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NFL betting tips for Thanksgiving: Lines, trends and props that pop

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Field Yates wondering why Dolphins don't throw deep to Tyreek Hill (1:26)

Field Yates is wondering why the Dolphins don't take chances down the field to Tyreek Hill. (1:26)

Week 13 in the NFL gives us a trio of Thanksgiving Day games to get the long holiday weekend underway.

The Chicago Bears (4-7) visit the Detroit Lions (10-1) to kick off the day, followed by an NFC East rivalry game between the New York Giants (2-9) and Dallas Cowboys (4-7).

If a food coma hasn't kicked in, the Thursday night game looks like the best of the bunch, as the Miami Dolphins (5-6) visit the Green Bay Packers (8-3).

But there's still time to get potential bets in before the festivities get going, so check out the lines, props, analysis, trends and our picks below.

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Jump to:
Bears-Lions | Giants-Cowboys | Dolphins-Packers

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0:35
Why Tyler Fulghum likes the underdog Bears against the Lions

Tyler Fulghum explains why he's taking the Bears plus the points against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Bears at Lions (12:30 p.m. ET on CBS)

The first matchup of the day features two teams heading in opposite directions.

The Lions (10-1, 9-2 ATS) have won nine straight and are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl (+275 at ESPN BET). The Bears (4-7, 6-5 ATS), meanwhile, have suffered five straight losses, three in heartbreaking fashion, including Sunday's wild overtime loss after they scored 11 points in the final 22 seconds against the Minnesota Vikings to end regulation.

At +550, Lions QB Jared Goff is the third choice to win MVP, behind only Josh Allen (+130) and Lamar Jackson (+300). Bears QB Caleb Williams opened the season as the Rookie of the Year favorite but has dipped to 40-1 as the fifth choice.

Detroit enters Thursday as an 11-point favorite in a game that currently has the highest points total (48.5) in Week 13.

This is the first matchup between these NFC North rivals this season. They will meet again in Week 16.

Game lines

Spread: Lions -9.5 (Opened Lions -10.5)
Moneyline: Lions -450, Bears +340
Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 48.5)

First-half spread: Lions -6.5 (-115), Bears +6.5 (-105)
Bears total points: 19.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Lions total points: 28.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Player props

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1:27
Can fantasy managers trust the Bears WRs against the Lions?

Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Stephania Bell discuss if the coordinator change has helped the Bears wide receivers.

Passing

Jared Goff total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Goff total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Caleb Williams total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Williams total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +180/Under -235)

Rushing

D'Andre Swift total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -130/Under +105)

Receiving

Amon-Ra St. Brown total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jameson Williams total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
DJ Moore total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Keenan Allen total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Rome Odunze total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Cole Kmet total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Props that Pop

DJ Moore OVER 69.5 receiving yards + receiving TD (+475)

Liz Loza: The apple cider mimosas might have preemptively gone to my head, but I think Moore can finish with 70 receiving yards and a score. His numbers have been up since Thomas Brown was installed as the Bears' OC, hauling in a perfect 14 of 14 balls over his past two games. Additionally, injuries to the Lions' defensive line and secondary have made the team's defense susceptible to the pass, as the unit has allowed the third-most receiving yards (2,059) to opposing wide receivers. And with a projected point total of 48.5, Moore figures to draw plenty of opportunities. Bear down (sorry, Daniel)!

Caleb Williams OVER 33.5 pass attempts

Daniel Dopp: Things are different in Chicago with Thomas Brown leading the offense. The new offensive coordinator has not been shy to rely on the arm of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Williams attempted 31 passes in a 20-19 loss against Green Bay in Week 11 and threw 47 in a 30-27 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. Even though that Vikings game went into overtime, Williams still attempted 46 passes in regulation, so don't think the reason for that volume was the extra quarter in Week 12.

Chicago should again be throwing the ball in bunches against the Lions. Detroit has stifled opposing running backs in a major way, allowing the third-fewest rush attempts and fourth-fewest yards. Pair that with the Lions being 9.5-point favorites as of this writing and it's easy to think Williams will be out here slinging it. The Lions have seen seven different QBs attempt at least 33 passes against them, and I truly believe the shift in the Bears' offensive play-calling should help here.

Another thing to note: the Lions' best CB, Carlton Davis III, was ruled out for Thursday's game because of a knee injury, which could help Williams keep this game mildly competitive. I know Williams has been up and down, but I don't think the Bears' running attack is going to be the thing that keeps them close in this matchup -- it'll be Williams' arm. That's why I'm taking Caleb OVER 33.5 pass attempts.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

  • The Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving games outright (3-4 ATS), but they are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 Thanksgiving games (2-1 ATS under Dan Campbell).

  • The Lions are 9-2 ATS, best in the NFL. They also have the best cover margin (10.4 PPG) through 11 games by any team since 2019 (Ravens and 49ers).

  • The Lions are 44-18 ATS in the Dan Campbell era (.710), by far the best mark in the NFL. They are on pace to be the first team in the Super Bowl era to cover 70% of their games over a four-year span. They could go 0-6 ATS in their final six games and still have the best ATS mark in that span.

