Focus on... Contenders or pretenders?
It's quite clear from the fallout to Canada that the 2015 season - and F1 in general - needs something other than a Mercedes victory this weekend. Ferrari hoped its engine upgrades ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix would find an additional 20 BHP - which would theoretically have seen it at least match Mercedes based on its performances in the early rounds.
As we know now, that challenge never came to fruition. Maurizio Arrivabene was right to say circumstances exaggerated the gap to Mercedes in Montreal, how much so will be revealed in Austria. The longer run pace earlier in the weekend suggested Mercedes and Ferrari could be on a par, at least on the prime tyre. Kimi Raikkonen never stayed close enough to demonstrate whether that could have been a factor before his podium-costing spin. Add the fact Sebastian Vettel, who has had the stronger results this season, was battling from the back of the field and its easy (or hopeful) to think an uncomfortable afternoon turned into a routine walk in the park for Mercedes. Ferrari will need both drivers on form to stand a chance and Canada showed the danger of letting Mercedes lock out the front row. Splitting the Mercedes pair on Saturday with at least one car is an absolute must.
Away from Ferrari a third contender could pose a threat of an upset. It was in Austria, after all, that Felipe Massa recorded the only non-Mercedes pole position of 2014 as Williams locked out the front row. The long straights of Austria mean drivers spend 65% of the lap at full throttle, a stat which should worry any driver sitting in front of a Renault or Honda power unit this weekend. But for Williams this weekend represents a great opportunity to get back to the position it established itself in from Austria onwards last season.
Away from the front, McLaren (see below) and Red Bull should brace themselves for difficult weekends. Red Bull may start the second race at the Red Bull Ring from the back of the grid, with the team talking up the possibility of moving both drivers onto penalty-incurring fifth components at a circuit where a strong weekend seems unlikely. After struggling at the team's home race last year, Christian Horner publicly criticised Renault (something which has been more commonplace in 2015) so taking an engine penalty would at least avoid similar fallout this time around.
In need of points
McLaren left Canada in disarray after a double retirement and the first sign of frustration from either driver during a period of heavy fuel saving. The team will be up against it from the get-go in Austria - the Red Bull Ring's long straights and seven corners are hardly ideal for a team lacking power. Outwardly, it is hard to see the significant progress the team proclaims it is making. Performance is not the only issue; Fernando Alonso has retired from each of the last three races and still has nothing next to his name. For a team like McLaren and a driver like Alonso that situation has to be deemed unacceptable, new power unit or no.
In need of a podium
Ferrari failed to finish on the podium for the first time of the season in Canada. That was down to a number of circumstances which possibly masked the gains made with its upgraded power unit and allowed Williams to pounce. With Mercedes power Williams will be a threat at the Red Bull Ring, a circuit where it locked out the front row of the grid last year. At this stage of the season Ferrari cannot afford to be fighting for scraps with Williams if it has genuine ambitions of taking the fight to Mercedes.
ESPN prediction
It's hard to look past Lewis Hamilton in Austria. The reigning world champion has been in top form all season and seems to have found a measure over Nico Rosberg in qualifying, something which was not the case in 2014. With the Red Bull Ring a circuit Mercedes will excel at it's difficult to look past a one-two, though the team proved last year mistakes can be made. However, if it can avoid mistakes, this is another race between the Mercedes drivers which looks likely to be won and lost in qualifying. Williams will be a threat and we're backing Valtteri Bottas to split Hamilton and Rosberg on the podium.
Betting
Lewis Hamilton is favourite to win in Austria with odds of 1/2. The bookies have different levels of faith in the Ferrari drivers, with odds of 10/1 for Sebastian Vettel and 25/1 for Kimi Raikkonen. Fernando Alonso is 8/1 to be the first retirement.
Weather
Scattered rain showers are forecast for Friday and Saturday before a cooler, dry race on Sunday. This will be interesting for a number of reasons - it will force teams to run on wet tyres in practice, something we didn't see in Monaco or Canada, as it may have an impact later in the weekend. The heaviest chance of rain is at 70% for Saturday afternoon, just in time for qualifying.
Tyre talk
Prime: Soft
Option: Supersoft
Likely strategy: Two stop
Paul Hembery, Pirelli motorsport director, says: "Austria ends the run of soft and supersoft nominations that we see towards the middle of the season, on quite a diverse variety of tracks. The tyre strategy will depend on some extent to the weather: if it is warm we are more likely to see two stops, whereas if it's cool the balance might shift towards a one-stopper. Rain is also a distinct possibility in Styria at this time of year, as we saw during free practice last season, so the teams will basically have to be prepared for everything. This year, the drivers head to the Red Bull Ring with real data about the track for the first time, which will help them find the most efficient way to use the tyres. Obviously our aim is always to have between two and three stops at every race, so this is something that we will monitor carefully in future when it comes to nominations: we do have the possibility to make some minor changes if required. We're only expecting a small time gap between the two compounds in Austria, so this opens up a number of different possibilities as to how to run the race strategy."
Power play
Renault Sport details the stresses and strains the Red Bull Ring places on the main components of the power unit.
ICE: The circuit consists of four long straights, meaning the ICE runs at full throttle for over 60% of the lap. This figure is comparable with Spa and Monza. The longest straight is the 800m drag from Turn 1 through to Turn 2. The circuit falls slightly downhill from the first corner before climbing back up. The fluids in the internals of the ICE will be 'squashed' when the car drops and then unloaded when the car crests the hill. The straight from Turn 2 to Turn 3 sees the circuit descend once again. With the car carrying extra momentum, speeds peak at over 320kph just before the braking point to Turn 3.
Turbocharger: Correct drive and response on the exits of the corners is critical since five of the nine corners are followed by a long straight. Any hesitation from the turbo will compromise acceleration and, ultimately, lap time.
One of the main challenges of Austria is the high altitude. The circuit is around 700m above sea level, and oxygen content will be around 7% less. The turbo will therefore have to spin at a much higher rate to produce the same amount of power to compensate for the low ambient pressure. For the majority of the lap the turbo will be spinning at close to 100,000rpm, or 1,700 times per second.
MGU-K:There are really only seven corners at the Red Bull Ring, which will not give the MGU-K many opportunities to recover significant energy under braking. However teams will need the MGU-K to feed the ICE with extra power down the straights, so making efficient use of the little energy recovered will be extremely important.
The hardest braking spot on the circuit is Turn 2. The drivers will approach the blind entry in excess of 300kph and brake down to second gear and around 65kph. The circuit drops away after the apex so the driver is immediately on the throttle to maximise the acceleration onto the straight. The other big stops on the lap are Turn 1, 3 and 9. Each of the corners is taken at an average of 120kph and either third or fourth gear.
MGU-H: The long straights mean the MGU-H has plenty of opportunity to recover energy to store in the battery. With a lap time of around 70secs, 46secs (or 65% of the lap) is spent at full throttle. The flowing complex at the back of the circuit from Turns 4 to 7 is taken at an average of 200kph and between fourth and sixth gear. The driver feeds in the throttle to keep the momentum going and roll into the corners. This generates a steady stream of exhaust, which the MGU-H will recover to feed back to the battery or ICE directly.