oct. 15 -- Minnesota has failed to beat its opponent by a minimum of two goals only once, a tight 2-1 affair against the visiting Maple Leafs. The Wild are a perfect 6-0 when enjoying a minimum of two days off between games, as is the case before visiting the Blues on Tuesday, while St. Louis is coming off a stretch in which it faced three opponents on the road, spanning Thursday to Sunday. The favorite in this game has lost only once in regulation away from home. The Wild at -1.5 (+150) presents as a reasonable number.
One intangible to consider in favor of St. Louis: Starter Jordan Binnington has the opportunity to tie Mike Liut's record for the most wins in Blues history. Though there isn't any great sense of urgency, there's something to be said in support of his teammates bringing a little extra in helping him tie the record at home. Just a thought.
In the player prop department, I like Matt Boldy total shots on goal OVER 3.5 (+103). Leading his club in averaging 3.59 shots/game, the top-line/power-play winger most often comes out firing after registering under that mark in his previous game. On Saturday, the 23-year-old fired on net against the Stars only once.
Ryan Hartman total points OVER 0.5 (+110) is also worth considering. Promoted to the top six and No. 1 power play alongside Kaprizov while Mats Zuccarello remains sidelined, the versatile forward shifts into prime position to get scoring again. After losing two weeks to injury, Hartman finally appears back in the swing, logging almost 19 minutes in his past two contests. Since joining the Wild in 2019, the 30-year-old has averaged 0.56 points/game with an emphasis on the goals. His current four-point tally is well out of character. So, while I don't usually love the he's due narrative, in this case, a return to scoring form seems rather imminent. Plus, for what it's worth, one of his three goals on the year counted against the Blues back on Oct. 15.
For St. Louis, forward Jake Neighbours has been a standout in recent play, skating on a top line and power play with Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich. In the habit of scoring in bunches, the young forward potted a goal in Sunday's loss to Carolina. Consider going with Neighbours total points OVER 0.5 (+115) in support of the winger following that up with his second in as many games. Slotted alongside Brayden Schenn ahead of Tuesday's contest, Neighbours remains on the club's top power play with Robert Thomas (ankle), who's expected back after a multiweek absence.