  • Campbell is 47-26 ATS in his career as a head coach, the best mark of any coach in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games.

  • The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their past five games, and four of their past five games have gone under the total.

  • The Bears are 0-3 ATS in their past three road games (0-4 outright, 1-3 ATS this season) and 7-14 ATS on the road under Matt Eberflus. Seven straight Bears road games have gone under the total.

  • Home teams are 8-4 ATS on Thursdays this season (home favorites: 5-2 ATS).

  • This will be the 20th meeting between the Lions and Bears on Thanksgiving Day, the second-most common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions' 22 meetings. Chicago leads their Turkey Day series 11-8, including three straight wins, in 2018, 2019 and 2021, with Detroit's last win coming in 2014.

  • The Bears have four wins on Thanksgiving in the past decade, tied with the Cowboys for the most in the NFL and one more than the Lions, despite playing half as many games.

  • The 2024 Lions are the seventh team in the past 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving as the NFL's highest scoring offense. Each of the six previous teams that entered Thanksgiving leading the league in scoring went on to win on Turkey Day.

  • The Lions have scored 40+ points in three straight homes games. With 40 points at home on Thanksgiving, they would tie the longest streak by any team in NFL history.

  • At 10-1 for the first time since 1934, the Lions are the first team to play a Thanksgiving Day game at nine games over .500 or better since the 2015 Carolina Panthers and just the sixth such team in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966). The last four of those teams all won their Thanksgiving Day game by double-digits (the 1995 Kansas City Chiefs lost at the Cowboys).

  • No team has won the Super Bowl after playing on Thanksgiving since the 1995 Cowboys, with the last four teams to make it all the way coming up short.


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0:33
Why Tyler Fulghum favors Cowboys over Giants on Thanksgiving

Tyler Fulghum explains why his favorite play on Thanksgiving comes from the Cowboys-Giants game.

Giants at Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET on Fox)

Things have not gone well for the Giants (2-9, 3-8 ATS) and Cowboys (4-7, 3-8 ATS) this season. But Dallas is coming off an upset victory over the suddenly struggling Washington Commanders that snapped a five-game skid.

Playing their first game since moving on from Daniel Jones, the Giants still could not find their way into the win column, dropping their sixth in a row.

The Cowboys will be the host team, but that might not be good news. Both teams winless at home (Dallas 0-5, New York 0-6).

Dallas won the Week 4 matchup in East Rutherford, New Jersey, 20-15 and is a 4-point favorite in the rematch.

Game lines

Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (Opened Cowboys -3.5)
Moneyline: Cowboys -175, Giants +150
Over/Under: 37.5 (Opened 38.5)

First-half spread: Cowboys -2.5 (-110), Giants +2.5 (-110)
Giants total points: 16.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Cowboys total points: 20.5 (Over -Even/Under -130)

Player props

Passing

Cooper Rush total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Rushing

Rico Dowdle total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Receiving

CeeDee Lamb total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Malik Nabers total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over -Even/Under -130)
Wan'Dale Robinson total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Theo Johnson total receiving yards: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Props that Pop

Rico Dowdle OVER 69.5 rushing yards

Loza: Given the respective talent under center, both backfields figure to be in high demand. Dowdle has averaged 16.5 touches per contest since Week 9, making him Dallas' clear RB1. He has gone over 70 rushing yards in two of his past four games, but the Giants' defense currently leads the NFL in a whopping 5.2 yards per carry allowed. Plus, as 3.5-point home favorites, game flow figures to lean in Dowdle's favor.

Malik Nabers 6+ receptions & CeeDee Lamb 7+ receptions (+180)

Dopp: Last week's prop of Nabers over 5.5 receptions felt like a long shot after the first half, as Malik had zero catches on ZERO targets. Thankfully, the Giants wised up and decided to feed their superstar rookie in the second half, getting him to six receptions. After the game, many of the Giants' locker room leaders had less than kind words about their team's efforts and play-calling, leading coach Brian Daboll to make a few choice comments about getting Malik more involved. I expect that to be the case in this one, as the Giants will need all they can get out of Nabers to keep this game competitive.

The sixth overall pick in this year's draft has hauled in at least six catches in seven of his past eight games, which includes a massive 12 catches for 115 yards in Week 4 against Dallas.

On the other side, CeeDee continues to be a model of consistency in the volume department, seeing at least 12 targets in five of his past six games and grabbing at least seven receptions in all five of those games. Even with his yardage down this year, the volume has continued to stay steady, which gives me a lot of hope against a soft Giants secondary. In their Week 4 showdown (the same one where Malik hit this line), Lamb had seven catches for 98 yards and a TD.

I expect both of these offenses to run through their their premier pass-catchers, which makes for a nice little same-game parlay at plus money. I mean, come on. We've got to have some reason to stay awake and watch this game, right?

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

  • The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their past six games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the past 20 seasons. Their last longer ATS losing streak was a nine-game skid from 2003-04.

  • The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games.

  • The Cowboys are 0-5 outright and ATS at home this season. It's the first time they've lost and have not covered the spread in five straight home games since 1988-89 (10 straight). Overs are 4-1 in Cowboys home games this season.

  • The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS against the Giants since 2017.

  • Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play teams with losing records this season.

  • Since 2021, the Cowboys are 27-13 ATS as favorites and 16-8 ATS as home favorites.

  • Cooper Rush is 6-3 ATS in his career (1-0 ATS as favorite). Tommy DeVito is 4-3 ATS in his career.

  • This will be just the fourth time in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966) that a pair of QBs with fewer than 10 career starts will be meeting in a Thanksgiving Day game. All four of the games will have involved the Cowboys, with Cooper Rush joining the likes of Tony Romo, Drew Henson and Chad Hutchinson. All of those Cowboys QBs won their games.

  • The Cowboys have won seven straight games against the Giants, one shy of tying the fourth-longest win streak for any team against Big Blue all-time.

  • Dallas' seven-game win streak over New York is also tied for the third-longest active win streak by any team against a single opponent, trailing only the Packers over the Bears and Chiefs over the Washington Commanders.

  • This is the first time since 2020 that the Cowboys have entered a Thanksgiving game with a record three games under .500 or worse.

  • For the first time since 1989, and the second time in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966), the Cowboys are off to an 0-5 start at home. In 1989, the Cowboys went 0-8 at home and 1-15 overall.

  • The Cowboys have allowed 37.4 PPG at home this season, well above their 22.0 mark in six road games. And the 37.4 PPG allowed this season at home isn't just the most in the NFL. It's the most any team has allowed in their first five home games of the season since the 1981 Baltimore Colts allowed 38.2 and the second-most in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966).


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0:39
Why Tyler Fulghum likes the under in Dolphins-Packers

Tyler Fulghum explains why he likes the under in the Dolphins' matchup vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving.

Dolphins at Packers (8:20 p.m. ET on NBC)

The Thanksgiving nightcap features two teams on the upswing.

The Dolphins (5-6, 5-6 ATS) have won three straight following a three-game skid, and the Packers (8-3, 5-6 ATS) have won six of seven.

Green Bay sits in third place in a what is a stacked NFC North at the top of the division but is -2000 to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami is trying to keeps its postseason hopes alive after climbing to +240.

The Packers, fresh off a 38-10 blowout of the shorthanded San Francisco 49ers, are 3-point favorites at Lambeau.

Game lines

Spread: Packers -3.5 (Opened Packers -3.5)
Moneyline: Packers -170, Dolphins +145
Over/Under: 47.5 (Opened 47.5)

First-half spread: Packers -2.5 (-110), Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
Dolphins total points: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Packers total points: 25.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Player props

Passing

Jordan Love total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -Even/Under -130)
Love total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Tua Tagovailoa total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Tagovailoa total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Rushing

Josh Jacobs total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
De'Von Achane total rushing yards: 49.5 (Over -140/Under +110)

Receiving

Jayden Reed total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Christian Watson total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Dontayvion Wicks total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Tucker Kraft total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Tyreek Hill total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Jaylen Waddle total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Jonnu Smith total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -130/Under -Even)
Achane total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Betting trends and more

Courtesy ESPN Research

  • The Dolphins have covered four straight games since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. They started the season 1-6 ATS and 0-3 ATS in Tagovailoa starts.

  • The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in games 32 degrees and below under Matt LaFleur including playoffs. The Dolphins are 0-6 outright in their past six such games (2-4 ATS).

  • The Packers are 55-39 ATS under LaFleur, the second-best ATS record since 2019 (Lions). They are 29-18 ATS at home under LaFleur, also second-best in that span (Lions).

  • The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their past six games on short rest.

  • The Packers are 18-11 ATS in prime-time games under LaFleur.

  • Home teams are 8-4 ATS on Thursdays this season (home favorites: 5-2 ATS).

  • This will be the third time the Packers have played a home game on Thanksgiving Day, with the others coming in 1923 defeating the Hammond Pros and in 2015 when they lost to the Bears after entering that game as a 9-point favorite.

  • Including the playoffs, the Dolphins have lost 11 straight games in sub-40 degree temperatures at kickoff, with their last such win coming in 2016 in Week 16 at Buffalo. That's tied for the second-longest losing streak in such temperatures over the last 25 seasons.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 0-4 in his NFL career (including playoffs) in sub-40 degree temperatures at kickoff. That includes a loss in Kansas City last year when the temperature was -4 degrees at the start of the game, the coldest game on record in Dolphins team history and the fourth-coldest game in NFL postseason history. In those four games, Tua has a 55% completion rate with four TDS and five INTs, posting a Total QBR of 21.

  • Since 2006 when ESPN began first tracking Total QBR, Tagovailoa's 21 Total QBR in sub-40 degree weather at kickoff is the worst by any QB that has made at least four such starts in that span, regular season or playoffs.


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